Ahead of Liverpool v Newcastle United in the EFL Cup final on Sunday, David Segar of Opta Analyst takes a look at five factors that could decide the Wembley showdown.
It's come a little later than normal due to the reorganisation of the English calendar thanks to the new UEFA Champions League format, but it's almost time for the first final of the season.
The 2024/25 EFL Cup final will be staged this Sunday at Wembley Stadium, with the competition's record winners Liverpool facing a team who have never lifted the trophy, Newcastle United.
As it happens, Liverpool’s exit from the UEFA Champions League at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday has cast a shadow over their preparation for the final, though they can take solace from the fact they hold a 15-point lead in the Premier League.
They can be very optimistic about winning some sort of silverware in Arne Slot’s maiden season as boss; the Dutchman will be hoping to get his first one over the line on Sunday.
Newcastle go into the match on the back of a hard-fought league win at West Ham United on Monday, and will be looking to end a 70-year drought without winning a domestic cup.
Ahead of their duel, we've picked out five key areas where the final could be decided.
Newcastle bereft down the left
Both sides will be missing key personnel in wide areas for the final, but Newcastle’s problems on the left flank are particularly significant. Eddie Howe will be without both of his first-choice players down that side.
Anthony Gordon is suspended following his red card against Brighton & Hove Albion in the FA Cup, while Lewis Hall has been ruled out for the rest of the season after undergoing surgery on a foot injury.
Both players have been near ever-presents for Newcastle this campaign. Only Dan Burn (2,430 minutes) and Bruno Guimaraes (2,423) have played more minutes than Hall (2,189) and Gordon (2,108), with the pair missing just three league meetings between them.
Defensively, Newcastle’s left flank has been one of their most secure areas of the pitch, with opposition teams intentionally choosing other avenues to attack down.
Newcastle’s opponents have averaged just 33.8 per cent of their attacking touches down their left, which is the second-lowest rate of any side in the Premier League this season.
It’s a small sample size, granted, but in the one game the pair have missed in the league — Monday’s win at West Ham — the Hammers focused 37.1 per cent of their attacks down Newcastle's left side, a notable increase on Newcastle's seasonal average.
Hall would have been expected to keep tabs on Mohamed Salah at Wembley, and his injury means Tino Livramento is set to come up against the Egyptian.
Livramento has also been a regular for Newcastle this season, but it’s been mainly from the right side of defence. His versatility means he’ll be moved to the left for this.
Hall is a big miss. He’s been an aggressive and effective defender, averaging more tackles per 90 (1.7) and boasting a better tackle success rate (70.7 per cent) than any other Newcastle player.
He’s also offered a reliable outlet in possession, helping progress play down the left.
With him out, the key battle will now be between Salah and Livramento, and the Egyptian’s record against Newcastle is ominous. He’s directly contributed to 18 goals in 16 appearances against them in all competitions (10 goals, eight assists).
Only against Manchester United (22) and Manchester City (21) has Salah registered more goal involvements for Liverpool.
With Liverpool also missing both of their senior right-backs — Trent Alexander-Arnold and Conor Bradley — Newcastle will be frustrated not to have Gordon available to exploit that vulnerability.
The England winger has attempted more dribbles (82) than any Newcastle player in the Premier League this season and also leads the team for chances created following a ball carry (32).
Gordon's pace and direct running would have posed a major threat to Liverpool's likely stand-in at right-back, Jarell Quansah.
Harvey Barnes will be aiming to replicate that should he be given the nod for Newcastle on the left wing.
Newcastle the masters at breaking things up
One of Newcastle’s greatest strengths under Howe has been their ability to disrupt the rhythm of high-stakes matches. Whether through delaying restarts, drawing fouls or engaging in midfield duels, they’ve become experts in managing the game’s tempo.
Overall in the league this season, the ball has been in play 56 per cent of the time in Newcastle’s matches.
Liverpool, on the other hand, play in matches where the ball’s in play almost 58 per cent of the time, putting the two clubs at opposite ends of the spectrum.
