The Premier League returns this weekend for a four-week stretch that tends to be one of the season’s most important, setting narrative arcs as beginnings – both good and bad - settle into lasting patterns.
To add to the mix, UEFA competitions will begin for eight Premier League clubs, along with the EFL Cup third round.
This makes for a seriously congested schedule for those towards the top end of the table, with some teams facing seven matches between now and the October international break.
Last season, four managers were dismissed in September and October, while in only one of the past eight seasons has the Premier League not had a change of manager by the end of October. This suggests the upcoming Premier League matches could be the last chance for some bosses to turn things around.
It also happens to be a month of blockbuster matches. Arsenal host Tottenham Hotspur on 24 September, Liverpool travel to Spurs six days later, and then the Gunners host Manchester City on the final weekend before the international break in October.
Alex Keble looks at the big storylines we can expect over the next four rounds of matches:
Which of top five can sustain form?
There are five unbeaten teams, each with at least 10 points. Some will fall away this month and are likely to see the optimism drain as they are absorbed back towards mid table.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
That is guaranteed by the fact that so many seem to be playing each other. Coincidentally, every club in this five-team mini-league face another top-five rival in two of their next four matches.
Arsenal have home matches against Spurs and Man City, which feel like must-win matches if Mikel Arteta expects to go one better than last season’s runners-up spot.
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They also face PSV Eindhoven and Lens in the UEFA Champions League, so Arteta will need to rotate his squad accordingly.
A slight underperformance across their first four matches, despite good results, suggests Arteta needs to have settled on his best XI during this international break, or Arsenal could be in for a rough month.
Spurs host Liverpool just after the north London derby, but with winnable matches against Sheffield United and Luton Town either side, there perhaps isn’t so much pressure on their bigger fixtures.
West Ham United, who must also contend with two UEFA Europa League matches, begin the period at home to Man City before playing Liverpool at Anfield, which is followed by consecutive home encounters with Sheffield United and Newcastle United.
David Moyes has three very tough matches of the sort that will define the narrative. West Ham could dip back to their expected pre-season levels, or signal their arrival as surprise top-four contenders.
Man City should feel confident about maintaining their 100 per cent record in their next three, but of course neutrals eagerly await a huge moment when they visit Emirates Stadium on 8 October.
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Pep Guardiola’s side also face RB Leipzig away from home just four days before their trip to north London.
Liverpool arguably have it hardest of all, and the most to play for.
They host West Ham and go to Spurs in a four-match spell disrupted by Europa League football – a novelty for them - before ending with a trip to Brighton.
Are the new-look Liverpool back to their best and ready to challenge once more for the title? It probably isn’t over-dramatic to say we will know by this time next month.
Can Chelsea, Newcastle, and Man Utd settle down?
The top five being distracted by each other means the three biggest underachievers of the season have a chance to stabilise.
Indeed Chelsea, Newcastle, and Manchester United all have what appear to be simpler fixtures that provide a chance to build cohesion and confidence.
Mauricio Pochettino will be looking forward to recovering from the home defeat by Nottingham Forest with winnable matches against AFC Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Fulham and Burnley. He is helped by not having the distraction of European football.
Chelsea need to string some wins together here, because if they cannot, questions will be asked of Pochettino’s rebuild, especially with a tougher run of matches after the October break.
See: What to look out for as Premier League returns
Newcastle and Eddie Howe would have felt the same way about their run, against Brentford, Sheff Utd, Burnley, and West Ham, but this is complicated by the UEFA Champions League matches against AC Milan and Paris Saint-Germain.
Placed in such a difficult group, Howe’s side have a draining month both physically and emotionally. There is no guarantee things will calm down domestically.
Man Utd also have a winnable run of matches against Burnley, Crystal Palace, and Brentford, once they get past a visit from Brighton this weekend.
They shouldn’t be hit by the UEFA Champions League quite as hard as Newcastle, but with Erik ten Hag under a bit of pressure after some poor early performances, it would only take a couple of defeats this month for the Man Utd manager to feel the heat.
The Red Devils will face Bayern Munich and Galatasaray within the next four weeks.
Who of bottom five will claim six-pointers?
Not unlike the top five, the bottom five – all winless - are about to enter a period of in-fighting.
In the week between 30 September and 7 October, there are three huge six-pointers among the clubs without a Premier League win. Everton host Luton on 30 September, before Burnley visit the Hatters in midweek, with Everton travelling to Bournemouth the following weekend.
Every one of those fixtures feels hugely important, but especially for Everton and Bournemouth, who were not expecting to endure such a slow start to the season.
Bournemouth’s performances under Andoni Iraola haven’t been bad, but unfortunately their tough start continues unabated, with Chelsea, Brighton, and Arsenal to face prior to the six-pointer against Everton.
Sean Dyche’s team seem to be edging closer to a crisis, which is why after facing Arsenal and Brentford, the home matches with Luton and Bournemouth seem likely to define the trajectory of Dyche and the team this season.
The fifth winless club, Sheff Utd, have no such opportunity to take points off fellow strugglers. They take on Spurs, Newcastle, West Ham, and Fulham, as Paul Heckingbottom faces arguably the most daunting month of any Premier League club.
By the time of the next break in mid-October, after five huge contests at the top and three six-pointers at the bottom, the story of the 2023/24 Premier League season will have begun to take shape.
The next 40 matches
Saturday 16 September
12:30 Wolves v Liverpool
15:00 Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
15:00 Fulham v Luton Town
15:00 Man Utd v Brighton
15:00 Spurs v Sheff Utd
15:00 West Ham v Man City
17:30 Newcastle v Brentford
Sunday 17 September
14:00 AFC Bournemouth v Chelsea
16:30 Everton v Arsenal
Monday 18 September
19:45 Nott'm Forest v Burnley
Saturday 23 September
15:00 Crystal Palace v Fulham
15:00 Luton Town v Wolves
15:00 Man City v Nott'm Forest
17:30 Brentford v Everton
20:00 Burnley v Man Utd
Sunday 24 September
14:00 Arsenal v Spurs
14:00 Brighton v AFC Bournemouth
14:00 Chelsea v Aston Villa
14:00 Liverpool v West Ham
16:30 Sheff Utd v Newcastle
Saturday 30 September
12:30 Aston Villa v Brighton
15:00AFC Bournemouth v Arsenal
15:00 Everton v Luton Town
15:00 Man Utd v Crystal Palace
15:00 Newcastle v Burnley
15:00 West Ham v Sheff Utd
15:00 Wolves v Man City
17:30 Spurs v Liverpool
Sunday 1 October
14:00 Nott'm Forest v Brentford
Monday 2 October
20:00 Fulham v Chelsea
Tuesday 3 October
19:30 Luton v Burnley
Saturday 7 October
12:30 Luton v Spurs
15:00Burnley v Chelsea
15:00Everton v AFC Bournemouth
15:00Fulham v Sheff Utd
15:00 Man Utd v Brentford
17:30 Crystal Palace v Nott'm Forest
Sunday 8 October
14:00 Brighton v Liverpool
14:00 West Ham v Newcastle
14:00 Wolves v Aston Villa
16:30 Arsenal v Man City