Alex Keble analyses where this weekend's five fixtures could be won and lost.
Dropped points could be fatal for Arsenal
Arsenal simply cannot afford to drop points. To do so on Saturday, to fall short yet again this winter, would damage their title hopes almost beyond repair.
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Between 2018 and 2022 Crystal Palace were Arsenal’s bogey team. The Gunners won just one of the eight Premier League meetings across those four seasons, drawing five and losing two. And although they have since won three on the bounce, there is a very real danger of the curse returning.
That danger stems from the form guide. Arsenal, having taken just four points from the last 15 available, have sunk at an alarming rate to fourth in the table and five points off the top.
Meanwhile, Palace beat Brentford 3-1 last time out and, chasing back-to-back league wins for the first time since April 2023, have performed admirably in their most recent matches against the current top four.
In early December they restricted Liverpool to 1.2 Expected Goals (xG) - they were unlucky to lose 2-1 - and a week later they drew 2-2 at Manchester City.
Arsenal supporters will see this as an ominous sign, particularly after watching their team lose three consecutive matches in all competitions and fail to score in their last two at Emirates Stadium.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
Palace will repeat the tactical template from those December matches, meaning a low-block 4-4-2 formation that looks to minimise space in their own third with an all-out defensive approach. From here, the aim is to counter-attack quickly when the rare opportunity arises.
Michael Olise’s injury and Jordan Ayew’s absence at the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) severely reduces Palace's counter-attacking threat, but from a defensive standpoint Roy Hodgson will believe in his players to get the job done.
Arsenal have faced growing accusations of predictability, the well-worn grooves of their passing structures perhaps allowing deep defences to shuffle across and hold them at arm’s length.
And arguably the biggest problem is that too much comes through Bukayo Saka. He has received 305 progressive passes this season, which isn’t just the most in the Premier League but is 37 per cent more than the player who ranks second, Mohamed Salah, who has received 222 progressive passes.
Without an overlapping full-back to help him out, Saka gets stuck when opponents double up on him. That is exactly what Palace will do.
Jeffrey Schlupp should feature on the left of midfield in front of Tyrick Mitchell, giving Palace two strong defenders on that side to deal with Saka.
If these two perform to their best, Arsenal could go three home matches in a row without scoring for the first time since 1908.
Toney returns at pivotal moment for Brentford
Ivan Toney is back and not a moment too soon. Brentford are in freefall having lost seven of their last eight Premier League matches (and their last five in a row) to leave them just three points above Luton Town in 18th.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
Everton
EVE
|
38 | -11 | 40 |
| 16 |
Brentford
BRE
|
38 | -9 | 39 |
| 17 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
38 | -18 | 32 |
| 18 |
Luton
LUT
|
38 | -33 | 26 |
| 19 |
Burnley
BUR
|
38 | -37 | 24 |
| 20 |
Sheffield Utd
SHU
|
38 | -69 | 16 |
Toney returns just in time to face arguably the Bees' biggest rival in the battle against the drop.
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Nottingham Forest have won two matches in a row under new head coach Nuno Espirito Santo yet they are only one point above Brentford, meaning defeat to Thomas Frank’s side would plunge them back into trouble. It certainly seems unlikely that both Brentford and Forest will go down, making this a six-pointer of sorts.
Toney is just what Brentford need for the challenge. He has scored in all three of his previous league matches against Forest. Meanwhile, in his absence, nobody has underperformed their xG more than Brentford this season, with the Bees scoring 7.6 goals fewer than expected.
Last campaign, thanks to Toney’s 20 Premier League goals, they ended the campaign on just -0.8 xG, which was the fifth-best score in the league.
That lethal touch in the penalty area is probably all Brentford need to get out of this ditch – and to avoid a sixth consecutive league defeat, which would be their worst run since March 1993 in the second tier, where they lost seven in a row.
Sinisterra faces Bradley in potential thriller
This should be a thrilling end-to-end game between two sides in excellent form who are happy to pour forward in straight-lined attacks.
