Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will Nottingham Forest fall into European muddle?
- Have Arsenal have solved their striker problem after big win?
- Can Barnes help Newcastle get back on track in this critical moment?
- Can Mateta-less Palace improve home form?
- Can Villa recover their away form and take final chance to fight for the top five?
- Which form team will see their Champions League hopes significantly dented?
- Is this, finally, the moment Palmer rediscovers his verve?
- Is this the chance for Nunez to break his duck – and Salah to break records?
- How will Wolves adapt without Cunha?
- Have Bournemouth already peaked?
Will Nottingham Forest fall into European muddle?
All of a sudden Nottingham Forest’s position in the top four is under major threat. Having failed to win any of their last three Premier League matches, defeat at home to Manchester City on Saturday would see Pep Guardiola’s side rise above them in the table.
Forest could even end the weekend only two points above eighth, or in other words, right in the middle of the slog for European football.
After winning just four points in their last five Premier League matches, their buffer has completely disappeared.
In that time, their average ‘Expected Goals conceded’ has risen from 1.1 per game to 1.7 per game while their number of errors leading to an opposition shot has doubled from 0.4 per game to 0.8 per game.
The most likely reason for their decline is fatigue. Twelve Forest players have featured in at least 85 per cent of their Premier League matches this season, including seven appearing in at least 26 of the 27.
It would be no surprise if they were tired and they now face playing a refreshed and re-energised Man City.
Only Liverpool (22) and Arsenal (18) have won more points in the Premier League in 2025 than the 16 of City. Guardiola's side have won four of their last six, losing only to Liverpool and Arsenal.
Slowly but surely Man City have played their way into form. Nottingham Forest are in their sights.
Have Arsenal have solved their striker problem after big win?
Smashing seven past PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League was a pretty emphatic way to reject the notion that Arsenal’s lack of a striker is holding them back.
Two consecutive Premier League matches without a goal now feels like a distant memory.
But of course PSV played a big part in that result, and if Arsenal are to continue in this groove – if Martin Odegaard and Ethan Nwaneri are to play with such purpose and creativity – then they will need Manchester United in poor form.
That they are. United, who have lost their last four Premier League meetings against Arsenal, scraped past Ipswich Town last weekend but still look unsure of themselves.
Any hesitancy in defence or porousness through midfield, which we’ve seen all-too often under Ruben Amorim, and a newly rejuvenated Arsenal should be able to score freely.
If only it was that simple. Arsenal have failed win half of their Premier League fixtures following a UEFA Champions League match this season, and there is no doubt United at Old Trafford will present a tougher challenge than PSV.
This is a huge test of Arsenal’s progress; of how much they learnt from the destruction of PSV in Europe.
Can Barnes help Newcastle get back on track in this critical moment?
This is a crucial juncture in Newcastle United's season. Out of the FA Cup, they must recover quickly as they seek Champions League qualification and an EFL Cup final victory in a fortnight’s time.
This is not the moment for heads to drop or form to flounder, yet Newcastle have won only six points from their last six Premier League matches and will be without the suspended Anthony Gordon this weekend.
If the Brighton & Hove Albion result gets to them, things could fall apart rather quickly for Eddie Howe’s side.
Unfortunately for them, West Ham United have won back-to-back Premier League matches and are looking to make it three in a row for the first time since December 2023.
Graham Potter is starting to get a firm grip on things and will sense any weakness in the Newcastle setup.
But the Magpies do have one secret weapon here. Harvey Barnes, likely to deputise for Gordon, has scored six goals against West Ham, more than he has against any other Premier League side.
Newcastle cannot afford to go into the EFL Cup final against Liverpool off the back of three consecutive losses. They need Barnes to be at his best.
Can Mateta-less Palace improve home form?
Is there really any more room in the top half for European hopefuls? Maybe not, but Crystal Palace’s fantastic form has put them in with an outside chance of doing something special.
In the 14 Matchweeks since 3 December, only Liverpool (33) and Arsenal (29) have earned more points than Palace (27).
That is a remarkable statistic showing that, on the current trajectory, Oliver Glasner’s side could just do it.
But they may have to learn how to cope without Jean-Philippe Mateta for the time being, and that could prove to be their undoing.
Mateta has scored or assisted in seven of the last eight matches, amassing nine in total in that time or 60 per cent of Palace’s total of 15 goals.
Their first test without him – with Eddie Nketiah leading the line – should be instructive.
Palace haven’t lost any of their last 18 Premier League home matches against sides starting the day in the relegation zone (W12 D6), a run that goes all the way back to February 2017, while Ipswich remain winless in the Premier League in 2025.
Glasner's side really should be able win this one. Any sort of struggle in front of goal will indicate that Palace cannot maintain a European charge without Mateta.
Can Villa recover their away form and take final chance to fight for the top five?
Aston Villa are running out of chances. Going strong in the Champions League and FA Cup means this could still be a season to remember, but one win in seven Premier League matches has left them all the way down in 10th place.
