Alex Keble analyses where the upcoming fixtures in Matchweek 35 could be won and lost including:
- Arsenal's biggest remaining hurdle in title bid
- Can Kompany claim another Old Trafford win?
- Salah aims to rediscover his form
- Nuno targets yet another win over Pep
- How Rogers can exploit Chelsea's flanks
- Palace aim to keep momentum going
- Can Sheff Utd avoid unwanted record?
- Why there is hope for Luton
- Which of Calvert-Lewin or Wissa will shine?
- Will Brighton halt their slump?
Can Arsenal pass their final big test?
Liverpool’s defeat at Everton on Wednesday surely means it’s now a two-horse race for the Premier League title.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Man City
MCI
|
38 | +62 | 91 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
38 | +62 | 89 |
| 3 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
38 | +45 | 82 |
That ought to sharpen minds at Arsenal. They have outlasted Liverpool and, with four matches left, the trophy is starting to come into focus.
There is one major hurdle left - and it’s this weekend.
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OK, a trip to Old Trafford in a fortnight’s time brings its own problems, but Manchester United twice fell behind to bottom club Sheffield United on Wednesday, eventually coming back to end a six-game winless run, excluding their FA Cup victory over Coventry on penalties.
Arsenal will feel confident of beating Erik ten Hag’s side. They will feel a lot more apprehensive about the north London derby.
It promises to be an entertaining encounter, which of course will only increase the nervousness of Arsenal fans – and of Mikel Arteta, who craves the kind of control that eluded his team in the first half against Chelsea on Tuesday night.
The Gunners wrestled back control of that match, and forced a Chelsea capitulation, by slowing things right down and pinning the visitors back, as highlighted in our post-match analysis.
They are unlikely to get that sort of territorial dominance at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where the hosts have scored in each of their last 25 Premier League matches.
Then again, there are two pieces of good news for Arteta. First, Destiny Udogie’s injury weakens Spurs' left side, where Bukayo Saka and Ben White combined very well against Chelsea in midweek.
More significantly, Arsenal tamed Spurs' counter-attacks in the reverse fixture for most of the first half, only for the game to get away from them – and finish 2-2 – after Declan Rice was forced off at the break.
This time, Rice is fully fit and ready to lead Arsenal’s most important north London derby in a generation.
Will Kompany inspire a famous win at Old Trafford?
If Burnley are to pull off the great escape they will need at least one famous, miraculous moment.
They need a modern equivalent of that Robbie Blake goal in August 2009, when Burnley beat Man Utd 1-0 in the first top-flight match at Turf Moor for 33 years.
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It’s a big ask to emulate those scenes, but needs must. Ten Hag’s Man Utd certainly aren’t as good as Sir Alex Ferguson’s side back then, so there’s hope, and yet Burnley’s only away wins this season have come against sides who were promoted either this season or last.
Then again, Burnley have lost only one of their last seven Premier League matches and won 4-1 at Sheffield United last time out, while Man Utd have conceded seven goals in their last three home encounters in all competitions.
As a player, Kompany won five of his nine visits to Old Trafford. He has haunted this ground before. He knows how to be at the centre of a big story. Could this be their moment?
Can Liverpool salvage good ending, starting with Salah goal?
“I can't say now that we are still fully in it,” Jurgen Klopp said after Wednesday's 2-0 defeat to Everton. “We need a crisis at Man City and Arsenal and need to win football games, because if they start losing all their games and we do what we did tonight, nothing changes.”
It was a brutally honest assessment from Klopp after another disappointing Liverpool performance.
“This is the end of the title run for Liverpool,” Jamie Carragher said on Sky Sports. “They just have to make sure they finish the season strongly.”
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That is easier said than done. When the fight feels over, when the heart sinks, maintaining a high level of performance is very difficult, especially with the sadness of Klopp’s departure now looming heavily over each game.
If Liverpool are to go out with their heads held high they need Mohamed Salah to rediscover his best form.
Salah has scored two goals in his last seven Premier League appearances, but beyond his goalscoring touch he is lacking match sharpness.
West Ham United might offer him a chance to get back into his rhythm. They have won only one of their last eight Premier League home matches, but more importantly, Salah has scored 11 goals against the Hammers in all competitions, only netting more against Man Utd in his Liverpool career, with 14 goals.
Can Nuno pull off another shock win against Guardiola?
You won’t find many Nottingham Forest supporters expecting even a point this weekend, for blindingly obvious reasons.
But if there is a ray of hope, it’s Nuno Espirito Santo’s surprisingly good record against Man City. He was won three of his last five Premier League encounters with Pep Guardiola, and in each one he lined up the same way.
Nuno v Guardiola - last five encounters
| Date | Result | Nuno team's possession |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 2019 | Man City 0-2 Wolves | 24% |
| Dec 2019 | Wolves 3-2 Man City* | 62% |
| Sep 2020 | Wolves 1-3 Man City | 35% |
| Mar 2021 | Man City 4-1 Wolves | 25% |
| Aug 2021 | Spurs 1-0 Man City | 34% |
* Ederson sent off after 12 minutes
Going back slightly further to include a 1-1 draw at Molineux in August 2018, Nuno has only lost one of his four home Premier League matches against Man City and Guardiola, winning two and drawing one.
The tactical pattern is easy to spot. On every occasion Nuno has simply packed men behind the ball, soaked up pressure and then sprung forward in two or three-man counter-attacks that try to get behind City’s high line.
The best examples were Raul Jimenez and Adama Traore countering to a 2-0 win in 2019 and Son Heung-min and Lucas Moura sprinting clear in Spurs’ 1-0 success in 2021.
Forest have their own version of these partnerships: Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga will look to race down either flank on the break.