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AFC Bournemouth have won more points than anyone else in the Premier League over the last eight matches, with 19; Liverpool are second in that form guide, with 18. Bournemouth have scored nine goals in their last four home league encounters; Liverpool have scored six goals in their last three away league matches.
The reason for all those goals is that Andoni Iraola and Jurgen Klopp both preach similar tactics, in which the forwards are released quickly via urgent vertical passes that aim to take advantage of counter-attacking opportunities or the space that opens up when possession changes hands.
Inevitably, that leads to basketball games like the one we saw when Bournemouth were beaten 3-1 by Spurs in their last match.
Liverpool are heavy favourites, primarily because they prefer open contests to ones in which they are tasked with breaking down a deep-lying defence.
However, 30 per cent of Bournemouth’s attacks come down the left (Liverpool’s right), the highest proportion of any team in the division, which may concern Liverpool supporters given that Trent Alexander-Arnold’s injury, plus a crisis at left-back, means Klopp has no senior players for the right-back role.
What’s more, Bournemouth’s forwards love to take players on. Iraola’s side sit fourth in the charts for successful take-ons, with 203, and stand-in left-winger Luis Sinisterra completed five of his six take-ons against Spurs last time out.
Sinisterra is also top among Bournemouth forwards for take-on success rate with 60 per cent, which puts pressure on 20-year-old Conor Bradley, expected to make his Premier League debut at right-back after impressing in the EFL Cup victory over Fulham.
Ward-Prowse can expose Sheff Utd's weak spots
West Ham United have an excellent record beating those struggling at the bottom. They have won each of their last 11 Premier League matches against sides starting the day in 20th, which includes a 2-0 win over Sheffield United in the reverse fixture in September.
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Only Man City (on a current run of 12) have ever had a longer streak in Premier League history and so Hammers fans are likely feeling confident ahead of Sunday’s match.
And why wouldn’t they? Sheff Utd have conceded the first goal in 16 matches this season, a league-high number, while West Ham have conceded the first goal only seven times, the third-fewest behind Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal, who have conceded five and six respectively.
David Moyes' side have also kept a clean sheet in each of their last four league matches, and given that Sheff Utd have only managed a single clean sheet all season, the visitors will fancy their chances of making it five in a row for the first time since January 1991.
But there is an even bigger factor in their favour.
Sheff Utd have conceded a league-high 13 Premier League goals from crosses this season and only two teams have conceded more shots from set-pieces than their 92.
Meanwhile, no player has assisted more goals from crosses than James Ward-Prowse, with five, and West Ham sit third in the charts for set-piece xG, with 7.9.
Brighton have a sliding doors moment
On the surface this might not look like a particularly big game for either Brighton & Hove Albion or Wolverhampton Wanderers, and yet defeat for Roberto De Zerbi’s side could have big consequences down the line.
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A Wolves win would move Gary O’Neil’s side level on points with Brighton in 10th, therefore leaving the hosts on the precipice of falling out of the top half for the first time since April 2022.
That could take a big psychological toll on these players. Yet if Brighton were to win on Monday evening, recording back-to-back league wins for the first time since September, it could be spun as the end of their mini-wobble as they climb back up to sixth or seventh.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
38 | +14 | 63 |
| 7 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
38 | +23 | 60 |
| 8 |
Man Utd
MUN
|
38 | -1 | 60 |
| 9 |
West Ham
WHU
|
38 | -14 | 52 |
| 10 |
Crystal Palace
CRY
|
38 | -1 | 49 |
Better yet, after the Wolves match Brighton face Luton, Palace, Spurs, Sheff Utd and Everton in their following five matches: a kind run of fixtures that would give them a real chance to build some momentum again.
The chances of a Brighton victory are increased by Hwang Hee-chan’s absence from Wolves' squad due to his involvement in the Asian Cup.
Hwang has been directly involved in 43.3 per cent of Wolves’ 30 Premier League goals this season, scoring 10 goals and assisting three. The only two players with a higher share are Salah, at 51.2 per cent, and Dominic Solanke, at 46.4 per cent.