Following the conclusion of Matchweek 3 in the 2024/25 Premier League season, Alex Keble looks at the key talking points and tactical lessons, including:
- Why things aren't that bad at Man Utd
- Haaland potentially breaking his own record
- Duran pushing Watkins out of the starting XI
- Postecoglou's tactics under scrutiny
- Southampton getting caught out at the back again
- Rice's red card being exploited by Brighton
- Nuno needing to improve Forest's home form
- Goals could become a problem for Fulham
- Jackson's finishing in the spotlight
- Everton's defeat possibly being a defining moment
Pressure builds again after familiar failings
The fallout began on Sunday evening, and unfortunately for Erik ten Hag the two-week international break means there is a lot of empty time to fill for fans and media with talk of a “crisis”.
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But Manchester United are not at breaking point, and as Ten Hag pointed out after the match, Liverpool’s Expected Goals (xG) of 1.7 wasn’t particularly high.
“It is not like I am Harry Potter,” Ten Hag said, essentially asking for patience as new signings bed in. And he’s right - things aren’t as bad as some would like to make them out to be.
But that won’t stop the criticism.
Some of it is legitimate. Casemiro’s mistakes for the first two Liverpool goals can be put down to the tactics, both in Casemiro being isolated in a 4-3-3 formation and Ten Hag’s instructions to his team to play urgently in the transition, as our analysis highlighted yesterday.
And what stood out on Sunday was the contrast between the two managers. Arne Slot has had only three matches in charge but has already put a visible structure in place, making Liverpool slower and calmer than under Jurgen Klopp.
Jamie Carragher, speaking on Sky Sports, was keen to point out that difference.
“We can see it with Slot in the first three games,” he said. “It doesn't mean he'll be successful but you can already see something. With United, it looks like a mess.”
His final word may be extreme but it’s a criticism often used in the last 12 months, and the manner of United’s defeat and the lack of opportunity for recuperation in the fortnight ahead, means that it will be heard frequently in the coming two weeks.
Fitter, sharper Haaland could break his own Premier League record
“He’s playing much better in everything,” Pep Guardiola said of Erling Haaland after Manchester City eased past West Ham United at the London Stadium.
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“He stays 20 minutes or half an hour after training sessions. Last season not even once was he there because he didn’t feel good - tired, niggles.
“We are happy for another hat-trick, the quality of the finishing, but he was involved with the game today, he didn’t lose one ball and he played unbelievable - not just with the ball, but also defensively and offensively.”
Haaland’s second hat-trick of the season, taking his tally to seven goals from just three Premier League matches, is scary enough. Guardiola’s comments should terrify Man City’s rivals.
His suggestion that Haaland hasn’t been fully fit over the last two years, and that he is now able to train for longer and stay on the pitch for longer, will surely lead to an even better goalscoring record moving forward.
Case in point, Haaland scored his third in the 83rd minute on Saturday and completed his hat-trick against Ipswich Town in the 88th minute. In years gone by Guardiola might have taken him off before either goal.
And Haaland simply looks sharper. His three goals at West Ham were clinical, while his involvement in build-up play made this arguably his best Premier League performance to date.
The current goalscoring record in a single season is 36, set by Haaland in 2022/23. If his fitness holds, Haaland might obliterate that figure.
Duran could push Watkins out of the first team
Speaking of strikers, it’s a completely different story at Aston Villa, where Ollie Watkins’ fitness and match sharpness are at a low.
Watkins, who is yet to score this season and holds the worst goals-to-Expected Goals (xG) rate in the Premier League with -1.6, spurned an early one-on-one at Leicester City that could have been as costly as his two big misses against Arsenal in Villa's previous match.
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Put through on goal by Youri Tielemans, Watkins looked to be lacking confidence as he advanced before he attempted to go round the goalkeeper rather than trust his finishing.
The timing is ideal for Jhon Duran, who has now scored two winning goals off the bench this season. He is the definition of a super-sub - of players to score seven or more Premier League goals, only Matt Derbyshire (90 per cent - 9/10) has seen a higher share come as a substitute than Duran (86 per cent - 6/7).
Villa host Everton in two weeks’ time and surely Unai Emery is thinking about starting Duran, especially if his attitude has changed.
“He doesn’t seem to have let anything in the summer affect him,” Villa captain John McGinn said after the match. “Maybe the penny has dropped. He’ll get his opportunities, chances and his goals. Even his attitude off the pitch… the way he is around people, around the staff - it has improved a lot - and it’s great to see.”
Postecoglou’s high-risk tactics again under scrutiny
“Usually in my second season I win things,” Ange Postecoglou recently told Sky Sports. “That's the whole idea. First year is about establishing principles and creating a foundation. Hopefully the second year is going onto win things.”
The data backs that up, and after Tottenham Hotspur dominated the second half at Newcastle United on Sunday, only to fall just short in the final third, we ought to acknowledge that Spurs could have gone into the international break confident of similar improvements this season.
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But it would be remiss not to talk about how Spurs threw the contest away at St James’ Park, where an all-too-familiar risky high line was once again exposed.
