Do Arsenal HAVE to win at Man City? History suggests maybe not

Conventional wisdom suggests if Arsenal are to claim their first Premier League crown, they will need to win away at Manchester City, the team who have pipped them to the last two titles, for the first time since 2014/15.

Mikel Arteta's side claimed four points off City last season with a triumph at Emirates Stadium, followed by a stalemate at the Etihad Stadium.

However, the champions’ midfielder Rodri argued that Arsenal only set out to secure a draw in Manchester, and that such a defensive approach ultimately made the difference between them finishing top of the league and coming second.

Rodri speaks on Arsenal after title win

"To be honest, I think it's in here, it's the mentality,” Rodri said, pointing to his head, as City celebrated winning the title on the final day of last season. 

"Arsenal also deserved [to win the league], they had an unbelievable season, but I think the difference was in here [the head].

"When they came here, they faced us at the Etihad, I saw them and said, 'Ah, these guys don't want to beat us, they just want a draw.'”

Former Arsenal striker Ian Wright hopes Arteta will have a different mindset in Manchester this time.

“We have to go there to beat them,” said the legend, relishing Sunday's clash.

But how important is it to win away to your nearest title rivals? Stats from the Premier League's 32 seasons so far suggest it is not as pivotal as you may think.

In fact, the eventual champions have only won 10 of the 32 fixtures when they have travelled to the team that would finish second.

The runners-up registered 15 victories in those encounters, and there have been seven draws.

In total, the teams that ultimately have won the title average a mere 1.16 points per match at the stadium of their closest challengers. 

Runners-up happy at home against the champions

The champions' away record against the runners-up is even worse when we look at the last six seasons. In that period, Manchester City were the only title-winners to beat their nearest rivals in their own backyard, winning 3-1 at Arsenal in 2022/23. 

Going back 11 seasons, there has only been one other such victory, when City won the Old Trafford derby against Manchester United in 2017/18. During that same time frame, the eventual champions were beaten five times away by the side finishing second. 

Of course, the timing of the visits and the state of the league when the matches took place cannot be discounted when analysing the stats.

Manchester United's away win over Newcastle United in March of the 1995/96 season and Arsenal's triumph at Old Trafford in 1997/98 were both considered pivotal in eventually finishing above their rivals.

On the other hand, Manchester United lost 5-0 at Newcastle in October 1996 to go five points behind but recovered to lift the title in the following May. Liverpool lost 4-0 at Manchester City in July 2020 but had already been crowned champions by then.

So history suggests that defeat for Arsenal at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, while obviously disappointing for Arteta's men, would by no means signal the end of their 2024/25 title hopes.

How the champions fared at their nearest rivals

*Points difference between eventual champions and eventual runners-up after the fixture was played