Football writer Ben Bloom looks at Ipswich Town's chances of securing Premier League safety as they host relegation rivals Wolverhampton Wanderers.
At the start of this week Ipswich Town supporters were the only set of fans across the top four tiers of English football unable to celebrate a league win this calendar year.
A period of eight defeats – including one that provided the rarest of Southampton wins – and two draws from 10 matches appeared to point at an immediate return to the Championship for Ipswich.
See: How Southampton could be relegated this weekend
Then, unexpectedly, they stunned an AFC Bournemouth side with designs on qualifying for Europe.
Suddenly, after Wednesday’s 2-1 triumph, there is a flicker. It may be no more than that, but Saturday’s visit of Wolverhampton Wanderers provides hope that, against all odds, relegation may not be a foregone conclusion.
Victory would cut the deficit to six points [albeit with an inferior goal difference] to Vitor Pereira’s side, as well as providing successive Premier League wins for the first time in a tough campaign.
Back in December, Ipswich secured a late 2-1 victory at Wolves thanks to Jack Taylor who scored a stoppage-time winner.
So what are the chances of pulling off one of the all-time great Premier League escapes?
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 |
Wolves
WOL
|
30 | -17 | 29 |
| 18 |
Ipswich
IPS
|
30 | -33 | 20 |
| 19 |
Leicester
LEI
|
30 | -42 | 17 |
| 20 |
Southampton
SOU
|
30 | -49 | 10 |
Is there precedent for Ipswich to follow?
There are a few examples of one victory acting as a catalyst to turn around situations that had appeared hopeless.
The biggest points deficit ever overcome to stay up after 30 matches of a Premier League season was by West Ham United in 2006/07. At that stage, Alan Curbishley’s side were eight points from safety, having been 10 behind a match earlier.
Inspired by Carlos Tevez, they picked up 21 points in their final nine matches, more than the 20 points earned in their opening 29 matches, and beat Manchester United on the final day of the season to finish 15th.
Bradford City, in 1999/2000, and Fulham, in 2007/08, both came from six points behind at an even later stage when just five matches remained.
The Fulham turnaround, winning their final three fixtures, began with a remarkable comeback to beat Manchester City having been 2-0 down with 20 minutes left. Defeat would have sent them down that afternoon.
Benefiting from two matches in hand, Sunderland recovered when seven points from safety 32 matches into the 2013/14 season. Four successive wins included victory at Chelsea, which ended Jose Mourinho’s 77-match unbeaten run at home.
Leicester City’s great escape in 2014/15 saw the Foxes triumph in seven of their last nine matches to climb off the bottom spot and finish 14th.
Manager Nigel Pearson was subsequently replaced by Claudio Ranieri over the summer, and the club then produced the most miraculous of all Premier League title wins.
How can Ipswich stay up?
It has been a chastening return to the Premier League for Ipswich after 22 years out of the top flight.
Kieran McKenna’s side have won a mere four matches all season, one of which came against Saturday’s opponents when Jack Taylor’s 94th-minute header secured a 2-1 triumph at Wolves in December.
McKenna this week insisted there is “still belief” among his players that Ipswich can avoid relegation, adding: “It’s going to take something pretty special, no doubt about that, but that’s what we’re going to try and do one game at a time.”
One major impediment to success this season has been a lack of consistency in team selection.
No top-flight side has made more changes to their starting XI than the 90 of Ipswich, and they are one of only two teams yet to name the same starting line-up for back-to-back matches.
Wednesday night’s winning team did not include the injured duo of Omari Hutchinson and Leif Davis, both of whom have been mainstays when available. With neither guaranteed to return in time for Wolves’ visit, McKenna might finally avoid making any alterations.
Too reliant on Delap?
Aside from Liam Delap, who has scored 11 Premier League goals, Ipswich have struggled to make much attacking impact this season.
Julio Enciso has battled injury since arriving on loan from Brighton & Hove Albion in January, but the talented young Paraguayan provided an excellent assist in the win over Bournemouth, offering a reminder of his game-changing quality that will be crucial if Ipswich are to produce something miraculous.
Of course, even victory on Saturday will not disguise the extent of their colossal task. Matches against three teams in the top six – Chelsea, Arsenal and Newcastle United – immediately follow, before a seemingly gentler end to the season against Everton, Brentford, Leicester and West Ham.
They will hope to still be in striking distance by the time those fixtures come around.