If there is any hope left of a top-five finish, Villa simply have to use the win at Club Bruge as a springboard to ending their poor away form. Unai Emery’s side have collected just four points from the last 27 available on the road.
Brentford are winless in in their last six at the Gtech Community Stadium, however, offering Villa the chance to break the spell and find a way back into Champions League contention.
But this really is it. Away matches at Brighton & Hove Albion, Man City, AFC Bournemouth, and Man Utd are to come, and their form at Villa Park alone cannot lift them into the top five. It’s win or bust for Villa.
Which form team will see their Champions League hopes significantly dented?
With the amount of quality and experience around them, there just isn’t enough room in the top eight for both Brighton and Fulham. The chances of both teams playing in Europe next season are very slim.
This is an important six-pointer then. Both sides come into it full of confidence and expecting victory.
Brighton have won each of their last three Premier League matches, only once winning four top-flight matches in a row back in 1981. Meanwhile Fulham have triumphed in their last three away fixtures in the competition, last winning more in 1966.
Brighton have won five in a row across all competitions and are flying thanks to Danny Welbeck, Joao Pedro and Yankuba Minteh, yet Fulham have scored in each of their last 12 Premier League away matches, netting exactly twice in each of their last six.
Something’s got to give. The winner will remain in the Champions League hunt. The loser could possibly fall out of it altogether.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
27 | +8 | 44 |
| 7 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
27 | +13 | 43 |
| 8 |
Brighton
BHA
|
27 | +5 | 43 |
| 9 |
Fulham
FUL
|
27 | +4 | 42 |
| 10 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
28 | -5 | 42 |
Is this, finally, the moment Palmer rediscovers his verve?
“Don’t worry, I will be back,” Cole Palmer said on Instagram after drawing another blank in Chelsea's 4-0 victory over Southampton a fortnight ago.
Surely this is the time for Palmer to get a goal or assist. It’s been six games now – his longest drought since joining Chelsea – and the way he misplaced passes and snatched at chances against the bottom club suggests it is starting to get to him.
Indeed over the last six matches he has failed to score from a combined Expected Goals (xG) of 2.43. Thankfully for him, the next opponent is leaking goals.
Leicester City have been beaten in 11 of their last 12 Premier League matches, losing four in a row to nil while conceding at least twice.
Palmer, meanwhile, has seven goals and four assists in just nine matches against promoted teams for Chelsea.
This, surely, is the one.
Is this the chance for Nunez to break his duck – and Salah to break records?
It would be the shock result of the season if Liverpool dropped points here.
There are 58 points separating the top and bottom clubs and the hosts, buoyed by their victory at Paris Saint-Germain in midweek, seem certain to blow away a side that have lost nine of their last 10 Premier League matches.
So here is a big chance for Darwin Nunez, an excellent team player who only frustrates in the execution of his shot.
Nunez has now gone six Premier League matches without a goal, and had gone nine games in all competitions without a goal or assist until a superb contribution in Paris, setting up Harvey Elliott’s winner.
Will that moment restore some confidence? We will find out when Nunez lines up against the league’s leakiest defence, with Southampton conceding 65 goals this season.
This is also a chance for Mohamed Salah to move closer to a couple of records. He is only three assists short of the current single-season record of 20, and only two short of the goal involvement record that stands at 42.
It’s not inconceivable both will fall on Saturday.
How will Wolves adapt without Cunha?
Matheus Cunha’s suspension might just plunge Wolverhampton Wanderers back into relegation trouble. The five-point gap to Ipswich doesn’t look quite so big anymore.
Cunha has scored 13 goals and assisted a further four - 46 per cent of Wolves’ Premier League total - and worth a full 10 points to the team in 2024/25.
It isn’t clear how Wolves are going to replace his influence, not just in pulling goals out of nowhere, but commanding the game from between the lines.
That sort of ingenuity is vital against David Moyes’s Everton, who are now unbeaten in their last seven.
Defeat for Wolves might cause a wobble. Cunha - set to miss matches against Southampton and West Ham, too – has been their driving force. If nobody can step up in his absence Wolves may stop believing they can pull away from danger.
Have Bournemouth already peaked?
Just as Tottenham Hotspur are speeding up, Bournemouth are slowing down.
Ange Postecoglou’s side have recovered well since their injury problems cleared up, and will relish Sunday’s encounter with fifth-placed Bournemouth, who all of a sudden don’t look like Champions League contenders.
They have lost three of their last four Premier League matches and only beat Wolves in the FA Cup on penalties. The problem – all-too familiar for Postecoglou and Spurs fans – is tiredness.
Bournemouth (300) and Spurs (299) have recorded the most pressures resulting in a turnover in the final third this season, reflecting their relentless pressing and exhausting style.
If the visitors are indeed on the decline, then a rejuvenated Spurs will win a high-octane match and push Andoni Iraola’s side back down towards mid-table.
