Alex Keble analyses where the upcoming fixtures in Matchweek 29 could be won and lost.
- Luton v Nott'm Forest could be decisive
- Fofana can give Burnley hope with goals against Brentford
- Spurs must capitalise on momentum in top-four race
- McGinn's absence a big loss for Villa at West Ham
Will Luton set-pieces decide six-pointer?
There might not be a lot of Premier League action this weekend, but a clearer Saturday means more eyes on a critical six-pointer at the bottom of the table.
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It is difficult to imagine that, come May, more than six points will separate the two sides – and the odds of both Luton Town and Nottingham Forest surviving are slim. It all comes down to this.
Neither team are in any kind of form. Luton have lost six of their last eight Premier League matches at Kenilworth Road and each of their last three, but more significantly could be deeply wounded by letting a three-goal lead slip at AFC Bournemouth on Wednesday.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
Everton
EVE
|
38 | -11 | 40 |
| 16 |
Brentford
BRE
|
38 | -9 | 39 |
| 17 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
38 | -18 | 32 |
| 18 |
Luton
LUT
|
38 | -33 | 26 |
| 19 |
Burnley
BUR
|
38 | -37 | 24 |
| 20 |
Sheffield Utd
SHU
|
38 | -69 | 16 |
Meanwhile, Forest have won just two of their last 24 away matches in the competition, the most recent coming at Newcastle United on Boxing Day, plus they haven’t scored a goal in any of their last three matches in all competitions.
But Luton, however troubled by Wednesday’s match, hold a clear advantage in one area: set-pieces.
Only Everton and Arsenal have scored more goals from set-pieces than Luton’s 12 and Forest have conceded more set-piece goals (17) than anyone else, letting in seven more than they "should" have done according to an (Expected Goals) xG against of 9.46 from dead-balls.
Most set-piece goals 23/24
| Team | Set-piece goals | Set-piece xG |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 18 | 11.17 |
| Everton | 15 | 15.55 |
| Luton | 12 | 9.33 |
| Aston Villa | 12 | 9.49 |
That tells us they are particularly poor at defending even half-chances from free-kicks and corners, and scoring from these is Luton’s specialty.
What’s more, Carlton Morris has scored in each of his last three outings at Kenilworth Road and Luton have scored in 13 of their 14 Premier League home matches in 2023/24.
Only Manchester City, Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur (all 100 per cent) have scored in a higher share of their home fixtures than Luton (93 per cent).
Can Fofana help Burnley take final chance?
Burnley are 10 points behind Forest in 17th with 10 matches to play. They are fast running out of time for a great escape, and indeed should they enter the final international break on an 11-match winless run, well… it becomes extremely difficult to see a way out.
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A home encounter against struggling Brentford, who have only won 10 points from their last 17 matches in the Premier League, is arguably Burnley’s last chance to turn their season around.
Things can change quickly at the bottom. A win on Saturday could close the gap to seven points, and with three of the bottom five still to play, suddenly there would be a glimmer of hope that Vincent Kompany can inspire a turnaround.
If that is to happen, Burnley will need David Datro Fofana to keep playing like he has been.
The striker, on loan from Chelsea, has been involved in four of the six goals that Burnley have scored since his debut in January.
Fofana's goal v West Ham
A thunderous strike from @DatroDavid ⚡ pic.twitter.com/WEj7BHhpYk
— Burnley FC (@BurnleyOfficial) March 11, 2024
And Fofana will be looking forward to facing a Brentford defence that might struggle without the injured Ben Mee and Ethan Pinnock.
Thomas Frank was able to restrict Arsenal last weekend by sitting his team deep and absorbing pressure, but that kind of humility won’t be possible against a fellow relegation candidate.
Fofana will almost certainly be given chances to launch one final, desperate shot at Premier League safety for Burnley.
Can Spurs take control of the top-four race?
As things stand, Villa are still two points clear of Spurs, albeit having played an extra match, meaning that Ange Postecoglou’s side have to capitalise on the momentum shift or risk their 4-0 victory last weekend becoming a footnote.
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It feels unlikely they will let this moment slip.
Spurs have won eight of their last 12 Premier League matches, and had it not been for their temporary collapse through a winless November, they would still be in the title race.
They are certainly favourites for the top four, not least because the absence of European football gives them free and refreshing midweeks.
Their forwards are in top form, too. Timo Werner has been involved in four goals in seven appearances (two goals and two assists), while Son Heung-min has scored 14 and assisted eight across his last 21 Premier League matches.
But Fulham are no pushovers. In fact, only clubs currently in the top five plus Newcastle have won more home matches in the competition than Fulham’s eight.
Their recent good form – three wins from five matches – is thanks to the emergence of Rodrigo Muniz, who has scored five goals in his last six Premier League matches.
An injury to Micky van de Ven means Spurs’ high defensive line has lost some of its recovery pace, potentially handing Fulham the opportunity to counter at speed and set up chances for Muniz.
He won’t need many to find the back of the net.
Can Villa break West Ham down without McGinn?
It’s vital that Aston Villa bounce straight back from that damaging 4-0 home defeat to Spurs, and having won each of their last three on the road – by an aggregate score of 10-3 – Villa supporters will be confident of doing so.
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But a trip to West Ham United is tougher than it might seem, even after David Moyes’ side dropped two points at home to Burnley last weekend.
Unai Emery’s Villa don’t particularly enjoy long periods of possession, especially if the opponent has little interest in pressing and instead stays in a low block, which is West Ham’s specialty.
West Ham’s PPDA (passes per defensive action, which measures the intensity of a team’s pressing) – is 16.5, the third highest score in the division behind Sheffield United and Forest.
They will sit back, let Villa have the ball and invite the visitors to try to break them down.
That’s far from an impossible task, but it’s made significantly harder by the absence of John McGinn, Villa’s captain and chief playmaker, who is suspended for Sunday’s match.
With Jacob Ramsey and Boubacar Kamara also out, Villa are relying upon 20-year-old Tim Iroegbunam, who is expected to be handed his first Premier League start at London Stadium.
That is likely to slow Villa down a little, while West Ham’s deep position should deny space to Ollie Watkins, who has scored a brace in each of his last two away Premier League matches, provided the forward recovers from a cut to the knee that forced him off in Thursday UEFA Europa Conference League win over Ajax.
More worrying still for Villa, West Ham’s counter-attacks, led by Lucas Paqueta, are a serious threat against Emery’s high line, especially with ex-Villa forward Danny Ings to come off the bench.
Ings was superb in a brief cameo against Burnley, hitting a post, scoring a marginally offside goal and then netting the equaliser.
This is a deceptively tough challenge for Villa. Emery needs to hope that Thursday night football, fatiguing for both of these sides, has a bigger effect on the hosts.