How to choose between the premium players in Fantasy

After Cole Palmer (£10.7m) racked up an incredible 25 points in Gameweek 6, while Erling Haaland (£15.3m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) failed to produce any attacking returns, The Scout delves into the data to help Fantasy Premier League managers pick the best premium players.

Haaland, Palmer and Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) have justified their hefty price tags over the first six Gameweeks of the new season.

The three most-expensive players in Fantasy are also the three top scorers, with only six points separating them at the top of the overall standings.

Haaland’s 10 goals have earned him 65 points and mark him out as the must-have player for millions of managers. The Manchester City forward’s ownership of 73 per cent is a huge 29 per cent more than any other player. 

Palmer and Salah’s all-round style of play has helped lift their output. The Chelsea star has matched the 10 goal involvements of Haaland, scoring six and assisting four to collect 61 points. Liverpool's Salah, meanwhile, has four goals and four assists, blanking only once. 

Elsewhere among the premium picks, while Ollie Watkins (£9.1m) and Saka are not quite mirroring the points-per-match (ppm) totals of Haaland (10.8), Palmer (10.2) and Salah (9.8), they have both started the season in consistent form.

Watkins and Saka have each been involved in six goals and are averaging 6.5ppm and 6.3ppm respectively. 

Output compared GW1-6

Who has had the most goal threat?

By analysing the underlying statistics, managers can get a better idea of the players who are most likely to score a goal.

It’s clear to see why Haaland has enjoyed such a prolific start to 2024/25. His 29 shots in the box are more than DOUBLE all his rivals, aside from the 19 of Salah.

However, when it comes to big chances – situations where the player it expected to score – it is Watkins who leads the way on 11, edging Haaland into second, with 10.

Saka is the big loser for big chances here – Salah and Palmer have each had seven, more than TWICE AS MANY as the Arsenal star’s three.

It’s also worth noting that although Palmer has managed a mere nine shots in the box, SEVEN of them have come in Chelsea’s last two matches.

Goal threat compared GW1-6

Who is most likely to get an assist?

Saka more than redeems himself when it comes to the creativity numbers, which assess his prospects of assists.

The Gunners’ talisman has produced 15 key passes and created nine big chances – both more than any of his rivals.

However, it’s Palmer’s statistics that are the most eye-catching and underline his peerless all-round potential for involvement in big chances.

The Blues midfielder has created seven big chances and has also been supplied with seven such opportunities, giving him a total of 14 big chance involvements – more than any other player this season.

The creative numbers also serve to highlight that Watkins and Haaland are mainly all about pure goal threat. While they top the rankings for big chances, the duo have created just one such opportunity apiece.

Indeed, Haaland’s total of 11 big-chance involvements is the LOWEST of the quintet, albeit only three behind Palmer at the summit.

Creativity compared GW1-6

Who has the best fixtures?

Using the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) can help guide managers’ transfers and captaincy plans over the upcoming period.

According to the FDR, Haaland unquestionably has the best schedule, with each of Man City’s next five matches scoring only two.

He starts that period with a home match against Fulham – a fixture in which he produced three goals, an assist and 20 points last season – and is bound to be the runaway captain pick for Gameweek 7.

Palmer has the toughest run of opponents over the same period. After his home encounter with Nottingham Forest this weekend, each of his subsequent four matches score at least three in the FDR.

While Saka and Watkins owners will be happy to hold for the short term, both do then embark on tougher short-term runs of opponents. Arsenal face Liverpool, Newcastle United and Chelsea over Gameweeks 9-11, while Villa face Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea across Gameweeks 10-13.

Although a visit to Arsenal in Gameweek 9 will be a concern for Salah backers, it is Liverpool’s fixtures in Gameweeks 10-11 that makes him an appealing pick. While Liverpool have two home matches against Brighton & Hove Albion and Aston Villa, Arsenal’s Saka visits Newcastle and Chelsea.

Managers will also be hoping that Son Heung-min (£9.9m) recovers from injury in time for Gameweek 8, as Spurs’ schedule can offer a solution here. They have three home matches over four Gameweeks at that point, including home matches against Villa and Ipswich Town in Gameweeks 10-11. 

Fixtures compared GW7-11

*1 = easiest possible fixture, 5 = hardest possible fixture

Rotate your mobile device to see full table

How did they fare in corresponding matches last season?

Salah and Haaland’s output in the same matches last season as they face over the next five Gameweeks also suggests they have the most favourable schedules.

Salah was involved in three of Liverpool’s corresponding fixtures last campaign and produced attacking returns on each occasion. He averaged 9.3 points per start (pps) in those encounters, with the highlight a 13-point haul at Crystal Palace. 

Haaland’s 20 points at home to Fulham is the highest individual score in the assessment, with the Man City star’s 9.0pps near-identical to Salah.

Meanwhile, Palmer’s goals at Manchester United and at home to Arsenal show his fixture-proof potential for the problematic spell in Gameweeks 10-11.

Output in same matches in 23/24 as next five GWs

Rotate your mobile device to see full table

So, who are the best premiums picks in Fantasy?

Haaland’s underlying goal threat statistics and upcoming schedule make him the standout premium to own over the next five Gameweeks.

His huge ownership means the Norwegian will almost certainly be the No 1 captain in Fantasy throughout this period, while a home fixture versus Southampton in Gameweek 9 will surely tempt some to use their Triple Captain chip.  

Salah’s numbers, schedule and output from last season suggest he looks the likeliest to run Haaland the closest, while Palmer’s huge all-round threat only strengthens his fixture-proof appeal and gives him the edge over Watkins and Saka.