Will race for Europe be the closest EVER?

Football writer Tom Hancock looks at the clubs in contention for a place in either the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League or the UEFA Conference League.

As the Premier League season heads into its final three months, the race for Europe is nothing short of enthralling.

After the latest round of matches, just five points separate Manchester City in fourth and Aston Villa in 10th, although Villa have played 28 games to the 27 played by most of their rivals, having faced Liverpool earlier than originally scheduled due to the Reds’ involvement in the EFL Cup final.

Even the sides currently placed 11th and 12th, Brentford and Crystal Palace, are still just about in contention to grab a European spot for 2025/26.

The Premier League could potentially have as many as 10 representatives across UEFA’s three continental competitions – the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa League and UEFA Conference League – next season. We’ve rarely, if ever, seen anything like this.

Race for Europe

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Liverpool LIV	28	+40	67
2	Arsenal ARS	27	+28	54
3	Nott'm Forest NFO	27	+11	48
4	Man City MCI	27	+16	47
5	Chelsea CHE	27	+16	46
6	Newcastle NEW	27	+8	44
7	Bournemouth BOU	27	+13	43
8	Brighton BHA	27	+5	43
9	Fulham FUL	27	+4	42
10	Aston Villa AVL	28	-5	42
11	Brentford BRE	27	+5	38
12	Crystal Palace CRY	27	+2	36

View More

What positions get what?

Firstly, the teams who finish first to fourth in the Premier League all qualify for the league phase of the 2025/26 Champions League, with no need to go through any qualifying rounds.

On top of that, the team who finish fifth qualify for the league phase of the 2025/26 Europa League, with no need to go through any qualifying rounds. The same goes for the winners of the FA Cup.

The EFL Cup winners qualify for the playoff round of the 2025/26 Conference League, the final qualifying round before the league phase of that competition.

So, as things stand, based on Premier League position, Liverpool, Arsenal, Nottingham Forest and Man City would qualify for next season’s Champions League, and Chelsea would earn a spot in next season’s Europa League.

However, the various qualification spots can change for a number of reasons.

Will fifth place be enough for the Champions League?

Since the expansion of the Champions League from 32 to 36 teams, UEFA have granted two leagues an extra qualification spot. These extra berths are awarded to the two leagues from the countries which place highest in UEFA’s coefficient rankings, which are determined by clubs' performances in UEFA competition.

At present, England and Spain rank first and second respectively, meaning the Premier League and LaLiga would each have five clubs in next season’s Champions League, up from their standard four. In that event, as things stand, Chelsea would take the fifth qualification spot.

There could even be as many as SEVEN English clubs in the 2025/26 Champions League. That would be the case if the Premier League's top five all qualified by virtue of their league position; if a Premier League side won this season’s Champions League but finished outside the top five; and if Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United, currently 13th and 14th in the Premier League respectively and highly unlikely to climb into the top five, won this season’s Europa League.

If the above were to happen, half of the Premier League could be competing in Europe next season: seven clubs in the Champions League, two in the Europa League and one in the Conference League.

Is this the tightest race ever?

Only once in Premier League history have fewer points separated fourth and 10th in the table at this stage of the campaign. That was back in 2001, when Liverpool sat fourth after 27 games, four points ahead of 10th-placed Southampton, who had played a game more.

But the gap between fourth and 10th at the beginning of March has never been this small since the Premier League first received a fourth Champions League spot – for the 2002/03 season, when first and second qualified for the group stage and third and fourth went into the third qualifying round. That season, seven points separated fourth-placed Everton and 10th-placed Southampton on 1 March.

What does the form say?

Unsurprisingly, runaway leaders Liverpool are the Premier League’s form team at the moment. Arne Slot’s side haven’t lost in the league since a 1-0 home defeat to Forest in Matchweek 4 and sit 21 points clear of fifth place. Never mind the chasing pack; it would take an unfathomably catastrophic collapse for the Reds not to secure a Champions League qualification.

Second-placed Arsenal, meanwhile, have an eight-point cushion to fifth and look well-placed to qualify for the Champions League for a third year running.

Clubs' most points won last 10 matches

Key: W=win, D=draw, L=loss 

A further six points back are Nottingham Forest on 48 points in third, which is where the most intense portion of the race for Europe really begins. Behind Forest, Man City have 47 points, Chelsea 46, Newcastle United 44, and AFC Bournemouth and Brighton & Hove Albion both on 43.

Looking back at the last 10 matches, Newcastle and Brighton have the best form of those sides who sit within five points of the top four, with the latter’s three-match winning run the longest active winning streak in the Premier League.

Could Brighton soon be playing Champions League football for the first time in their history, only 14 years after they were playing in the third tier at the makeshift Withdean Stadium?

And Crystal Palace are in even better form right now, having taken 20 points from the last 30 available. Currently 12th on 36 points, Palace have a bit of catching up to do, but it’s not inconceivable that they could qualify for a major UEFA competition for the first time, having only previously participated in the 1998 Intertoto Cup.

At the other end of the scale, Chelsea’s 10-game form is the worst in the top half, and the Blues haven’t strung together successive Premier League victories since mid-December. Winning the Conference League would guarantee a spot in the 2025/26 Europa League, but head coach Enzo Maresca has made it clear that Champions League qualification is the target.

Who has the better fixtures and are there any quirks?

So, which teams in this gripping European battle have the easiest and hardest run-ins on paper?

Using the Fantasy Premier League’s Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) system, which ranks the perceived difficulty of each fixture from one (easy) to five (hard) in, we can find out.

Clubs' highest FDR

Fulham's hopes for European qualification are set to undergo a serious test, with each of their next five fixtures scoring three or higher: the average FDR for the Fulham's remaining 11 games is the highest of any of the Premier League top 12.

Marco Silva's team still have to face six sides above them, including four of the top five – Arsenal, Liverpool Chelsea and Man City.

In contrast, Forest and Newcastle’s run-ins are the kindest. Six of Forest’s last 11 matches are against sides in the bottom eight of the table, although they do host Man City next.

Newcastle have the same average FDR between now and the end of the campaign, but back-to-back encounters at home to Chelsea and away to Arsenal in Matchweeks 36 and 37 could have a big bearing on their Champions League qualification prospects.

Given their form, Chelsea’s run-in appears particularly daunting: the Blues still have to play Arsenal, Fulham, Newcastle and Forest away, as well as Liverpool at home.

However, the team they would currently have to dislodge to move into the top four, Man City, have a kinder-looking set of remaining fixtures: Pep Guardiola’s side only face one team currently above them in the table, Forest away next time out, before hosting two of the bottom four and travelling to bottom-placed Southampton in April and May.