Rasmus Hojlund’s (£7.2m) two goals against Luton Town have made him a top target for managers in Fantasy Premier League.
The Manchester United star is the most-bought forward and second most-bought player overall after he collected 13 points in Sunday's 2-1 win.
The Dane's double at Kenilworth Road has earned him more than 140,000 transfers in as managers prepare their squads for the absence of a number of big-hitters in Blank Gameweek 26 (BGW26), when four teams are without a fixture.
Hojlund’s display against the Hatters continued his remarkable turnaround in form in Fantasy. After blanking in each of his first 14 appearances of his debut campaign, he has now scored seven goals and supplied two assists in his subsequent six outings.
Indeed, Hojlund’s total of 55 points from Gameweek 19 onwards is more than any other forward in Fantasy.
How do other forwards compare?
Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8.7m) sits in second place on 51 points in that period and has also been involved in nine goals, scoring four and assisting a further five.
Carlton Morris’s (£5.0m) all-round contribution for Luton has been a big part in his success as a standout source of value in Fantasy. He has scored two of his four goals since Gameweek 19 thanks to his penalty duties, also supplying four assists to collect 44 points.
Just one point separates Liverpool's Darwin Nunez (£7.6m) and Manchester City's Julian Alvarez (£6.7m), who both, like Morris, have another match yet to play in Double Gameweek 25.
AFC Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke (£6.9m) is tied on 36 points with Alvarez after returning to form with a goal, an assist and 12 points against Newcastle United last weekend.
Having suffered heavy sales in recent Gameweeks, Solanke’s schedule in Gameweek 27-28 marks him out as a key target. Bournemouth play all three promoted sides in that spell and are one of only two sides, along with Luton, to have a Double Gameweek 28.
Ivan Toney (£8.2m) has made an immediate impact upon his return to first-team action. The Brentford talisman has blanked just once in five matches, thanks to four goals and an assist.
Indeed, Since both Toney and Erling Haaland (£14.4m) have returned to action recently, Toney has the better record for points per match (ppm). Ahead of their clash at the Etihad Stadium on Tuesday, Toney has averaged 6.4ppm compared with the 5.3ppm of Haaland.
Top-scoring forwards, GW19-25
| Player | Pts | G | A | Bonus | ppm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hojlund | 55 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 9.2 |
| Watkins | 51 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7.3 |
| Morris | 44 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7.3 |
| Cunha | 40 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 6.7 |
| Adebayo | 38 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6.3 |
| Nunez | 37 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 5.3 |
| Solanke | 36 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 5.1 |
| Alvarez | 36 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 5.1 |
| Muniz | 33 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 8.3 |
| Toney | 32 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6.4 |
How has Hojlund improved?
The underlying numbers show Hojlund has improved his involvement in quality scoring opportunities since Gameweek 19. All 11 of his shots have been from inside the box, with his average quickening from 58.8 minutes to 47.3 across those two periods.
While his "minutes per big chance" statistic has also picked up pace, those numbers haven't been markedly better. Instead, it is Hojlund’s accuracy and goal conversion rates which have significantly jumped.
In the first 18 Gameweeks, he had 18 shots and six of them were on target, equating to a 33.3 per cent accuracy. Since then, Hojlund has had 11 shots, nine of which have been on target. He has scored with seven – or 63.6 per cent - of those efforts.
This upturn has had no impact on his creativity, with the Dane averaging 87 minutes per key pass across both periods.
Hojlund before and after GW19
| GW | Mins/shot in box | Mins/big chance | Shot accuracy | Goal conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-18 | 58.8 | 104.6 | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| 19-25 | 47.3 | 87.3 | 81.8% | 63.6% |
Rivals have better underlying stats
When assessed against other forwards in Fantasy, it’s clear that Hojlund’s goal conversion rate has been the key to his success.
He has had just 11 shots in the box since Gameweek 19, a total bettered by 13 other forwards and less than half the 23 of Nunez.
Alvarez, Solanke and Watkins also place among the top five for this statistic, as does Haaland. The Man City star has averaged 17 minutes per shot in the box in this spell, over 30 minutes quicker than Hojlund for each attempt.
Meanwhile, Hojlund places seventh for big chances. While his tally of six is just three off the summit, he has again been outdone by rivals Toney and Watkins, who have had eight and seven respectively.
Both those forwards have a match scheduled in Blank Gameweek 29, whereas Man Utd would be without a fixture if they defeat Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup fifth round.
Forwards compared, GW19-25
| Player | Big chances | Shots in box | Shots on target | Goal conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nunez | 9 | 23 | 17 | 16.1% |
| Toney | 8 | 11 | 10 | 22.2% |
| Solanke | 7 | 19 | 7 | 13.6% |
| Watkins | 7 | 18 | 11 | 17.4% |
| Isak | 7 | 13 | 9 | 23.1% |
| Welbeck | 7 | 10 | 8 | 8.3% |
| Alvarez | 6 | 21 | 15 | 13.8% |
| Adebayo | 6 | 14 | 7 | 35.7% |
| Morris | 6 | 13 | 10 | 25.0% |
| Hojlund | 6 | 11 | 9 | 63.6% |
| Haaland | 5 | 17 | 5 | 11.1% |
So, should managers buy Hojlund?
While Hojlund’s current levels of goal conversion are unsustainable, his record for the season stands at a more realistic 24.1 per cent. Still, that represents a big improvement from his 16.7 per cent when he was with Italian side Atalanta last season, when he scored nine goals from 54 shots.
Whether Hojlund can maintain this run of netting almost one goal per four shots remains to be seen. But either way his displays in this season’s UEFA Champions League, where he scored five goals from 11 shots, indicate he can make a big impact in the final three months of 2023/24 Fantasy.
Certainly, while Watkins has long-established himself as the best partner for Haaland in Fantasy, Hojlund looks set to rival Solanke and Toney for the third forward slot. He also offers an appealing option for managers who are playing their Free Hit chip in either BGW26 or Blank Gameweek 29 (BGW29).
Man Utd’s home fixture against Fulham this weekend offers a great opportunity to invest temporarily in Hojlund. He provides a strong replacement for owners of Solanke in BGW26, when Bournemouth face Man City.
Meanwhile, managers who are planning to play their Free Hit chip in BGW29 can simply focus their transfers on the short-term schedule and deal with BGW29 when it comes around.
By transferring Hojlund in now, they can profit not only from his fixture against Fulham but also his home match against Everton in Gameweek 28, although it is worth noting this fixture is preceded by a visit to Man City.
If Man Utd then have a BGW29 and their home fixture against Sheffield United is postponed, those managers can just remove Hojlund from their squad temporarily.
Should the Red Devils exit the FA Cup, then Hojlund would also became a vital pick in BGW29 line-ups anyway, with a home encounter against Sheffield United making him a strong captaincy option for the reduced round of matches.
View all the latest FPL tips ahead of Gameweek 26 in Fantasy Premier League