Newcastle’s winner, scored against the run of play, was textbook Postecoglou. Notice how high the Spurs line was, meaning as soon as the pressing intensity dropped Eddie Howe’s team could carve them open.
Here’s the issue. Perhaps unlike Postecoglou's managerial spells in Scotland or Japan, where the standards may be lower, the Premier League clubs have the coaches, video analysts and data analysts to study opponents in so much detail that any tactical flaw - and consistent tactical idea, even - will be revealed and exploited.
That might explain why Spurs have lost four of their previous six away Premier League matches, and why they have won 44 points from their last 31 Premier League encounters stretching back to November 2023.
Southampton get caught playing out the back again
This one isn’t strictly something we “learned” from the weekend action, more like analysis that bears repeating, because unless Russell Martin adapts his strategy Southampton are going to struggle to pick up points.
The first two Brentford goals resulted from Saints getting caught trying to pass the ball out from the back under pressure. That’s four goals conceded in three matches from the same problem.
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Southampton, who top the Premier League charts for errors leading to a shot, with six, cannot keep playing their way into trouble like this. Sharp pressers like Brentford - like most Premier League sides - will keep punishing them.
“We made two mistakes that we were punished for, which is frustrating and disappointing,” Martin said. “The details and structure of the team are not right. The players are doing what I’ve asked, but the positions are not right.”
That is clearly the case. For the first goal, below, Brentford have two players ready to take possession because Southampton are not sufficiently spread out to receive a pass.
Rice red card exploited by Brighton before Arteta had time to re-adjust
Mikel Arteta will be cursing himself for failing to act a little quicker.
Following Declan Rice’s red card in the 49th minute, the Arsenal manager spent 10 minutes analysing the fallout before bringing on Riccardo Calafiori for Leandro Trossard and moving to a 5-3-1.
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The change came seconds too late. With Calafiori on the touchline ready to come on, Lewis Dunk pierced the Arsenal midfield with a pass that exposed the gaps appearing without Rice.
Martin Odegaard was caught between his usual position in the forward line and dropping into Rice’s midfield role, creating the space for Dunk’s pass.
At first it looked like a phenomenal spot from Dunk, but this angle shows just how large a gap Arsenal had left through the middle.
By the restart, Arsenal were in a 5-3-1 that had the numbers in midfield to close off the space Dunk had found - a smart move, but just too late.
Nuno needs to improve Forest’s home form
Nottingham Forest have made a competent start to the season, winning five points and going unbeaten at the beginning of Nuno Espirito Santo’s first full season in charge.
But their failure to take three points against Wolverhampton Wanderers, despite holding more possession (52 per cent to 48 per cent) and producing more shots (16 to 11), is part of a wider pattern.
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Forest have won only four of their last 25 matches in all competitions at the City Ground, and the club’s home record has actually got worse under Nuno.
The have won once at home since mid-February, and a mere three times in 13 Premier League encounters since his appointment, picking up 13 points in total.
Safety will depend upon turning more of those home draws into wins.
Goals might be hard to come by for Fulham this season
Fulham were unable to add a striker over the summer, which means a second season without replacing Aleksandar Mitrovic.
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It might become a problem. Neither Rodrigo Muniz nor Raul Jimenez have scored this season, while Fulham's xG of 3.1 is the fourth-lowest in the Premier League.
That might not sound too bad, but when you consider Fulham have played two of the promoted clubs plus Man Utd - who conceded the second-most shots in the league last season - Marco Silva’s side really should be scoring better.
The added invention of Emile Smith Rowe won’t count for much if Muniz or Jimenez can’t step up.
Jackson finishing puts transfer activity back in the spotlight
For all the signings Chelsea made this summer they couldn’t quite get hold of a striker to challenge Nicolas Jackson for the No 9 spot. It could cost them dearly.
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Last season Jackson underperformed his non-penalty xG by 4.6, the fourth-worst score in the Premier League, and in the closing stages at Stamford Bridge on Sunday he missed the sort of one-on-one that elite strikers gobble up.
Jackson has scored six goals in his last eight Premier League matches, but the missed chances still stand out.
Everton collapse could be a defining moment
This was devastating for Everton; a shock that will reverberate around the club.
It’s the sort of crushing blow that can be very difficult to recover from, because in the space of a few minutes Sean Dyche’s side went from lift-off in 2024/25 to a new low.
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They are bottom of the table, without a point, and left to stew in “the third game we have thrown away this season,” in the words of Dyche.
“They were playing it forward and crossing it into the box and we didn't deal with it,” the manager added. “Simple stuff but we threw it away.”
That analysis is spot-on. Everton’s full-backs have been their biggest weakness all season, and so it was again on Saturday.
Two of the goals were crosses from the left to the back post - Seamus Coleman failing to stop the cross, Vitalii Mykolenko losing his man - and one was a cross from the right to the back post.
To lead at Goodison Park until the 87th minute and still lose could shake the club to their core. It is certainly unprecedented. No Premier League team have ever lost from a two-goal lead that deep into a match.
Dyche has two weeks to pick them up off the floor.
