Which FPL stars could rise in price but remain key picks?

Mohamed Salah’s record-breaking 2017/18 season for Liverpool set the tone for his illustrious career in Fantasy Premier League.

The winger started that campaign at a cost of just £9.0m and went on to record the best-ever FPL single-season score, amassing 303 points thanks to 32 goals and 12 assists. 

See: How 2023/24 FPL prices will be revealed

Those exploits earned the Egyptian a huge price rise to £13.0m in 2018/19 and he has never started any of the subsequent seasons below £12.0m.

Yet Salah has still proven worth the premium outlay, delivering 230+ points in all six of his Fantasy campaigns for the Reds.

His team-mate Trent Alexander-Arnold has also justified a jump in cost across consecutive seasons in Fantasy. 

The right-back’s total of 185 points in 2018/19 resulted in a price hike from £5.0m to £7.0m.

Alexander-Arnold showed he merited that increase by claiming 210 points, the second best-ever score by a defender. 

Midfield pair justify rises

Bukayo Saka and Son Heung-min offer more recent examples of players who have excelled after price rises in Fantasy.

Arsenal’s Saka was a popular pick in 2021/22 thanks to a kind opening cost of £6.5m.

The winger delivered his personal best score of 179 points that season, producing 11 goals and nine assists.

That output helped Saka end the season with an ownership of 2.6million. 

But a rise in price to £8.0m at the start of last season, combined with cheaper alternatives in the Gunners' midfield, resulted in a big drop in popularity.

Saka could be found in only 1.7million squads in Gameweek 1 of 2022/23 Fantasy.

Yet he went on to break his personal best score once again, earning 202 points thanks to 14 goals and 12 assists.

Tottenham Hotspur’s Son also claimed back-to-back personal best scores over successive Fantasy campaigns.

In 2020/21, the South Korean produced 228 points to surpass his previous best by 50 points.

Having started that season at £9.0m, Son could be found in 3.6million squads by Gameweek 38.

But that ownership plummeted when Son was priced at £10.0m in 2021/22, with just over 1.4million selecting him for Gameweek 1.

He then embarked on a 258-point campaign, scoring 23 goals to share the Golden Boot with Liverpool’s Salah. 

Players to watch for 2023/24 price rises

Erling Haaland

There is no doubt the Manchester City forward will rise in price after his outstanding debut Fantasy campaign.

Haaland’s 36 goals and nine assists helped him to the top of the overall player standings on 272 points.

His opening cost of £11.5m proved a bargain, with his ownership in excess of 80 per cent for many Gameweeks.

A climb to £13.0m or £14.0m is unlikely to deter many managers from snapping up Haaland for Man City’s kind opening schedule.

Man City’s first six matches

The champions faces four of the six clubs who have been promoted over the last two seasons in the first six Gameweeks. 

Martin Odegaard and Gabriel Martinelli

The Arsenal pair seem likely to mirror the starting price of Saka this season after all three finished among the top-seven scoring players in 2022/23 Fantasy.

Odegaard started at £6.5m and proved the best of the trio by claiming 212 points, scoring 15 goals and assisting a further eight. 

Martinelli, meanwhile, came in at £6.0m last season and went on to deliver 15 goals and nine assists. He averaged 5.6 points per start (pps) to the 5.4 of Saka.

See: Clubs to target in FPL: Arsenal

The underlying statistics suggest that Odegaard and Martinelli will continue to offer strong competition to Saka as the best Arsenal midfield pick.

Odegaard’s 76 key passes and 15 big chances created were both team-leading totals, while Martinelli’s 16 big chances were at least six more than any other Gunners midfielder.

A cost of around £8.5m would be no surprise for either of the trio when the player prices are revealed.

Marcus Rashford

Starting at a cost of only £6.5m, the England international established himself as a key figure in Erik ten Hag’s first season in charge of Manchester United.

Rashford recorded a career-high 205 points in 2022/23 to finish fifth in the overall standings, scoring 17 goals and assisting a further seven.

While a rise in price to £8.5m or £9.0m is anticipated, Rashford’s output at Old Trafford, in particular, can play a big part in managers’ captaincy decisions.

In home matches last season, his total of 143 points was bettered only by the 161 of Haaland, with Rashford averaging 8.4pps in those encounters.

Kieran Trippier

His multiple routes to returns helped the right-back top the defender standings in his first full season for Newcastle United.

Trippier started all 38 of the Magpies’ matches, combining a goal and nine assists with 16 clean sheets and 39 bonus points. 

That earned him 198 points, at least 42 points more than any other player in his position in Fantasy.

Having cost just £5.0m at the start of last season, Trippier is likely to move into the premium bracket and could be priced around £6.0m or £6.5m.  

Nonetheless, the underlying numbers still look encouraging for the campaign ahead. 

His 110 key passes and 24 big chances created placed second and fourth respectively among all players last season. 

Ollie Watkins

The arrival of Unai Emery as head coach of Aston Villa transformed the forward’s prospects in Fantasy.

Watkins was the joint-sixth top-scoring player in the game after the Spaniard’s appointment in Gameweek 15. 

He amassed 134 points in that run, producing 13 goals and six assists. 

While a climb from last season’s £7.5m price tag to a maximum of £8.5m seems likely to reflect that form, Watkins can still appeal if he continues his momentum into 2023/24.

He averaged 5.6pps under Emery, compared with just 3.2pps beforehand.

Also in this series

Part 1: Which FPL stars could drop in price and become key picks?
Part 3: FPL experts: Most-anticipated price reveals for 2023/24