In higher-profile fixtures, Newcastle’s number tends to dip even further. In their home meeting against Liverpool in December— a match in which they led twice before being pegged back — the ball was in play just 54.9 per cent of the time.
When Newcastle beat Arsenal 1-0 in November, that figure dropped to 53.4 per cent.
They’re particularly effective at disrupting the flow when ahead, turning matches into a series of physical duels and stop-start passages of play.
Their physical midfield plays a key role in that approach. Only four midfielders have committed more fouls than Joelinton (51), while Guimaraes has been fouled (or won a free-kick) 92 times in the Premier League this season, almost 40 more times than any other player.
Teams have picked up 73 yellow cards against Newcastle – only Aston Villa (78) and Nottingham Forest (75) have earned more. It’s clearly hugely frustrating to play against such a well-drilled side.
Isak vs Van Dijk
In Alexander Isak and Virgil van Dijk, you could make the argument that, on current form, this match will feature the Premier League’s best striker and defender.
Isak has scored 22 goals in all competitions this season, including 15 in his last 14 league matches.
That run started with his excellent strike against Liverpool at St. James’ Park in early December.
In fact, Isak has an impressive record against Liverpool. He's had a hand in four goals across his five appearances against them (three goals, one assist). As well as scoring in the 3-3 draw in December, he also provided an assist for Gordon.
Isak's ability to find the net could also prove crucial on Sunday given how often finals are decided by the odd goal.
All three of his strikes against Liverpool have either put Newcastle 1-0 up (twice) or drawn them level (once).
Isak didn’t play in the clubs' meeting at Anfield last month, which had a noticeable impact on Newcastle, who managed to have just three shots and failed to have a single shot on target in a Premier League match for only the second time this season (also vs Crystal Palace in November).
They had only done this in one league match across 2020/21, 2021/22, 2022/23 and 2023/24 combined before this campaign.
Isak will go head-to-head with Van Dijk again, which is among the toughest assignments in football.
Liverpool’s captain has returned to his best form this season as he has led them to a strong lead at the top of the Premier League. He'll be looking to lift the EFL Cup for a second successive season, having headed in the winner himself against Chelsea at Wembley in 2023/24.
Of defenders in the Premier League this season, only three have won more aerial duels than Van Dijk (89 of 125) and only two have a better overall duel success rate than his 69.4 per cent (minimum 300 minutes played).
Isak is also going to press Van Dijk in possession, with the Dutchman attempting (2,266) and completing (2,082) the most passes in the Premier League of any player this season, while his total of 603 successful forward passes is at least 100 more than anyone else in the division.
Only six players in the Premier League have attempted more switches than Van Dijk this season – passes attempted that travel at least 60 per cent the width of the pitch (approximately 40 metres) – with the former Celtic and Southampton centre-back completing 12 of 17 efforts.
With Salah often the man on the end of those switches, Isak could be tasked with closing those opportunities down at source.
The midfield battle
Both teams could lay claim to having the strongest midfield in the Premier League. Liverpool’s main trio this season has been Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai, while Newcastle’s has been Joelinton, Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali.
Liverpool also have Curtis Jones, Wataru Endo and Harvey Elliott in reserve, while Newcastle can call upon Joe Willock, Sean Longstaff and Lewis Miley.
However, the expectation is that the first set of trios are likeliest to start at Wembley, and it would be the first time those six players will have come up against one another at the same time.
Neither league match this season between the two saw both use their first-choice midfields.
Newcastle had theirs in the meeting at St. James’ Park, where Guimaraes recorded two assists, while Joelinton won possession 10 times and won eight of 12 duels.
Jones started instead of Szoboszlai for Liverpool, though the latter did replace Gravenberch later on.
Mac Allister made a match-high seven tackles and won 10 of 16 duels, Gravenberch made a match-high four interceptions, and Jones found the net and completed 55 of 57 passes (96.5 per cent).
Szoboszlai came on but the Hungarian made a bigger impact in the reverse fixture, starting and scoring the opening goal.
