The Scout continues to highlight the standout statistics, trends and lessons from 2023/24 Fantasy Premier League.
Assessing the Expected Goals (xG) data helps to compare each club's potential for attacking returns when playing either in home matches or away matches.
It comes as no surprise to learn that, of the 17 sides who have remained in the Premier League over the past two seasons, 14 of them have had a superior xG when playing at their own stadium.
Liverpool and Newcastle United have been the top two clubs for xG in home contests in 2023/24, with scores of 55.78 and 47.08 respectively.
Interestingly, both have been far more likely to score in home matches.
Liverpool's xG dropped to 33.58 in away matches this season, a difference of 22.20 in favour of their encounters at Anfield. Newcastle's xG in away matches was 30.17, a difference of 16.91 when compared with their displays at St James' Park.
AFC Bournemouth, West Ham United and Wolverhampton Wanderers have been the only clubs who performed better on their travels. The Cherries recorded an xG of 27.86 in home matches and 28.83 on the road - the difference of 0.97 in favour of their away matches was more than any other side.
Manchester City, meanwhile, have been among the most consistent for goal threat regardless of match location in 2023/24.
They placed fifth for xG in home contests, with a score of 41.47, near identical to their 40.46 in away encounters.
Not only was their away xG total almost seven more than any other side, it was bettered by only four others in home contests – Liverpool, Newcastle, Chelsea and Arsenal.
Clubs ranked by home/away xG disparity
| Club | Home xG | Away xG | xG Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 26.40 | 26.52 | -0.12 |
| Nott'm Forest | 25.25 | 25.13 | +0.12 |
| Wolves | 23.57 | 24.01 | -0.44 |
| AFC Bournemouth | 27.86 | 28.83 | -0.97 |
| Man City | 41.47 | 40.46 | +1.01 |
| Brentford | 31.79 | 28.05 | +3.74 |
| Fulham | 28.29 | 23.27 | +5.04 |
| Crystal Palace | 27.54 | 21.60 | +5.94 |
| Brighton | 32.99 | 25.02 | +7.97 |
| Man Utd | 32.57 | 24.33 | +8.24 |
| Everton | 32.60 | 22.30 | +10.30 |
| Spurs | 39.77 | 29.18 | +10.59 |
| Arsenal | 44.47 | 32.95 | +11.52 |
| Chelsea | 44.71 | 30.55 | +14.16 |
| Aston Villa | 39.71 | 25.01 | +14.61 |
| Newcastle | 47.08 | 30.17 | +16.91 |
| Liverpool | 55.78 | 33.58 | +22.20 |
The xG per 90 minutes numbers show Newcastle's Alexander Isak was the top-ranked player in home matches in 2023/24, with a score of 1.05.
Yet the Swede suffers significantly when assessing those displays against his away goal threat. Isak's xG per 90 minutes on the road drops to 0.57.
It's a similar story for both Mohamed Salah and Cole Palmer, whose xG per 90 minutes dropped by 0.52 and 0.55 respectively in the home/away comparison.
When it comes to Erling Haaland, however, it's another matter entirely. The Man City star was just edged into second spot by Isak at home, with a score of 1.02.
But Haaland's goal threat actually improved in away matches thanks to an xG per 90 minutes score of 1.04. Indeed, he was the only regular starter in 2023/24 Fantasy who had an xG tally of over one goal per 90 minutes in away matches.
Top-ranked players xG/90 disparity
| Player | Home xG | Away xG | xG Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 1.02 | 1.04 | 0.02 |
| Isak | 1.02 | 1.04 | 0.48 |
| Salah | 0.99 | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| Palmer | 0.94 | 0.39 | 0.55 |
A further delve into the away data emphasises Haaland's peerless potential for goals.
His total of 50 shots on the road was joint-second among all players with Ollie Watkins, bettered only by the 59 of Dominic Solanke. The Norwegian was also the runner-up to Solanke for shots in the box, by 47 to 51.
In terms of gilt-edged scoring opportunities, though, Haaland leaves his rivals trailing by a huge margin.
Indeed, apart from the 17 big chances of Solanke, Haaland's total of 31 chances in away matches was more than TWICE that of any other player in Fantasy this season.
What makes that even more impressive is that the Man City star only started 14 away matches, in addition to another appearance off the bench.
Top-ranked players for goal threat, away matches
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Big chances |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | 50 | 47 | 31 |
| Solanke | 59 | 51 | 17 |
| Watkins | 50 | 42 | 15 |
| Jackson | 31 | 27 | 15 |
| Isak | 31 | 25 | 15 |
Essentially, the data shows that Pep Guardiola's tactics make Haaland every bit as threatening on his travels as he is when playing at the Etihad Stadium.
Although the likes of Isak, Salah and Palmer were just as likely to score in home matches, Haaland is so far ahead of the rest on the road, there seems no doubt that he will, once again, be essential for Fantasy managers next season.
