Following a thrilling weekend, delivering drama from top to bottom in the Premier League, Alex Keble looks at the key talking points and tactical lessons.
Zinchenko absence ends title challenge
As Pervis Estupinan scored Brighton & Hove Albion’s third goal in stoppage time, Emirates Stadium, already emptying rapidly, fell into a deathly silence.
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In that heavy, loaded pause, we were left wondering how exactly things had changed so quickly; how it was that only six weeks ago, an electric atmosphere inside this ground made a first Premier League title for Arsenal in 19 years feel almost inevitable.
Defeat by Brighton on Sunday means Manchester City need only three points from their final three matches to secure their fifth title in six years.
The last time they failed to collect as many points over a three-match period was April 2017, in Pep Guardiola’s first season in charge.
Arsenal captain Martin Odegaard put it best when he said, “It feels like there is no hope now.”
Ultimately Arsenal’s form over the second half of the campaign has fallen short of the level required to win the title. They won 50 points from the first 19 matches (2.63 points a match) and 31 from the 17 since (1.82 per match), the latter being exactly the same points ratio as across the whole of their 2021/22 season.
Arguably, the main reason for the decline is a lack of squad depth, which simply highlights the extent to which Arsenal have overachieved to even be in the title race so late into the season.
Arsenal hold a 100 per cent win record in the Premier League when fielding Mikel Arteta’s preferred first XI, but have generally had problems when Gabriel Jesus, William Saliba, or Oleksandr Zinchenko have been absent.
The entire structure of Arsenal’s build-up play shifts when Zinchenko is out because Kieran Tierney is not the player to move into central midfield in the same way.
Take a look at Tierney’s touches against Brighton, compared with Zinchenko’s in his most recent full 90 minutes against Chelsea.
This fundamental shift in passing options takes away Arsenal’s instinctive, muscle-memory decisions when playing out from the back, which was particularly problematic given Brighton’s exceptional pressing.
It left Arsenal with their lowest possession share of the season at 32 per cent and their lowest pass accuracy of 72 per cent.
Saliba’s injury has been no less significant. Arsenal have conceded 25 goals at home this season, the sixth most in the Premier League (more than Nottingham Forest and Leicester City), but things are far better when Arteta has his first-choice centre-back partnership.
Arsenal conceded 25 goals in the 27 league matches in which Saliba has played (0.93 per match), but let in 17 goals in the nine matches he has missed - a rate of 1.89 or more than double.
For Arsenal to ensure this season is the beginning of something and not the peak, they need to add strength in depth over the summer.
Man City show off what Arsenal lack
By contrast Man City’s squad depth is unparalleled and there was no better example of the fundamental difference between the two title challengers than Sunday's matches.
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At Goodison, Man City beat Everton 3-0 despite half of their outfield players having started at most 19 of their 35 league matches.
Julian Alvarez (11 matches), Phil Foden (19), Riyad Mahrez (19), Kyle Walker (19) and Aymeric Laporte (nine) would be star players in most teams, and it is a reflection of City’s deep bench and superior resources, that the average number of Premier League starts made by the outfield players who faced Everton was 21.3.
Guardiola decided to rotate heavily because of the Real Madrid matches either side of Sunday’s fixture, yet the quality barely went down.
Mahrez registered his 10th assist of the Premier League season, his most in a single City campaign despite his inconsistent selection, while Foden has 15 goal contributions and Alvarez has scored eight times.
That ability to rotate is what has allowed Man City to compete on three fronts and accelerate towards the end of the season as an exhausted Arsenal decline, hence their 11 consecutive Premier League wins.
Few matches have been as awkward as this one was, however, and before Ilkay Gundogan’s magnificent opener, there were hints that Everton might be able to nick something. In the first 30 minutes, Man City had one shot on goal. Erling Haaland touched the ball twice.
Sean Dyche’s cautious, compressed 4-5-1 formation was keeping City at bay and, without Kevin De Bruyne floating between the lines, the visitors were forced to shuffle the ball into less dangerous wide positions. But it only took one remarkable Gundogan flick to completely rewrite the narrative.
In the end, Man City breezed through the match, showing the certainty and ruthlessness that Arsenal have been lacking in 2023. They will be deserving champions.
Fernandes is back to his best
It has not been the most eye-catching of seasons for Bruno Fernandes, who despite Manchester United’s renewed clarity under Erik ten Hag, has made headlines considerably less often than Marcus Rashford or Casemiro.
