How Aston Villa's midfield could look without Douglas Luiz

Alex Keble on how Aston Villa can cope with losing the influential Douglas Luiz and how their new-look midfield could look.

Team analysis - Aston Villa

UEFA Champions League qualification was supposed to bring with it greater power in the transfer market.

Instead, perhaps the only truly irreplaceable player in the Aston Villa squad is on his way to Juventus. Losing Douglas Luiz is a nightmare start to the summer for Villa supporters.

Douglas Luiz has been one of Villa’s best players since their return to the Premier League in 2019/20, but it is only under Unai Emery that the 26-year-old has blossomed into a complete central midfielder.

The configuration of Villa’s midfield is undoubtedly the most important part of the Emery project.

If they are to repeat their 2023/24 performance and continue to push on, Emery needs to find a way to move beyond Villa’s talismanic, all-action Brazilian. It won’t be easy.

Villa’s linchpin

Douglas Luiz is arguably the most important Villa player in each of the three thirds, excelling in his attacking output, controlling of central midfield and launching the fast transitions that define Emery’s football.

He scored nine goals and assisted five more in the Premier League last season, amounting to more goal contributions (14) than any Villa player besides Ollie Watkins and Leon Bailey.

That’s pretty remarkable for a player whose raw output is not the most valuable part of his game, and yet he is statistically one of Villa’s most creative players.

Douglas Luiz had 598 touches in the attacking third last season and created 53 chances, on both counts more than any other Villa player.

Douglas Luiz attacking stats 

But what really defines Douglas Luiz is a mixture of his metronomic midfield possession – recycling the ball elegantly in tight spaces – and his progressive passing and ball-carrying, which drove Villa forward throughout 2023/24.

Last season, Ezri Konsa was the only Villa player to complete more passes than Douglas Luiz (1,800), whose 54.1 completed passes per 90 minutes was the highest among Villa midfielders.

Similarly, his 2,351 touches of the ball was the most of any Villa midfielder, while only five Premier League midfielders completed more long passes than Douglas Luiz’s 167.

That graceful self-assurance in central areas, where Douglas Luiz’s strength and intelligence ensured he regularly controlled matches, explains why only Manchester City miscontrolled the ball fewer times than the 477 of Villa last season.

Douglas Luiz’s progressive style was perfect for Emery

That kind of passing ability would be useful in any team, but Douglas Luiz was particularly important to Villa for his capacity to embrace Emery’s tactics.

Emery wants Villa to play in the transition, cutting vertical passes through the lines at every opportunity and drawing out the opposition press in order to create more space to gallop into.

In 2023/24, Douglas Luiz completed 1,394 carries, more than any other Villa midfielder. He also topped the Villa charts for carries into the final third, with 48, and midfielder passes into the final third (137), while only John McGinn completed more than his 168 progressive passes.

Douglas Luiz ball-carrying/passing stats 

*Among Villa midfielders

It’s a combination of those three things – progressive passing/ball-carrying ability; control of the game in the middle third and goal contributions in the final third – that Villa must somehow replace.

McGinn or Tielemans offer hope of a solution

The most likely solution is to share the role between McGinn, who notably performs well in most of the above metrics, and Youri Tielemans.

McGinn has a very different aesthetic, but his capacity to pivot on the spot under pressure and drive Villa forward is a huge asset at the base of midfield – where he has rarely played under Emery, perhaps until now.

The Scotland international only started 11 Premier League games in the deeper central midfield position last season, with Villa winning 23 points in those matches. That amounts to 2.1 points per game, significantly more than the 1.7 across the rest of the season.

Next season, Villa welcome back Jacob Ramsey and Emiliano Buendia from injury, and are looking to add at least one more winger, suggesting McGinn won’t be needed out wide as often as he was in 2023/24.

McGinn doesn’t quite have the same calm distribution, and certainly doesn’t tend to anchor the midfield in Douglas Luiz’s Rodri-like manner, but moved permanently into a No 6 position, the Villa captain could grow into the role.

Tielemans is another option here. Again, he is more comfortable higher up the pitch and looks to play assertive line-breaking football: he tops the Villa charts for progressive passes per 90, with 7.11, and through-balls (17).

But Tielemans does possess the short-passing ability to replace Douglas Luiz. His 83.1 per cent pass completion is only just short of Douglas Luiz’s 85.7 per cent, despite the Belgian playing riskier forward passes, suggesting in a more constrained role he could fulfil the Brazilian’s duties.

Barkley could be a like-for-like replacement

There is one more option, and although it might sound like a strange suggestion, the two players are more similar than you think.

Ross Barkley is expected to join Aston Villa from Luton Town this summer following an impressive comeback season in the Premier League.

Known for his ambitious passing, his dribbling through the centre of the pitch and his powerful runs into the final third, Barkley doesn’t look like a natural successor to Douglas Luiz.

But he morphed into a different kind of player at Luton, playing in a much deeper role from which he showed dexterity and simple calm in helping Rob Edwards’ side build through the thirds.

Perhaps surprisingly, his numbers in 2023/24 were similar to Douglas Luiz’s in a range of metrics we have already touched upon.

Douglas Luiz/Barkley comparison

One important difference is their involvement in the game, with Douglas Luiz touching the ball 70.6 times per 90 compared to Barkley’s 61.1, but that is entirely accounted for by Villa’s average 53.1 per cent possession, compared to Luton’s 42.4 per cent.

In a stronger team, Barkley’s possession stats should rise to Douglas Luiz’s level.

Douglas Luiz’s defensive work irreplaceable?

A combination of Barkley, Tielemans and McGinn might be able to cover the Douglas Luiz-shaped hole, then, although we have not yet talked about the defensive side of things.

Douglas Luiz is a superb counter-presser and defensive screen. Last season, he topped the Villa charts for tackles won (38), recoveries (184) and fouls conceded (51), while also ranking second for passes blocked (24) and top among midfielders for interceptions, with 23.

Douglas Luiz defensive stats

There is nobody in the team capable of hitting Douglas Luiz’s numbers, certainly not until Boubacar Kamara returns from a long-term injury towards the end of the year.

Barkley performed slightly above Douglas Luiz last season for combined tackles and interceptions (2.47 compared to 2.43) and recovered the ball more often than the Brazilian (6.91 compared to 5.53), but that is predominantly because Luton had to make considerably more defensive actions compared to Villa.

This is the one true unknown; the one aspect of Douglas Luiz’s departure that could derail Villa’s progress.

But with a full summer to work on the tactical recalibration, and with Barkley joining McGinn in a possible new role, Villa are better protected against the loss of Douglas Luiz than supporters might think.