Arsenal will be TOP of the table at Christmas following Saturday's 1-1 draw at Liverpool.
But does being No 1 at Christmas mean Arsenal are true favourites to win the title?
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
History shows that half of the Christmas leaders go on to win the title, or 51.6 per cent to be precise.
In 16 of the Premier League's 31 campaigns, the team sitting top on 25 December have gone on to lift the trophy, but on 15 occasions they have missed out.
Indeed, in three of the last five seasons the leaders have been overtaken, and Arsenal were the last team to suffer such a fate, just last season.
The Gunners were five points clear of Manchester City at Christmas last year but ultimately finished five points BEHIND them in May.
In fact, Arsenal have failed to win the title on all five occasions when they have topped the top-flight table at Christmas, finishing fourth in 1986/87 and 1989/90, third in 2007/08, and second in 2002/03 and 2022/23.
Fate of Christmas leaders
| Season | Xmas No 1 | Final pos. | Season | Xmas No 1 | Final pos. |
| 92/93 | Norwich | 3 | 08/09 | Liverpool | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93/94 | Man Utd | 1 | 09/10 | Chelsea | 1 |
| 94/95 | Blackburn | 1 | 10/11 | Man Utd | 1 |
| 95/96 | Newcastle | 2 | 11/12 | Man City | 1 |
| 96/97 | Liverpool | 4 | 12/13 | Man Utd | 1 |
| 97/98 | Man Utd | 2 | 13/14 | Liverpool | 2 |
| 98/99 | Aston Villa | 6 | 14/15 | Chelsea | 1 |
| 99/00 | Leeds | 3 | 15/16 | Leicester | 1 |
| 00/01 | Man Utd | 1 | 16/17 | Chelsea | 1 |
| 01/02 | Newcastle | 4 | 17/18 | Man City | 1 |
| 02/03 | Arsenal | 2 | 18/19 | Liverpool | 2 |
| 03/04 | Man Utd | 3 | 19/20 | Liverpool | 1 |
| 04/05 | Chelsea | 1 | 20/21 | Liverpool | 3 |
| 05/06 | Chelsea | 1 | 21/22 | Man City | 1 |
| 06/07 | Man Utd | 1 | 22/23 | Arsenal | 2 |
| 07/08 | Arsenal | 3 | 23/24 | Arsenal | ? |
Don't write anyone off
The last four occasions when the Christmas leaders have been overtaken, it has been Man City who have come from behind to be crowned champions.
They were eight points behind Liverpool in 2020/21, and four points behind Liverpool two seasons prior.
It means the champions are unlikely to be too concerned by the fact they are currently six points off the top with a match in hand.
Champions to come from behind at Xmas
| Season | Team | Pts behind at Xmas | Position at Xmas |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1992/93 | Man Utd | 5 | 4 |
| 1995/96 | Man Utd | 10 | 2 |
| 1996/97 | Man Utd | 7 | 5 |
| 1997/98 | Arsenal | 13 | 6 |
| 1998/99 | Man Utd | 5 | 3 |
| 1999/00 | Man Utd | 2 | 2 |
| 2001/02 | Arsenal | 3 | 2 |
| 2002/03 | Man Utd | 4 | 3 |
| 2003/04 | Arsenal | 1 | 2 |
| 2007/08 | Man Utd | 1 | 2 |
| 2008/09 | Man Utd | 7 | 4 |
| 2013/14 | Man City | 1 | 3 |
| 2018/19 | Man City | 4 | 2 |
| 2020/21 | Man City | 8 | 8 |
| 2022/23 | Man City | 5 | 2 |
Teams have come from even further back. The record for the most points off the top at Christmas to go on and win the Premier League title belongs to Arsenal, who were 13 points behind Manchester United in 1997/98.
In terms of positions, the lowest a team have come back from at Christmas to become champions is eighth, by Man City in 2020/21. This gives hope to even West Ham United, Newcastle United and Man Utd this season.
Indeed, on eight occasions have a team in third place or lower at Christmas gone on to win the title.
On the flip side, the unwanted record of the lowest finishing position for a team who sat top at Christmas belongs to Aston Villa, who fell to sixth in 1998/99.
