Alex Keble looks at the key talking points ahead of two Sunday fixtures, including the Manchester derby.
Ten Hag's plan to stifle Guardiola
Andre Onana’s last-second penalty save in midweek has papered over the cracks of another uncomfortable Manchester United performance, and yet there is something in the air ahead of the first Manchester derby of the season.
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Erik ten Hag has a plan for how to beat Pep Guardiola. It has worked before and it can work again.
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Manchester City were beaten 2-1 in this fixture last season. They have also lost their last two Premier League away matches, at Wolverhampton Wanderers and at Arsenal, on both occasions facing lowish defensive blocks that successfully slowed an attack missing Kevin De Bruyne.
Man Utd held only 29 per cent possession in their head-to-head back in January, dropping into a restrictive and ultra-defensive 4-5-1 formation that drowned out Erling Haaland. Particularly interesting was Ten Hag’s strategy of man-to-man marking in central midfield with Fred sticking to De Bruyne, Casemiro tracking Bernardo Silva, and Christian Eriksen following Rodri.
Man Utd average positions v City in January
It worked very well, allowing United to win the ball and enact spring-loaded counter-attacks funnelled through Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford over and over again.
However, Guardiola’s decision to field just one defensive midfielder, Rodri, left them open in the transition, and Man City were much improved after half-time when Guardiola moved one full-back into the middle to sit alongside Rodri.
Man City will surely start that way this time, making themselves less vulnerable to the Fernandes-Rashford break, and yet De Bruyne’s absence should make United’s humble defensive set-up even more effective.
Wolves didn’t need to reinvent the wheel to win 2-1 last month. They shut Man City down and broke quickly through Pedro Neto, a simple approach that Man Utd showed last winter that they can mimic.
On the other hand, Guardiola has won four times at Old Trafford, more than anyone else, and on Sunday is looking to become the first Man City manager to win away against three different Man Utd managers in the top flight.
Man City are favourites for a reason, but United have every reason to believe they can cause an upset and open up the title race.
Moyes and Dyche need an end to patchy form
David Moyes and Sean Dyche are on the precipice of something, but who knows what?
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West Ham and Everton are arguably the two least-understood Premier League clubs of the season to date, their patchy form making them frankly unreadable. West Ham could yet fall sharply; Everton may rise out of the bottom half. Saturday’s head-to-head should give us some answers.
West Ham are comfortable in ninth, but since the end of August their only Premier League wins have been against Luton and Sheff Utd. Their 38.3 per cent possession average is the second-lowest in the competition, while the Hammers' 18.3 xG Against is the second-worst.
As those stats suggest, West Ham are surprisingly easy to play through and create chances against. In fact, they are bottom of the table both for progressive carries against (29.3 per match) and progressive passes against (57.2 per match).
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Everton will look forward to the space they are given to drive through the lines. Last weekend's 2-0 defeat at Liverpool was a minor setback, but Dyche’s team have started to come together. Their results are finally reflecting that they are fourth in the Premier League for shots taken, with 139.
Dyche's side focus predominantly down the wings, excelling in this month's 3-0 victory over Bournemouth thanks to strong showings from Jack Harrison and Dwight McNeil.
Harrison's goal v Bournemouth
Opening your Everton account in style 🔓😏@Harrison_Jack11 👏 pic.twitter.com/0iIIA84IIl
— Everton (@Everton) October 7, 2023
This could be a serious problem for the hosts. Everton have attempted the second-most crosses in the Premier League, with 183, while West Ham have faced the most crosses, with 223.
But Everton are also inconsistent, and the Hammers - who have scored in each of their last 11 Premier League matches - have lost only three of their last 14 Premier League home contests.
These are two temperamental teams difficult to pin down in 2023/24. A win for Everton and they are in touching distance of the top half. A win for West Ham would put 10 points between themselves and their opponents.