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That is partly because Fernandes was well below his best in the first half of the campaign, scoring twice and assisting none in his 13 Premier League matches prior to the FIFA World Cup.
But with 12 goal contributions in 21 matches since then, Fernandes has returned to his very best form.
His performance in the 2-0 win over Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday was arguably his most complete of the season.
Fernandes produced 14 shot-creating actions, his highest of the season to date, taking his tally for the campaign to 199, a full 25 more than second-placed De Bruyne.
Yet even this doesn’t quite capture his contribution. His assist for Alejandro Garnacho’s goal was excellent, but better still was his role in the opener.
Fernandes, ghosting into a pocket of space, played a neat one-two around the corner before threading a through-ball into the path of Antony, who squared for Anthony Martial to score a tap-in.
It was his sixth pre-assist of the season and symptomatic of his mastery of the "pass before the pass".
Fernandes tops the Premier League charts for secondary chances created, with 47.
It was a superb, game-changing moment from Fernandes and one that highlighted why his best position remains as United’s No 10.
He took 62 touches of the ball against Wolves, almost half as many as when he was moved into a deeper midfield position (119 touches v Everton, 111 v Brentford), but counterintuitively this smaller role gives him greater influence.
Fernandes is at his best when sneaking around, popping up on the blind side of an opposition midfield.
Villa v Spurs sums up both clubs’ seasons
A potential UEFA Europa League Conference playoff was deservedly won by Aston Villa, who moved level on points with Tottenham Hotspur as they close in on European football for the first time since 2011.
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Villa’s difficult run-in – Liverpool away, then Brighton at home – means Spurs are still in the driving seat, yet Ryan Mason’s side have won just one of their last six.
Their decline is as spectacular as Villa’s rise and the match at Villa Park seemed to capture everything about where these two clubs are at.
The hosts were fluent and assured, every player knowing exactly what was required of them. The visitors were more the opposite.
The difference between the two sides’ tactical formation graphs – one neatly spaced horizontally and vertically, the other clumped together – tells the story.
For Villa, it was a sixth successive home win, their longest run since February 1993, when Graham Taylor’s side finished runners-up to Man Utd.
Unai Emery is now averaging 1.96 points per match (ppm) as Villa head coach, the third-best rate of anyone who has taken charge of 10 or more fixtures this season, behind Guardiola (2.41ppm) and Arteta (2.31ppm).
Spurs, meanwhile, are now winless in seven away matches and across their last five in the Premier League, have conceded seven goals in the opening 10 minutes.
But if there is one moment that really encapsulated Spurs’ season, it was the sight of Harry Kane scoring a goal despite the poor performances of those around him.
Kane has scored in 24 Premier League matches this season, the joint-most of any player in a 38-match season, along with Mohamed Salah in 2017/18.
Haaland’s goalscoring feats have taken attention from Kane’s superb 27-goal haul, an achievement made all the more spectacular in the context of Spurs' difficult year and often underwhelming defensive football.
His 0.8 goals per 90 is his joint-best ever in a single season, plus Kane has already played a career-high 55 key passes.
He is seemingly impervious to the performances of his team-mates, a lone star, bested on Saturday by a Villa team all about the collective.
Southampton’s relegation confirmed
The headline news from St Mary's Stadium was Southampton’s relegation to the Championship, ending an 11-year stay in the top flight. It was a fall that had felt inevitable for some time.
Ultimately the decision to replace Ralph Hasenhuttl with Nathan Jones and the woes of his eight matches in charge cost Southampton their Premier League status.
Saints won 12 points from 14 matches under Hasenhuttl this season, a rate of 0.86 per match which, had he stayed and that record held, would put them on 31 today – level with Leeds United and just a point behind Everton in 17th.
But it would be too simplistic to suggest Southampton should have kept Hasenhuttl, and nobody could have predicted the club would decline so sharply with each manager change.
Across all competitions, Ruben Selles's win percentage of 13.3 per cent was lower than Jones' 35.7 per cent, although the interim manager has won nine points from 14 in the Premier League, compared with Jones’s three from eight.
How Saints' managers fared in 2022/23 PL
| Hasenhuttl | Jones | Selles | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matches | 14 | 8 | 14 |
| Points | 12 (3W, 3D, 8L) | 3 (1W, 0D, 7L) | 9 (2W, 3D, 9L) |
Managerial uncertainty is the story of their relegation, but ultimately Southampton just weren’t good enough no matter who was in the dugout.
They have lost 24 league matches in 2022/23, more than in any previous season in their 132-year history, losing seven or more times under three different managers.
