Manchester City’s 3-1 victory over Brentford on Monday night has put them in the driving seat for the Premier League title and has led to many pundits predicting Pep Guardiola’s side will pull away from the challengers.
But you have to go back a long way to find a three-horse Premier League title race as close as this one.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
Only two points separate Liverpool, City, and Arsenal at the top of the table, while Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur also remain remarkably close after Matchweek 23.
The gap between the top five is seven points, although this may have extended to eight had Man City’s home match against Brentford not been postponed to accommodate the hosts’ FIFA Club World Cup fixtures.
Nevertheless, the Premier League has rarely, if ever, felt so condensed and competitive at the top.
Here’s a look at how 2023/24 compares to seasons gone by – and a look at how, where, and when the Premier League title race will be decided this year.
The next six rounds look particularly crucial for each of the top three.
Only in nine previous Premier League campaigns have two points separated the top three at least 23 matches into a season, and only five times has this happened since the turn of the century.
How 2001/02 title race unfolded
In 2001/02, after Matchweek 35, Arsenal were top with Liverpool one point below and Manchester United two points behind.
However, Arsenal had a fixture in hand at that point and indeed Arsene Wenger’s side won the title by seven clear points.
How 2008/09 title race unfolded
In 2008/09, the top three were separated by two points after Matchweek 23, although Man Utd were two points clear of the others with a match in hand.
They were eventual winners by four points, with Rafael Benitez’s Liverpool in second and Chelsea in third.
How 2009/10 title race unfolded
The following season, 2009/10, was even closer, as a mere two points separated Man Utd, Chelsea, and Arsenal with seven matches to play.
This time, Arsenal dropped like a stone, while Carlo Ancelotti’s Chelsea moved past United to win the title by a single point.
How 2013/14 title race unfolded
Things were tighter still in 2013/14, when there was a two-point gap between Liverpool, Man City, and Chelsea after Matchweek 37, although City’s fixture in hand meant that Brendan Rodgers’ side had already lost control by that point.
How 2015/16 title race unfolded
The most recent instance of a gap as small as this year’s came in 2015/16, when Leicester City were top after 26 matches, but only two points ahead of third-placed Arsenal.
Incredibly, Claudio Ranieri’s team stormed to the title by 10 clear points.
History teaches us that when three teams are as tight together as they are in 2023/24, very rarely do all three remain in the race through to May.
In fact, 2013/14 is the only season in which the gap was smaller than seven points by the time the curtain came down.
Man City’s tough end to March could disrupt momentum
Five consecutive Premier League wins have made Man City firm favourites to win the title, not least because they were in a similar position last year.
In fact, after 22 matches they have one more point (49) than at this stage in 2022/23, before they went on to win 14 and draw one of their next 15 matches, winning the title with two matches to spare.
But there is no guarantee they will embark on a similar run, even if the return of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland is an ominous sign for the challengers.
City have kept just one clean sheet in their last 12 Premier League matches, and Brentford produced several high-quality chances on the counter-attack – as many others have against the champions in 2023/24.
Looking at their fixtures up until the international break, Everton, Chelsea and AFC Bournemouth are all capable of counter-attacking sharply against Man City’s high line.
Man City drew 4-4 at Stamford Bridge in November and another end-to-end match is plausible, but Everton were beaten 3-1 and Bournemouth 6-1 in the reverse fixtures. Sean Dyche and Andoni Iraola will need to be savvier this month.
There is certainly some danger there, but more importantly Man City travel to Anfield on 10 March before hosting Arsenal after the international break.
Clearly those head-to-heads are vital for Man City. In years gone by, they have pulled away with a long winning streak at around this point.
But this time, Arsenal and Liverpool have the opportunity to disrupt City’s momentum.
Flat-track bullies Liverpool need a "Big Six" win
Liverpool have only dropped four points to sides outside the traditional "Big Six" this season, drawing 1-1 at Luton Town in November and 2-2 at Brighton & Hove Albion in October, yet they have won just one of their seven against the "Big Six" (D5 L1).
That is something Jurgen Klopp needs to address immediately - their next match against such high-calibre opposition is Man City, a fixture Liverpool almost certainly have to win if they are to finish above them.
Before that, they ought to continue their record as flat-track bullies, even if Mohamed Salah’s injury keeps him out for most of February.
Liverpool won four and drew one of the reverse fixtures against Burnley, Brentford, Luton and Nottingham Forest, and it seems unlikely that at Anfield, Luton can snatch a point as they did at Kenilworth Road.
Their performance against Arsenal was poor, but Liverpool were flying before that, and following Klopp’s shock announcement of his departure the team should remain focused and galvanised for the challenges ahead.
It looks likely that both Liverpool and Man City will remain within touching distance of each other right up until their decisive head-to-head.
Arsenal face West Ham flashback and need to add goals
Of the three frontrunners, Arsenal arguably face the most difficult next six weeks despite their morale-boosting 3-1 victory over Liverpool last weekend.
That’s because they begin the run at West Ham United, the site of a two-goal collapse on 16 April last year, that led on to a 3-3 draw with Southampton and then a 4-1 defeat to Man City.
Arsenal supporters will already be getting flashbacks, especially having lost 2-0 to West Ham in the league in December.
But if they win at London Stadium, making it four in a row in the Premier League, then the Gunners will feel the confidence flowing ahead of a simpler run of matches.
Four of their six league fixtures after that are at Emirates Stadium, and the two away trips are against strugglers Burnley and Sheffield United. That presents a real opportunity to build a head of steam before the crucial six-pointer at Man City on 31 March.
However, we cannot downplay Arsenal’s goalscoring and creativity issues, which continue to bubble away in the background even during their recent winning streak.
Only three Premier League teams have a lower shot accuracy than Arsenal’s 30.7 per cent, but more importantly they lack a striker who makes instinctive runs – and has a killer instinct – in thornier matches.
They lacked a clinical touch in defeats to West Ham, Fulham, and Villa in December, and there remains a possibility the problem will rear its head again.
History suggests that by the end of March it’s more likely than not that one of the current top three will fall away.
But Liverpool, Man City, and Arsenal all have reason to believe they will consistently beat the weaker teams through this period. All eyes, then, are on those two enormous matches at the top.
