Talking Tactics

Can Kovacic and Phillips step up in Rodri's absence?

By Adrian Clarke 5 Oct 2023

Adrian Clarke pinpoints areas Man City midfielders must excel in against title rivals Arsenal

Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 8.

Manchester City

Coping with the absence of suspended midfielder Rodri is the biggest challenge facing Man City ahead of their match at Arsenal.

ARS

1-0

MCI

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Rodri is a truly elite-level performer, who is rightly considered the best defensive midfielder in the world.

Without his precision passing, calm control, and expert ball-winning attributes, Pep Guardiola’s side are considerably weakened.

The Spain star is the glue that knits everything together, and with him in the starting XI, City have lost just 13.2 per cent of their Premier League matches.

That figure rises to a third when he is unavailable and subsequently their points-per-match tally dips below two per match.

None of this guarantees Mikel Arteta’s side a win on Sunday, but Arsenal's prospects of ending a long losing streak against Man City do seem to have improved.

Man City with/without Rodri comparison

Man City	With Rodri	Without Rodri
Matches	144	15
Ave. goals for	2.5	2.3
Ave. goals against	0.8	1.1
Win %	74.3%	60%
Losing %	13.2%	33.3%
Points per match	2.4	1.9

Vulnerability exposed

Mateo Kovacic and Kalvin Phillips are talented footballers, but neither can match the effortless poise and control of Rodri.

This was evident at Molineux last weekend when Wolverhampton Wanderers claimed a famous 2-1 success.

Far more vulnerable to turnovers and transitions than usual, Man City’s midfield was nowhere near as robust when possession changed hands.

Arsenal will certainly look to target this area of possible weakness.

See: Will Arteta finally outwit Guardiola?

In possession Guardiola’s side also suffered last time out, with the connection between players a little more stilted than it has been this season.

A good example of how Rodri’s authority compares to Kovacic can be seen by comparing these passing line chalkboards from their last two away matches at West Ham United and Wolves.

As shown below, No 16 Rodri as the heartbeat of the team, with the thickness of the lines representing the number of passes shared between players.

Rodri was at the core of everything Man City did at London Stadium, connecting to everybody around him.

Passing lines v West Ham

Kovacic was not as impactful in that sitting role at Molineux.

Without Rodri you can see the back four shared a lot more passes, with the Croat, shown as No 8, not so much of a central hub.

See: All the times Arteta has faced Guardiola

During that loss, Kovacic and his 69th-minute replacement Phillips, made a combined 37 passes into the final third, achieving accuracy levels of 77.8 per cent and 90 per cent respectively.

Of the 49 passes that Rodri fed into the final third against West Ham, he boasted a pass accuracy of 95.9 per cent.

That diminished output could potentially give Arsenal a slightly easier ride.

Passing lines v Wolves

Guardiola's replacement for Rodri on Sunday will face an uphill task to be as effective.

His intelligence, nous and control, on and off the ball, is unparalleled.

Far and away the best central midfield pass master, Man City will sorely miss Rodri's range of accurate short, long, and relentless distribution.

PL midfielders 2023/24

Succ. passes opp. half		Succ. long passes		Total passes distance
Rodri	373	Rodri	39	Rodri	10,224m
Bissouma	295	Fernandes	32	Fernandez	9,053m
Fernandez	274	Fernandez	32	Fernandes	8,041m

Rodri’s pace, mobility and reading of the game makes them tougher to break down.

Arsenal have injury concerns of their own, but they will still view this as their best opportunity for some time to get the upper hand on their title rivals.

Facing Man City without Rodri is a real bonus. Arteta's side must take full advantage.