The fixture at Anfield saw Slot start Gravenberch, Mac Allister and Szoboszlai, but Howe was unable to call on the injured Joelinton, with Willock stepping in.
As well as finding the net, Szoboszlai completed 34 of his 38 passes (89.5 per cent), including 10 of 11 in the final third, and won possession a team-high eight times. Tonali was the only player to win possession more often (nine).
In terms of goal involvements in all competitions, Szoboszlai (seven) and Mac Allister (five) have chipped in this season, though Gravenberch is yet to find the net in 2024/25.
Newcastle have played fewer games than Liverpool due to a lack of European football this season, but Guimaraes’ winner at West Ham on Monday was his third of the season, matching the total of Tonali, while Joelinton has four goals to his name.
In terms of attacking-sequence involvements in the Premier League, only Salah (205) and Alexander-Arnold (153) have more than Szoboszlai (143) and Mac Allister (135) this season, while only Mac Allister (86) has more involvements in the build-up to a shot than Gravenberch (77).
For Newcastle, Gordon (125) is the one player with more attacking-sequence involvements than Guimaraes (122). Joelinton has the joint-fourth most, and only Isak (60) and Gordon (51) have attempted more shots than his 35.
So often in big finals, the fine margins decide things, and who wins the midfield battle could be the most crucial aspect of all.
Contrasting Wembley records
This will be the first time Liverpool and Newcastle have faced off in a cup final since 1974, when the Reds won 3-0 in the FA Cup final.
Unsurprisingly, given Newcastle’s famously lengthy cup drought and Liverpool’s comparatively bulging trophy cabinet, the two clubs have contrasting history in domestic cup finals.
Newcastle’s last major domestic trophy win was the FA Cup in 1955 when they defeated Manchester City 3-1. Since then, Newcastle have lost five major domestic cup finals (2x EFL Cup, 3x FA Cup), with only Chelsea ever having a longer run (3x EFL Cup, 3x FA Cup since 2019).
On the other hand, Liverpool have won 18 domestic cups (10 EFL Cups, 8 FA Cups) and could equal Manchester United’s record total of 19 (6 EFL Cups, 13 FA Cups) if they win on Sunday.
Looking specifically at League Cup history, this will be Newcastle’s third appearance in the competition’s final, having lost on the other two occasions versus Man City (1976) and Man Utd (2023).
Liverpool will be participating in their 15th EFL Cup final, five more than any other team. They have won 10 and lost only four of their previous appearances in the showpiece fixture, lifting the trophy two more times than anyone else.
These two clubs have only ever met twice before in the EFL Cup, with Newcastle winning 1-0 at Anfield in the 1995/96 fourth round, while Liverpool won 2-0 at St. James’ Park in the 1997/98 quarter-final.
In terms of head-to-head, Newcastle do not have the best recent record against Liverpool.
They are winless in their last 17 meetings with the Reds in all competitions (D5 L12 – all in the Premier League), last beating them in December 2015 when Steve McClaren’s side won 2-0 at St. James’ Park.
The only team Newcastle have ever suffered a longer winless run against is Manchester United (19 games from 2002 to 2011).
In total, there have been 187 previous meetings between the two clubs in all competitions, with Liverpool winning 93, Newcastle winning 49, and 45 draws.
Head-to-head record
| Liverpool | Newcastle | |
|---|---|---|
| 93 | Wins | 49 |
| 45 | Draws | 45 |
| 333 | Goals | 223 |
Since Howe took charge in November 2021, his Newcastle side have lost seven and drawn one of their eight matches against Liverpool.
However, that solitary draw did come earlier this season; Slot’s first match against Newcastle was an exciting 3-3 draw at St. James’ Park. Liverpool won the reverse fixture 2-0 at Anfield last month.
Wembley will not hold fond memories for Newcastle fans, at least not in the last 70 years.
They did win each of their first five appearances at Wembley, all in FA Cup finals between 1924 and 1955, but they have since lost nine successive encounters there, the longest losing run at the famous stadium by any club side.
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