The Premier League is on course for a record season for goals scored as it heads into its final round of matches.
Since the division was reduced to 20 clubs in 1995/96, never have as many as 1,051 goals been scored going into the final day.
The Premier League record for a season of 380 matches is 1,072, set in 2018/19.
If this season’s present rate of 2.841 goals per match is maintained on Sunday, this would lead to a total of 1,079, breaking the record by seven.
Goals galore on final day
In fact, analysis has shown it is likely more than 28 goals will be scored on Sunday.
In all but one of the last 20 seasons, Matchweek 38 has featured more goals than the average for the campaign until that point.
Goal averages MW1-37 v MW38
| Season | MW1-37 | MW38 | Season | MW1-37 | MW38 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00/01 | 2.59 | 3.2 | 11/12 | 2.79 | 3.2 |
| 01/02 | 2.62 | 3.2 | 12/13 | 2.78 | 3.6 |
| 02/03 | 2.62 | 3.1 | 13/14 | 2.77 | 2.8 |
| 03/04 | 2.66 | 2.9 | 14/15 | 2.56 | 2.9 |
| 04/05 | 2.55 | 3.0 | 15/16 | 2.68 | 3.5 |
| 05/06 | 2.47 | 2.9 | 16/17 | 2.78 | 3.7 |
| 06/07 | 2.44 | 2.9 | 17/18 | 2.67 | 3.1 |
| 07/08 | 2.62 | 3.4 | 18/19 | 2.80 | 3.6 |
| 08/09 | 2.48 | 2.3 | 19/20 | 2.71 | 3.3 |
| 09/10 | 2.76 | 3.2 | 20/21 | 2.68 | 3.1 |
| 10/11 | 2.79 | 3.2 | 21/22 | 2.79 | 3.9 |
Last season, we came close to the overall record being set on the final day.
An amazing 39 goals were scored on MW38 in 21/22, the most on a final day since 1995/96. But the total of 1,071 fell one shy of the 18/19 record.
Stalemates on the rise
Strangely, despite the high rate of goals this season, the number of goalless draws has increased from 22 to 23 in 2022/23. But elsewhere, the goals have been flying in.
As well as Liverpool beating AFC Bournemouth 9-0, only the third time this margin of victory has happened in Premier League history, there have been a number of high-scoring matches. Liverpool also handed Man Utd a record 7-0 defeat.
Indeed 32 matches this season have had at least six goals scored.
So, count the goals as they are scored on Sunday.