FPL expert Sam Bonfield gives the best advice on how to recover from a difficult opening Gameweek 1 in Fantasy Premier League, and explains why nothing is yet lost for managers.
Fantasy Premier League is probably best described as a rollercoaster.
There will be weeks where you are flying high and weeks where your team is in free fall. The opening Gameweek of the season is actually one of the biggest for feeling the highest of highs, and the lowest of lows.
Historically some of my worst Gameweek scores have come in Gameweek 1. Often this is because when I am building my squad I do so thinking about the opening period of fixtures, rather than just targeting the opening week. So when you look at an overall rank in the millions, or stare at a mini-league where you are 30+ points behind, it can be demotivating.
When Gameweek 1 goes badly, I always ask myself if I should just Wildcard out of this? In all of my 13 FPL seasons before this one the answer I have always come to is "no". Often the opening weeks of the season throw up some anomalies.
See: What is the Wildcard in Fantasy?
This summer we have had both COPA America and UEFA EURO 2024. Both of these competitions have resulted in the late returns of so many players ahead of the new campaign. Therefore, players such as Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) and Phil Foden (£9.5m) didn’t play the full 90 minutes, and in Foden’s case, came off the bench at half time. Gameweek 2 should start to bring some more security for FPL managers.
So Gameweek 1 went wrong. How do you bounce back?
Don’t overreact
It can be very easy to think "this is a complete disaster and I want to get rid of everyone". However, it’s very unlikely that all of your picks are wrong. More likely with one or two changes the whole feel and balance of a team can be improved. Rather than pushing the Wildcard button, think about whether with just a couple of transfers you could improve your team for Gameweek 2, and save the Wildcard for later.
Taking a -4 or even a -8 to bring in assets from Manchester City, for example, ahead of their home match against Ipswich Town, will almost certainly be repaid in one week.
See: More information on transfers and points hits
Taking a hit to change players should be considered by assessing the following:
- Will the player that I am looking to bring in cover the points hit?
- Will the player that I am looking to bring in improve my team over a series of weeks, not just for the next match?
- Am I making these transfers because I think that they will make my team better, or because I am angry?
When you have had a difficult week sometimes the best thing to do is to step away and wait for the press conferences. When you have all the team news from managers you can go back and make changes, meaning you will make informed decisions rather than overreacting.
Don’t chase points
Over the years many managers have asked me who they should bring in.
Later on in the season, it's a good idea to look at the highest-scoring players per position, as well as the players who are in the best form. However, at the beginning of the season this can be misleading.
Rather than bringing in the player who scored the highest points in the price bracket that you can afford, you are better to look at the underlying stats and fixtures.
Points chasing - by picking the highest-scoring players from the previous week - can pay off. However, it could also be that a player is benched the following week because they were only in the squad in Gameweek 1 due to players' late returns or injury. It may also be that the player’s stats suggest that they were lucky to return the points that they did.
Rather than chasing the points that you have MISSED, it is better to look ahead. Who has the best fixtures over the next two or three matches? Who had the best underlying stats in Gameweek 1?
Bruno Fernandes (£8.0m), for example, didn’t return in Gameweek 1 but he produced an Expected Goals Involvements (xGI) score of 1.22, which means he was unlucky not to have returned against Fulham. In fact his xG numbers were better than the likes of Erling Haaland (£15.0m), Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) Diogo Jota (£7.5m) and every player who scored in Gameweek 1.
Looking at the Expected Goals stats, shots on target, chances created and team performance is far better than chasing the previous top points-scorers.
Don’t give up
If at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.
It sounds silly to write, but actually not giving up is key here. You might be 30 points behind the leader in your mini-league, but one or two good decisions and you can catch up.
This is a game for 38 weeks. You can’t win or lose FPL in the opening week of the season. Indeed nothing here is won until the 25 May when Gameweek 38 brings the season to a close. One bad week, especially this early, is relatively easy to overcome. Keep going. Eventually a red arrow will be followed by a green one.
Remember this is fun!
FPL is a game. It is there to add to the fun of watching the Premier League matches. It is a brilliant ice-breaker and a fantastic fun activity to do with friends and family.
When you first play a board game, or a computer game, or get on a bike, it rarely goes perfectly first time. There are steps to learning. In a manager's first FPL season, the opening weeks are all about learning. What types of players are the best picks? Who are the must-haves? How to leave your Premier League loyalties to one side? Practice makes perfect in life generally, and in FPL too.
Even as an experienced manager I am still learning every season. Every season is different. Just look at Marcus Rashford (£7.0m) in 2022/23 FPL vs Rashford in 2023/24. Even when decisions go wrong, remember this is a game that’s meant to add to your enjoyment of football and be fun! Treat it as a fun activity, not as a job.
