Football writer Ben Bloom looks at the contrasts between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City ahead of their meeting at the City Ground on Saturday.
TV Info - Broadcasters
One team overperforming, one team underperforming, and just a single point to separate them in the Premier League table: Saturday lunchtime’s visit of Manchester City to Nottingham Forest promises to be a fascinating battle.
On offer to the victor is third place – a position long occupied by Nuno Espirito Santo’s side, whose indifferent recent form has seen them slip closer to an ever-growing chasing pack with their own aspirations of competing in next season's UEFA Champions League.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +28 | 71 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
38 | +21 | 69 |
| 5 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
38 | +21 | 66 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +7 | 66 |
| 7 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
38 | +12 | 65 |
| 8 |
Brighton
BHA
|
38 | +7 | 61 |
| 9 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
38 | +12 | 56 |
| 10 |
Brentford
BRE
|
38 | +9 | 56 |
Nuno will doubtless stick to the fast and direct principles that have served his side so unexpectedly well this season, while his counterpart, Pep Guardiola, rarely deviates from City’s slow, intricate style.
Who will prevail? And what impact will it have on their respective quests for Champions League football next season?
Contrasting styles
Rewind to the start of the campaign and no one would have foreseen the current state these teams find themselves in.
After battling relegation in each of the last two seasons, Forest have defied all expectations to put themselves firmly in the running for Europe, beating the likes of Manchester United, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur during an eight-match unbeaten league run around Christmas and New Year.
As their form has faltered – picking up just four points from the last 15 available – City’s has improved.
Forest's last five PL results
The four-time reigning Premier League champions found themselves in the unfamiliar position of seventh at Christmas, but have since only lost to title-chasing Liverpool and Arsenal, climbing back into the top four.
After a disappointing campaign that has brought early exits in the Champions League and EFL Cup, qualifying for Europe’s top-tier competition next season – which appears likely to require finishing in the top five – is a bare minimum.
When the two sides last met in early December, City ran out comprehensive 3-0 winners despite the match coming bang in the middle of their worst run of form.
That match epitomised the contrasting styles of both sides, with City enjoying double the possession (66.6 per cent to 33.4 per cent) and making more than double the number of passes (583 to 288), but playing fewer long balls (33 to 34).
By now, Guardiola’s method is familiar to all. Opta Analyst has found that, despite their struggles this campaign, City are on course to top the Premier League rankings for average possession (60.6 per cent) and successful passes per match (540) for the ninth successive season since Guardiola took charge.
In fact, the Spaniard’s teams have topped both of those charts in all 17 seasons he has managed at City, Bayern Munich and Barcelona.
Forest, meanwhile, have this season proven there are different approaches to yield success. Nuno has deployed his side to be compact in defence when out of possession, soaking up pressure – and even inviting opponents to break them down – before launching lethal counter-attacks.
Led by Chris Wood, who has 18 Premier League goals, they have been clinical when they do eventually gain the ball.
They average the fewest number of passes per open-play sequence (2.8) and have the lowest average possession (39.7 per cent) in the Premier League.
In many senses, they are the polar opposite to City.
While City start their open-play possessions further from their own goalline (46.2 metres) than any other top-flight team, only Ipswich Town (39.3m) begin closer than Forest (39.4m).
City’s open-play sequences last a Premier League-high average of 15.7 seconds, whereas Forest’s average of 7.4 seconds is the lowest in the competition.
Yet although Forest have kept more clean sheets (11) in the Premier League than any other side except Liverpool (12), only two of those shutouts have come in their last seven matches.
They have noticeably started to falter, seeing a six-point buffer to fourth place almost evaporate entirely. Is fatigue kicking in?
No team have used fewer players in the Premier League this season than Forest’s 23, and 12 of those have featured in at least 85 per cent of league matches.
Conversely, only Ipswich have made more changes to their starting line-ups in the Premier League this season, with 80, than Guardiola's 77.
Without European football to distract them after last month’s Champions League knockout-round playoff defeat by Real Madrid, it would make sense for City’s large squad to re-energise as they enter what has traditionally been their strongest period at the climax of the season.
Nuno's City record
“It’s very exciting because we’re going to play a very good team full of exciting players,” said Nuno ahead of the City fixture. “They have a manager who has had an impact and changed football so it is a big challenge for us.
“They had absentees who are now returning and improving their levels of performance, and they’ve been able to adjust the squad with players of quality so it’s certainly going to be harder and it will be a very tough game.”
Considering City’s dominance over English football in recent years, Nuno does not have a bad record against them, guiding Wolves to a Premier League double over Guardiola’s side in 2019/20, and inflicting a defeat during his short-lived Spurs tenure in 2021.
However, Forest are winless in their last nine league matches against City, since a victory when both sides were in the second tier in 1997.
That season ended with Forest earning promotion back to the Premier League and City being relegated to the third tier.
Both sides’ ambitions are vastly different nowadays as the pair converge on Saturday.