Alex Keble looks at whether Manchester City can be stopped from winning a fifth successive Premier League title.
On the surface, Man City look unstoppable.
Their record-breaking fourth consecutive Premier League title, and sixth in seven years, gives the impression of a monopoly at the top; of an immoveable force that simply cannot be beaten.
That would be an overreaction.
Unlike monopolies in other leagues around Europe, Man City have only twice won the league at a canter. Liverpool and Arsenal have run them close in four of their six triumphs under Pep Guardiola.
Looking back on the last few seasons, there was always hope, the margins often razor thin. City were beatable then – and they are beatable now.
In fact, ahead of the 2024/25 Premier League season, Man City are arguably in a more vulnerable position than at any other point in the Guardiola era.
Man City reaching the end of an era?
The most significant factor of all is the question of Guardiola’s future, which will hang over the first few months of the campaign, potentially unsettling the players and triggering an even slower start than we saw in 2022/23.
“Last year, after Istanbul, I said ‘it’s over, there’s nothing left’. But I have a contract and I start to think ‘no-one has done four in a row, why don't we try?'" Guardiola said after winning the league in May.
“And now I feel it’s done, so what next? Now I don't know what exactly the motivation is because it's difficult to find it when everything is done.”
Motivation could be an issue for the players, just as it is for the manager. With no mountains left to climb, how can Man City maintain their competitive edge when hungrier, younger opponents Arsenal and Liverpool are chasing them down?
City may be waning – and not just psychologically. There is a growing list of reasons for their fans to worry, with forward Julian Alvarez set to join Atletico Madrid.
Kyle Walker struggled at UEFA EURO 2024 and, like Kevin De Bruyne, looks as though age is catching up with him.
Matheus Nunes and Mateo Kovacic haven’t been able to replace what was lost when Ilkay Gundogan left, yet Guardiola has indicated there will be no new additions.
This last point is particularly significant because minor deficiencies in central midfield explained virtually all of their dropped points last season.
In the 4-4 draw with Chelsea and 3-3 draw versus Tottenham Hotspur, chaos engulfed them because Rodri – missing the intelligent positioning of Gundogan - had too much to do alone at the base of midfield.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa and Wolverhampton Wanderers beat Man City because Guardiola could not control the midfield during Rodri’s absence.
Put that flaw together with possible motivation issues - on the pitch and in the dugout - and you get the sense of a project beginning to peter out.
It certainly would not be a surprise if City fell just short of the 91 points won in 2023/24.
Confident Arsenal have plugged the gaps
Arsenal won 40 points in the first half of last season and 49 in the second, reflecting the damage to their morale last autumn after their 2022/23 title bid collapsed spectacularly.
But Mikel Arteta’s side lasted right to the end in 2023/24, proving they are an elite team capable of sustaining a title challenge, even if they ultimately finished second.
That alone should shield them from a similar wobble in the first half of 2024/25, although more important still is the signing of Riccardo Calafiori.
Calafiori is a powerful defender most likely to play at left-back, mimicking the new trend of centre-backs fielded at full-back. It is a defensive patch-up Arsenal needed.
In the 2-0 defeat to West Ham United, Oleksandr Zinchenko made a poor error leading to the opener; in the 2-2 draw with Fulham, a last-minute equaliser was conceded after Zinchenko was needlessly dispossessed in his own half; and in the 2-1 defeat at Fulham, Jakub Kiwior was too easily beaten at the back post for Raul Jimenez’s opener.
A better left-back could stamp out these careless dropped points, making up the gap to Man City.
However, Arsenal could do with a new striker, because although Kai Havertz has excelled recently as a false nine, they still lack a proper goalscorer to make the difference in tight matches.
Gabriel Jesus underperformed his Expected Goals (xG) by 2.3 goals last season, while Gabriel Martinelli - notably less productive since Granit Xhaka’s departure - scored just six goals after netting 15 times the previous season.
Bring in a No 9 in and Arsenal should break the 90-point barrier, just as Man City dip.
Liverpool can be less chaotic under Slot
It would be pretty extraordinary if Arne Slot won the Premier League title in his first season in English football - not even Guardiola managed that - but he takes charge of a Liverpool side left in a very strong position by his predecessor.
Jurgen Klopp’s side were clear at the top of the table in early April, only for some chaotic performances to finally catch up with them.
In 2023/24 they conceded the opening goal a remarkable 17 times, reflecting the unwieldy nature of Klopp’s football while an entirely new central midfield bedded in.
In many ways, Slot will continue Klopp’s legacy. His Feyenoord side were very hard pressers and often played “crazy, sexy football” in the words of Dutch football journalist, Marcel van der Kraan.
But unlike Klopp, the new head coach craves order, with greater detail on positional instructions designed to prevent the sort of end-to-end looseness we saw in so many Liverpool matches last season.
“I certainly don't want to compare myself to Pep, but he is a control freak just like me,” Slot told Voetbal International in May 2023.
Control is the new buzzword at Melwood. This should help the likes of Darwin Nunez settle down, but more importantly prevent so many rash errors at the back and create calm in the middle.
That could be enough to win those extra few points in spite of Liverpool’s quiet summer window.
In fact, Slot’s new ideas favour some fringe players over regulars, meaning the team has been refreshed, even without new signings.
Harvey Elliott, for example, has excelled as a No 10 in Slot’s 4-2-3-1 formation during pre-season, while Ryan Gravenberch – who made his name at Ajax while Slot was coaching in the Netherlands – is the sort of ball-recycling, press-resistant midfielder who could flourish in the new system.
Then there’s Cody Gakpo, another compatriot of Slot’s who hit nine goals and 12 assists in just 14 matches for Feyenoord’s rivals PSV Eindhoven in the first half of 2022/23.
He finally found his feet towards the end of last season at Liverpool and looks like the perfect false nine for a more possession-centric approach.
So although winning the title is a tall order for Slot in year one, it isn’t out of the question.
Liverpool, who need to make up a nine-point gap to Man City, won 48 points at home last season - more than anyone else in the Premier League - but won 10 fewer than Man City on their travels.
If the players continue their Anfield form, and if Slot’s emphasis on control limits the chaos in away matches, Liverpool could instantly build on the Klopp legacy.
Looking at it from that perspective, with Liverpool rejuvenated and Arsenal coming back stronger yet again, it is Man City who should be most worried about the season ahead.