This will be the largest Double Gameweek of 2023/24, with SEVEN sides playing twice – Arsenal, AFC Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Everton, Liverpool, Sheffield United and Wolverhampton Wanderers.
The Scout is comparing players in each position who have a Double Gameweek 34 (DGW34) to help Fantasy Premier League managers make the right moves.
Midfielders
Who’s most likely to score?
The underlying statistics show just why Mohamed Salah (£13.5m) will be heavily favoured by managers in DGW34.
Although he has scored only twice over the last six Gameweeks, the Liverpool star’s totals of 26 shots, 19 shots in the box, six big chances and 11 shots on target are all more than any other DGW34 midfielder.
Salah has averaged 14.2 minutes per shot in that spell but has suffered from an unusually poor goal conversion rate of only 7.7 per cent.
His team-mate Luis Diaz (£7.8m) and Arsenal’s Kai Havertz (£7.4m) place among the top three for both shots in the box and big chances.
Havertz has the edge over the Colombian in terms of accuracy, by seven shots on target to five, and goal conversion – he has scored with 16.7 per cent of his shots compared with 12.5 per cent for Diaz.
Bukayo Saka’s (£9.0m) average of 32 minutes per shot is quicker than his team-mates Havertz and Martin Odegaard (£8.6m). However, Saka and Odegaard have had just one big chance each compared with Havertz’s four.
The former pair are clearly struggling for accuracy, with a combined three shots on target – half of the six of their team-mate Leandro Trossard (£6.5m).
Elsewhere, Bournemouth’s Justin Kluivert (£4.6m), Crystal Palace star Eberechi Eze (£6.0m) and Sheff Utd’s Ben Brereton Diaz (£5.0m) have impressed lower down the price scale in Fantasy.
Kluivert’s 14 shots and six shots on target both sit third in the analysis over the last six Gameweeks, with the Cherries winger scoring twice and supplying an assist in that run.
Brereton Diaz has profited from his role up front for the Blades, scoring twice. He could be an especially good option in FPL Challenge in DGW34, where players from promoted sides earn double points.
Goal threat, GW28-33
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances | Shots on target | Goal conversion | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salah | 26 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 7.7% | 2 |
| Diaz | 16 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 12.5% | 2 |
| Havertz | 12 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 16.7% | 2 |
| Kluivert | 14 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 14.3% | 2 |
| Eze | 11 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9.1% | 1 |
| Saka | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| Odegaard | 11 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9.1% | 1 |
| McNeil | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trossard | 9 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 11.1% | 1 |
| Brereton Diaz | 7 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 28.6% | 2 |
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Who’s most likely to get an assist?
Diaz is among four Liverpool players who have made 10+ key passes over the last six Gameweeks.
The Colombian and Dominik Szoboszlai (£7.1m) are tied on 14 each, along with Everton’s Dwight McNeil (£5.4m).
Crystal Palace’s Eze again impresses here, mirroring the 11 key passes and two big chances created of Salah.
Bournemouth duo Lewis Cook and Ryan Christie (both £5.0m) also feature. Although the former has the advantage for key passes by 13 to 10, Christie leads his team-mate by three big chances created to zero.
Arsenal pair Odegaard and Saka have supplied 10 and eight key passes respectively, but their lack of big-chance involvement is again evident, with a single big chance created between them.
Sheff Utd’s Gustavo Hamer (£4.9m), meanwhile, has blanked just once in his last five appearances. The midfielder has scored once and supplied three assists in that run, tallying 23 points.
Assist potential, GW28-33
| Player | Key passes | Big chances created | Mins/chance created | Assists |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diaz | 14 | 3 | 30 | 1 |
| Szoboszlai | 14 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| McNeil | 14 | 1 | 32 | 1 |
| Cook | 13 | 0 | 41 | 0 |
| Salah | 11 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Eze | 11 | 2 | 37 | 1 |
| Sarabia | 10 | 2 | 42 | 1 |
| Mac Allister | 10 | 1 | 45 | 1 |
| Christie | 10 | 3 | 43 | 2 |
| Odegaard | 10 | 1 | 44 | 0 |
| Hamer | 8 | 3 | 53 | 3 |
| Saka | 8 | 0 | 40 | 0 |
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What about the opposition defences?
Assessing the recent defensive displays of the DGW34 sides’ opponents can help give a better indication of their chances of attacking returns.
The underlying numbers show that Sheff Utd and Bournemouth are set to face the worst defences.
The Blades’ opponents Burnley and Manchester United have a combined Expected Goals Against (xGA) of 26.80 across their last six matches.
Bournemouth face Aston Villa and Wolves sides who have a combined xGA of 22.03, with Liverpool placing third on 20.46.
Everton and Wolves, by contrast, appear to have the toughest tasks in their quest for goals.
Their DGW34 opponents have combined xGA scores of 12.59 and 11.27 respectively, less than half the tally of Sheff Utd’s opponents.
Opposition defensive stats, last six matches
| Team | Opponents' xGA | Opponents' combined xG |
|---|---|---|
| Sheff Utd | BUR (10.24), MUN (16.56) | 26.80 |
| Bournemouth | AVL (11.72), WOL (10.31) | 22.03 |
| Liverpool | FUL (8.56), EVE (11.90) | 20.46 |
| Arsenal | WOL (10.31), CHE (8.55) | 18.86 |
| Crystal Palace | WHU (11.12), NEW (7.26) | 18.38 |
| Everton | NFO (6.33), LIV (6.26) | 12.59 |
| Wolves | ARS (4.04), BOU (7.23) | 11.27 |
So, who should managers buy?
The statistics only strengthen the captaincy credentials of Salah as the best attacker for DGW34. He’s clearly getting plenty of chances, and Liverpool are still creating them. The Egyptian’s finishing skills have just been letting him down recently.
Diaz’s numbers also show why doubling up on the Reds’ attack can pay off, while Havertz’s goal threat makes him the best option to pair with Saka from the Arsenal attack.
Elsewhere, Eze has the all-round potential to offer huge value in Fantasy, while the goal threat and team data indicates that Bournemouth’s Kluivert - owned by under one per cent of managers - is being overlooked.
In FPL Challenge, Brereton Diaz and Hamer are certainly worth considering given Sheff Utd are the only one of the promoted sides who play twice.