Who’s the best differential captain to rival Haaland?

There are a number of in-form candidates who can challenge Erling Haaland (£14.2m) for the captaincy in the final Double Gameweek of 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League.

Manchester City’s forward is the most-owned player in the game ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 BST deadline. More than 70 per cent of managers have selected Haaland for his pair of Double Gameweek 37 (DGW37) trips to Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur. 

The Norwegian has scored seven goals and supplied an assist over his last four league appearances to collect 44 points.

His team-mate Phil Foden (£8.4m) has matched that points total, thanks to five goals and an assist, while Kevin De Bruyne (£10.5m) has chipped in with a goal and two assists.

Chelsea star Cole Palmer (£6.3m) and Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak (£8.4m) have both scored five goals and supplied an assist in their previous four outings.

Meanwhile, Spurs’ talisman Son Heung-min (£9.9m) has scored twice to claim 17 points in that spell.

Player form, last four matches

*Clean sheets. Midfielders earn one point for a clean sheet, while forwards are not rewarded.

Who has had the greatest attacking threat?

The underlying statistics show why Haaland has been such a big success over those last four appearances.

Aside from his lofty 41.2 per cent goal conversion, he betters his armband rivals for minutes per shot, as well as shots in the box and big chances.

Isak is the closest contender for goal threat. Newcastle's Swede - who hosts Brighton & Hove Albion and visits Manchester United - places second in the analysis for both shots in the box and big chances, with 14 and eight respectively.

Ahead of Chelsea's trips to Nottingham Forest and Brighton, Palmer's all-round influence on their attack is all too apparent. 

His 17.2 minutes per shot is surpassed only by Haaland's 16.8 minutes here, while his eight shots in the box and six big chances both claim third spot.

Furthermore, Palmer sits joint-top with De Bruyne on nine key passes, with his two big chances created second only to the Belgian's four.

Player attacking threat, last four matches

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How are they performing home/away?

The home/away statistics again lend weight to Haaland's captaincy claim.

He's had 28 big chances in away matches alone, compared with Isak's total of 35 across the entire season. Added to his four big chances created, this means the Man City star has been involved in a big chance every 33.6 minutes on his travels in 2023/24.

Isak also fares well in the assessment. He's second only to Haaland for minutes per big chance involvement and minutes per shot in the box, while his 28.6 per cent goal conversion knocks the Norwegian's 22.2 per cent into second spot.

Palmer, by contrast, has been far less threatening in away matches and has averaged 134.4 minutes per big chance involvement, converting just 13.2 per cent of his shots. 

Player form, home/away 23/24

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How do their opponents compare?

Assessing the form of each player's upcoming opponents can help managers decide on who's most likely to get more goals or assists.

Man City's prospects certainly look encouraging here, with both their DGW37 opponents, Fulham and Spurs, sitting in the bottom four for big chances conceded across their last four matches.

Their combined total of 24 big chances conceded was more than the 18 of Isak's opponents, Brighton and Man Utd.

Son backers will be pleased by the statistics ahead of his two home encounters with Burnley and Man City. The Clarets have conceded 55 shots in the box across their last four matches, just four fewer than the combined 59 of Palmer's opponents, Nott'm Forest and Brighton. 

Opponents' form, last four matches

How do the opponents fare home/away?

Burnley's dire defensive record on the road lifts the appeal of Son once again.

They have conceded 238 shots in the box in away matches, which is 62 more than any other side here. They have also conceded 55 big chances, 10 more than Brighton's away tally of 45 in second spot.

As Man City have conceded 32 big chances in away matches, meaning Spurs' two opponents have a combined total of 87 for this statistic, which is the most favourable in the assessment.

There's little to separate Man City and Newcastle for big chances conceded by their opponents, with tallies of 83 and 81, whereas Chelsea trail by some margin on 58.

Opponents' home/away form, 2023/24

So, who is the best captain?

The underlying numbers show why Haaland will be so heavily backed, with his recent displays and season statistics in away matches near-impossible to ignore.

Nonetheless, this is a point in the campaign where many managers will be prepared to take a risk in their quest for mini-league glory, and there’s merit to also considering Palmer, Isak and Son.

In terms of current form, Palmer’s all-round ability – combined with those extra points for goals and clean sheets due to his midfielder classification in Fantasy – just about edges him ahead of Isak as the next-best option.

The Newcastle forward does have kinder fixtures, though, and there’d be no real surprise if he outscores the Chelsea star.

Meanwhile, Spurs’ home meeting with Burnley alone could be enough to help Son deliver a monster haul – you only have to look back to his previous meeting with the Clarets for evidence, with the South Korean scoring a hat-trick and earning 20 points in Gameweek 4.