Adrian Clarke looks at key tactical points and players who can be decisive in Matchweek 30.
Team analysis - Manchester City
To win a fourth successive title, Man City cannot afford to keep dropping points against their immediate rivals.
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Remarkably, the defending champions are yet to beat a top five side in the Premier League this season.
They lost 1-0 at Arsenal and Aston Villa and gave up leading positions before having to settle for draws against Liverpool (twice) and Tottenham Hotspur.
While the visit of the Gunners is not in “must-win” territory just yet, City will be desperate to end this unusual pattern on Sunday.
Tailing off after half-time
Pep Guardiola’s side have struggled in the second half of key matches this season.
Their standards dropped markedly in the recent 1-1 draw at Anfield, with Liverpool out-shooting them 12-3 and registering an Expected Goals (xG) of 2.14 from half-time onwards.
It was a ragged end to the match that followed on performances against Arsenal, Villa, Spurs and Liverpool (at home) where City also lost their way in the second period.
Jack Grealish’s strike against Spurs is their only goal after half-time in those five matches, while they shipped six goals.
These stats below indicate how losing control in those pivotal encounters has impacted City.
Man City goals v top five first & second half 23/24
| First half | Second half | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored | 4 | 1 |
| xG | 4.27 | 2.39 |
| xG against | 1 | 6 |
| Ex. goals against | 2.4 | 4.09 |
If those fixtures against the current top five had finished at half-time, City would have earned 11 points.
Yet due to a dip in levels after half-time - coupled with some terrific second-half performances from their opponents - the champions ended up taking only three points.
Based on this pattern Arsenal will feel that if they can stay in the match on Sunday, they have a strong chance of picking up a positive result.
Direct problems
In the past, direct attacks have been recognised as the best way to threaten this brilliant Man City side, and that has certainly been the case this season in their toughest tests.
Arsenal’s winning goal from Gabriel Martinelli stemmed from one long pass from back to front that unsettled the City defence.
Villa, Liverpool, and Spurs all scored from quick counter-attacks against them, too.
Unsettle City's rhythm
If you are bold enough to unsettle Man City’s rhythm by pressing them hard, this season’s key matches have told us that they wobble.
City boasted low pass-accuracy levels inside the final third in defeats against Arsenal (63.7 per cent) and Villa (69.5 per cent). In both matches the champions created very few clear-cut openings.
Their distribution under pressure from a fired-up Liverpool at Anfield was also poor from half-time.
It is not often that City are ruffled, but quality pressing did help Jurgen Klopp’s side get on top in that fixture.
Liverpool 1-1 Man City turnover stats
| Liverpool | Man City | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Pressures resulting in turnover | 22 |
| 13 | Pressures resulting in turnover in final third | 9 |
| 71 | Transition opportunities | 65 |
Giovani Lo Celso’s goal for Spurs at Etihad Stadium came from a turnover situation that left the hosts light on numbers, and Liverpool’s penalty in that last meeting, was earned when Darwin Nunez worked hard to close down a short backpass.
Rewards are there for teams who go toe-to-toe with the champions.
As one of the strongest pressing teams in the division, Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal will work hard to force turnover situations as often as possible.
Man City may have laboured at times this season, but on their own turf they are still phenomenally strong. They have gone 25 matches unbeaten at home since last tasting defeat at the hands of Brentford in November 2022.
City have also scored in every league match at home since October 2021.
While this seasons below par second-half performances are a concern, Arsenal will not expect City to take their foot off the gas again in this important match for both.