That might not be enough for Forest fans to believe. But it took Liverpool until the 98th minute to break the deadlock in a 1-0 win back in March. You never know.
Will Rogers attack Chelsea’s new tactical flaw?
If Aston Villa complete their first league double over Chelsea since 1989/90 on Saturday they will move nine points clear of Spurs, at least overnight, and be in a strong position to take the fourth and final UEFA Champions League spot.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
38 | +15 | 68 |
| 5 |
Spurs
TOT
|
38 | +13 | 66 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
38 | +14 | 63 |
| 7 |
Newcastle
NEW
|
38 | +23 | 60 |
You never quite know what you’re going to get from Chelsea these days, although there is a tactical issue in their middle third that is a consistent problem for Mauricio Pochettino – and Unai Emery will know how to exploit it.
In the midweek defeat at Emirates Stadium, Chelsea went behind to an early goal after the Gunners found space in the gaps left by undisciplined Chelsea wingers.
Emery studies his upcoming opponents and tweaks his tactics to target their vulnerabilities, but he won’t have to change anything to take advantage in the same way Arsenal repeatedly did.
Morgan Rogers was brilliant in the 3-1 victory over AFC Bournemouth last weekend, drifting in from the left wing to play almost like a No 10, taking up the "half-space" positions - the column of the pitch that runs between full-back and centre-back.
Villa, encouraging the Chelsea press and looking for those straight passes to set the forwards away, will be seeking out Rogers in the gaps behind Noni Madueke. The tactical battle is set up for a home win.
How high can Palace climb?
Crystal Palace are flying. Oliver Glasner has completely turned them around, his aggressive and proactive football releasing the Palace forwards' potential and, almost overnight, turning the club into a real force.
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They’ve won three Premier League matches on the trot now and Jean-Philippe Mateta, following a brace in midweek, has scored eight goals in nine matches under the new manager. That’s already more than he managed under Roy Hodgson (five in 35 matches) or Patrick Vieira (six in 44).
Fulham, who have lost their last two home matches, are seemingly on the slide as the season winds down.
It’s a common occurrence for mid-table clubs around this time of year - which is why Palace could rocket up the league.
The Eagles' highest-ever Premier League finish is 10th place, and although they are currently six points off that position, the four teams above them and in their way – Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove Albion, Wolves and Fulham – have collected a combined total of 10 points from 16 games (W2, D4, L10) over the previous four rounds of matches.
Beat Fulham, and Palace can set their sights on a top-half position.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 |
West Ham
WHU
|
38 | -14 | 52 |
| 10 |
Crystal Palace
CRY
|
38 | -1 | 49 |
| 11 |
Brighton
BHA
|
38 | -7 | 48 |
| 12 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
38 | -13 | 48 |
| 13 |
Fulham
FUL
|
38 | -6 | 47 |
| 14 |
Wolves
WOL
|
38 | -15 | 46 |
Can Sheff Utd avoid unwanted record?
Chris Wilder’s side arrive at St James' Park haunted by the spectre of the reverse fixture, an 8-0 defeat at Bramall Lane in September.
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On Wednesday, the four goals Sheff Utd conceded at Man Utd took them to 92 against, a Premier League record for a 38-match season.
The record in a 42-match season is 100. The Blades are eight short of that. Another 8-0 would take them to it.
Surely life wouldn’t be that cruel to them. Newcastle United, mind, have scored in all 17 of their Premier League home matches this season, and their return of 43 goals is already their most at St James’ Park in a top-flight campaign since 1996/97, when they scored 54 times.
Will Luton stop their slide against Wolves?
Luton Town’s hopes of safety suddenly feel a lot slimmer after Saturday’s 5-1 home drubbing by Brentford. Having been competitive throughout the season at Kenilworth Road, such a heavy defeat might prove fatal.
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Either way, they are running out of time to pick up points on home soil and may need an away win to stay above the dotted line.
Luton have only beaten Everton and Sheff Utd on the road this season, and the second of those was back on Boxing Day, but thankfully Wolves isn’t a bad place to go right now.
Gary O’Neil’s side have not won in six Premier League matches, suggesting that they are drifting through to the finish line.
In fact, Everton aside, Luton’s other three remaining opponents have won only one match from a combined total of their last six. There is still a window of opportunity for Rob Edwards' side – but it’s closing fast.
Which of Wissa and Calvert-Lewin will impress?
Thanks to the heroics of Yoane Wissa and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, this match between two sides in the bottom six is less important than it might have been.
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Calvert-Lewin’s outstanding performance against Liverpool capped a revival of fortunes for the Everton striker, whose three goals in four matches have helped Sean Dyche’s side to a vital 10 points.
Everton are virtually safe now, as are Brentford, whose gradual return to form has been driven by Wissa’s six goals in his last nine Premier League appearances.
Calvert-Lewin and Wissa are two of the division’s most in-form strikers at the moment. With the pressure off for both sets of players, that should mean goals.
Can De Zerbi fix away form?
It was only a few weeks ago that Roberto De Zerbi’s name was being linked with Liverpool, Bayern Munich and Barcelona, but Xabi Alonso’s unavailability coupled with reports of clubs' interest in Arne Slot and Ralf Rangnick seem symbolic of the sudden decline at Brighton.
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The Seagulls have won only two of their last 15 Premier League matches on the road and have failed to score in six of their 12 away matches across all competitions in 2024.
The trip to Bournemouth is their only remaining fixture against a bottom-half side this season, but Andoni Iraola’s Cherries are no easier to face than one of the top 10. They are unbeaten in five Premier League matches at home and won 1-0 at Wolves on Wednesday.
Brighton, now out of the top half, are in serious danger of their lowest league finish in three years.