The Scout combines pre-season form with in-depth data from last season to ascertain the best captain contenders for Gameweek 1 of 2024/25 Fantasy Premier League.
A busy summer of international tournaments has heavily impacted how managers in Fantasy are approaching the start of the new season.
Cole Palmer (£10.5m), the top-scoring player in Fantasy last season, has played just 45 minutes under Chelsea’s new head coach Enzo Maresca due to his exertions for England at UEFA EURO 2024.
Meanwhile, Phil Foden (£9.5m) and Ollie Watkins (£9.0m), who were the second and third top-scoring players in 2023/24 Fantasy, have failed to play ANY minutes for their clubs ahead of Gameweek 1.
By contrast, there are a number of premium-priced stars who approach the new campaign with a full pre-season behind them.
Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak (£8.5m) enters a home fixture against Southampton on the back of three goals and an assist over the summer.
Erling Haaland (£15.0m) visits Chelsea having scored five goals for Manchester City in pre-season, joint-top among all players in Fantasy. That tally includes a hat-trick against Chelsea.
Similarly to Isak, both Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) and Son Heung-min (£10.0m) face promoted clubs this weekend.
Salah has a goal and two assists under Liverpool’s new head coach Arne Slot ahead of his trip to Ipswich Town. Son has warmed up for Tottenham Hotspur’s match at Leicester City by producing three goals and an assist over pre-season.
Elsewhere among the big-hitters, Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka (£10.0m) and Manchester United’s Bruno Fernandes (£8.5m) each started their club's final friendly match last weekend and look set to retain their place for Gameweek 1. Both also have very kind home fixtures, with Saka up against Wolverhampton Wanderers at Emirates Stadium and Fernandes facing Fulham.
How did they perform home/away in 23/24?
Isak's home displays are particularly encouraging here. The Newcastle forward's total of 14 goals last season places top in the analysis, with his 7.8 points per start (pps) in those contests also more than any of his rivals for the captaincy.
Haaland is his nearest challenger. Man City's talisman was involved in 16 goals in away matches - placing him top here - while his 6.9pps place second.
In truth, there's little to separate the contenders for goal involvement. Son has the slightest of edges over Saka in the assessment. He played a part in 14 away goals in 2023/24, whereas Saka was involved in 13 goals in home matches.
Salah and Fernandes' goal output is the least impressive on show, with only five goals each. The latter's average of 4.7pps at Old Trafford last season leaves him trailing his rivals by some margin here.
Home/away output 23/24
| Player | G | A | G & A | Pts per start |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isak (H) | 14 | 1 | 15 | 7.8 |
| Haaland (A) | 12 | 4 | 16 | 6.9 |
| Son (A) | 9 | 5 | 14 | 6.4 |
| Saka (H) | 7 | 6 | 13 | 6.3 |
| Salah (A) | 5 | 7 | 12 | 5.7 |
| Fernandes (H) | 5 | 5 | 10 | 4.7 |
What do the underlying statistics tell us?
The underlying statistics further enhance the appeal of Haaland and Isak.
Haaland was supplied with a league-high 31 big chances on his travels in the last campaign. Apart from Isak, that's at least three times more than any of the other armband contenders in the assessment.
Isak's 25 big chances in home matches was also a league-high figure. Notably, he was more prolific than the Norwegian in terms of goal conversion, netting 29.8 per cent of his shots, compared with Haaland's 24 per cent.
Whereas those two were mainly all about pure goal threat, the data shows that Saka, Fernandes, Salah and Son offered a more rounded contribution. In terms of big-chance involvement, a total of two separates all four players here.
Son's clinical finishing skills makes him the most appealing of that quartet, the South Korean scoring with 23.7 per cent of his shots in away matches in 2023/24.
By contrast, Saka and Salah sit around the 12 per cent mark, while Fernandes converted just 9.1 per cent of his attempts at Old Trafford.
Player attacking threat 23/24
| Player | Big chances | Big chances created | Big-chance involvement | Goal conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland (A) | 31 | 4 | 35 | 24% |
| Isak (H) | 25 | 2 | 27 | 29.8% |
| Saka (H) | 10 | 10 | 20 | 12.1% |
| Fernandes (H) | 8 | 12 | 20 | 9.1% |
| Salah (A) | 9 | 10 | 19 | 12.5% |
| Son (A) | 9 | 9 | 18 | 23.7% |
So, who is the best captain?
Both Isak and Haaland offer the strongest cases for the Gameweek 1 armband.
Isak's fixture - at home to a promoted side - arguably gives him the edge here. His goal conversion rate at St James' Park is outstanding, as his average of 7.8pps shows.
The data for big chances shows why Haaland could easily outscore him. But with so many key Man City players missing pre-season, there has to be more risk attached to backing the Norwegian.
Son's conversion rate on the road makes him the "best of the rest" and marks him out as a great differential. The Spurs star is owned by a mere 10 per cent of Fantasy managers, whereas Isak and Haaland are the two most-selected players, found in 58 and 48 per cent of squads respectively.