Doubts over Erling Haaland's fitness have come at the worst possible time for Manchester City as they prepare for Wednesday’s top-of-the-table duel with Arsenal.
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But having won back-to-back Premier League titles before his arrival, the champions would back themselves to triumph without their star striker at Emirates Stadium.
And there is evidence from this season to suggest the Norwegian might not be as badly missed as is initially assumed.
Substituted at half-time in Sunday’s 3-1 win over Aston Villa after getting a painful kick, Haaland was pictured in training on Monday, but Pep Guardiola kept his cards close to his chest during Tuesday's press conference, saying: "We train this afternoon. Right now I don’t know (if he's available). Yesterday was about recovery from Aston Villa. That’s all.”
The statistics show that City score more when Haaland is on the pitch, which is unsurprising given he has struck 25 goals in just 21 Premier League matches.
His team average 2.4 goals per match when he is playing, versus 2.0 when he is not. Furthermore, they have more possession and shots.
However, City's numbers when Haaland is missing from the side altogether suggest they could handle his absence against Arsenal.
City with and without Haaland 22/23
| With Haaland | Without Haaland | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 29 | 5 |
| Win percentage | 65.5% | 80.0% |
| Ave. goals for | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| Shots/match | 16.3 | 15.4 |
| Open-play crosses/match | 14.8 | 12.4 |
| Possession | 65.4% | 59.6% |
| Avg. goals against | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Shots conceded/match | 7.6 | 8.2 |
Out of the five matches in all competitions where Haaland has been absent, City have won four and drawn the other, giving them a better win percentage without him than they have with him.
While they score fewer goals, they also concede fewer, with an average of 0.2 conceded per match, in comparison to 1.0 with him in the line-up.
Yet tactically, this is one match where Haaland could be particularly powerful, with his aerial prowess.
City cross the ball more when he plays, and Arsenal have struggled to deal with high balls this season. Indeed, the Gunners rank lowest of all teams in that department.
It is an area where champions tend to be among the best performers, and City would surely be aiming to test their credentials by targeting that weakness on Wednesday.
Aerial success for past champions
| Season | Champions/leaders | Aerial duel success | PL rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/18 | MCI | 55.1% | 3 |
| 18/19 | MCI | 50.7% | 5 |
| 19/20 | LIV | 52.9% | 2 |
| 20/21 | MCI | 53.4% | 3 |
| 21/22 | MCI | 54.6% | 3 |
| 22/23 | ARS | 43.0% | 20 |
Former Premier League striker Michael Owen certainly feels Haaland would be missed on Wednesday.
“If you asked Arsenal and you could pick one Manchester City player that’s not going to play, you’d probably say it’s going to be Haaland,” says Owen.
“That man is different. He’s absolutely world-class, he’s totally elite in his position and the amount of goals he’s scored already, he’d be a huge miss.”
Guardiola is due to speak to the media tomorrow and will hope to deliver good news on his star striker, who was pictured in training on Monday.
But if he isn’t available, City still have the capabilities to beat the leaders and return to the summit.
Also in this series
Part 2: Guardiola: Arsenal are the best team in the league
Part 3: Arteta: Arsenal's challenge is to reach Man City's level
Part 4: Arsenal v Man City: What to look out for as top two collide
Part 5: Odegaard's duel with De Bruyne can be decisive
Part 6: Watch five of the best Arsenal v Man City goals
Part 7: Watch top five Arsenal v Man City moments
Part 8: Match preview: Arsenal v Man City
Part 9: Every time Arteta didn't celebrate against Arsenal at Man City