A home encounter with Sheffield United brings Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) back into contention as a top captain pick for Gameweek 18 of Fantasy Premier League.
The forward looks set to battle Liverpool star Mohamed Salah (£13.2m) and Tottenham Hotspur’s Son Heung-min (£9.8m) for the armband, as Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (£13.9m) is without a match.
All three of the leading captain contenders have home fixtures, with Salah and Son facing Arsenal and Everton respectively.
Son is the form player of the trio, scoring twice and supplying three assists in the last four Gameweeks. Indeed, his 31 points have been bettered only by the 38 of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.2m) over that run.
Salah and Watkins have both been involved in three goals over the same period, with just one point separating the duo.
Players' form in last four matches
| Player | Pts | Goal involvements | Goals | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Son | 31 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Salah | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Watkins | 23 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
The underlying numbers show Salah has boasted the superior goal threat and creative numbers of the trio over the last four Gameweeks.
Despite scoring just once, his 15 shots, 11 shots in the box and eight shots on target are all more than Son and Watkins in that period.
His 12 chances created also lead the way in the analysis and are more than double the five of Watkins.
Son is top among the trio for big chances, with four, and goal conversion, with 20 per cent. By contrast, Watkins has had just one big chance in the same period.
Attacking stats in last four matches
| Player | Shots in box | Big chances | Goal conversion | Key passes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salah | 11 | 3 | 6.7% | 12 |
| Watkins | 9 | 1 | 18.2% | 5 |
| Son | 8 | 4 | 20.0% | 9 |
Who has the best home form?
Salah’s involvement in big chances at home is easily the most impressive of the trio.
He has had 13 big chances and also created six at Anfield across the season, which essentially means he has been involved in 19 such opportunities at home.
By comparison, Watkins and Son have each been involved in only 10 big chances at home.
Watkins’ goal threat numbers certainly fare well here when compared with those of Son.
The Villa star’s 26 shots in the box at home place top in the analysis, while his nine big chances and 18.5 per cent goal conversion are both superior to the Spurs man's numbers.
Home stats compared in 23/24
| Player | Shots in box | Big chances | Goal conversion | Big chances created |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salah | 23 | 13 | 25.0% | 6 |
| Watkins | 26 | 9 | 18.5% | 1 |
| Son | 15 | 4 | 15.0% | 6 |
Assessing the opponents’ defences
Analysing each player’s Gameweek opponents can help identify any weaknesses to target.
The statistics highlight just how resilient both Everton and Arsenal have been recently. The Toffees visit Spurs on the back of four straight clean sheets and have allowed only four big chances in that run, the same as the Gunners.
Sheff Utd’s defensive numbers certainly favour Watkins, with the Blades ranking bottom compared with Everton and Arsenal for goals conceded, along with shots in the box and big chances allowed over their last four matches.
Opponents’ defending, GW14-17
| Team | Goals conc. | Clean sheets | Shots in box conc. | Big chances conc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 9 | 1 | 39 | 13 |
| Arsenal | 5 | 1 | 19 | 4 |
| Everton | 0 | 4 | 31 | 4 |
Opponents' defences away from home
Away from home across the season, Sheff Utd have conceded 22 goals and 26 big chances. Both of those tallies are more than that of Everton and Arsenal combined.
However, it is worth noting the Blades have had a new manager in Chris Wilder for their last two contests, and they have kept their first clean sheet of the campaign since that change.
Opponents’ away defending 23/24
| Team | Goals conc. | Clean sheets | Shots in box conc. | Big chances conc. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | 22 | 0 | 92 | 26 |
| Everton | 11 | 3 | 76 | 17 |
| Arsenal | 7 | 4 | 47 | 8 |
So, who is the best captain?
The player statistics are very much on Salah’s side, while the data on the opposition defences points towards Watkins.
Salah clearly has the tougher fixture but his potential for both goals and assists, as highlighted by his big-chance involvement at Anfield, can give him the edge.
Liverpool's talisman has blanked just once at home all season, whereas Watkins has three blanks in his last four outings at Villa Park alone.
Ultimately, it comes down to whether Fantasy managers believe Sheff Utd can benefit from “the new-manager bounce” following the arrival of Wilder.
Should that be the case, there’s only so much you can read into the Blades’ team data.
Judged on the player numbers alone, Salah's ridiculous consistency makes him less likely to disappoint.
Also in this series
Part 1: Why Palmer will soon be an FPL must-have as he rivals premiums
Part 2: FPL experts: What to do with Nunez?
Part 3: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 18 Ones to watch
Part 4: The Scout’s FPL Gameweek 18 Differentials
Part 5: Scout Selection: Best FPL team for Gameweek 18
