The Scout looks at what to do with Nottingham Forest duo Chris Wood (£6.5m) and Ola Aina (£4.7m), who are among the three most-bought players in Fantasy Premier League ahead of Saturday’s 13:30 GMT deadline but have tough fixtures ahead.
Wood has earned more than 330,000 new owners after climbing to second spot in the forward standings on the back of eight goals in the first 10 Gameweeks.
Meanwhile, Aina’s career-high 15 point-haul against West Ham United has made him the most-bought defender, with 235,000+ managers bringing him in for Nott’m Forest’s home encounter with Newcastle United.
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However, a quick look beyond their match with the Magpies shows that Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have one of the toughest runs of opponents ahead.
They visit Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United from Gameweeks 12-15, and they then face Aston Villa in Gameweek 16, although a home encounter with Ipswich Town in Gameweek 13 does admittedly offer some respite.
Forest's fixtures
| GW | Opp. | FDR* |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | NEW (H) | 3 |
| 12 | ARS (A) | 5 |
| 13 | IPS (H) | 2 |
| 14 | MCI (A) | 5 |
| 15 | MUN (A) | 3 |
| 16 | AVL (H) | 3 |
*Fixture Difficulty Ratings: 1 = easiest possible match, 5 = hardest possible match
Without taking anything away from their fine start to the new season, there can be no denying that Nott’m Forest have enjoyed one of the most favourable opening runs of opponents of any side. Indeed, they have faced only two of last season’s top eight teams in their first 10 matches.
So, has the time to invest in Forest players been and gone, or can their stars continue to deliver great value in Fantasy? Let's look at some underlying data.
What is Wood's record against tougher opponents?
Certainly, Forest's displays in their two contests against top-eight sides from last season – away to both Liverpool and Chelsea – hint at a growing resolve among Nuno’s side this time around.
But an assessment of Wood’s goal threat in his 10 matches this season highlights his limited threat against tougher opponents.
He's had three or more shots against Wolverhampton Wanderers, Crystal Palace, Southampton and Leicester City. But on the other hand, he's been restricted to no more than one shot in five of his 10 outings, and there's no real surprise to see that Chelsea and Liverpool were among those more resilient opponents, despite Wood scoring at Stamford Bridge.
Wood's goal threat this season
| Shots in matches | Opponents |
|---|---|
| 5 | Wolves (H) |
| 4 | Crystal Palace (H) |
| 3 | Southampton (A), Leicester (A) |
| 2 | West Ham (H) |
| 1 | Bournemouth (H), Brighton (A), Chelsea (A), Liverpool (A) |
| 0 | Fulham (H) |
Assessing Wood’s record under Nuno last season also indicates he struggled when facing tougher opponents.
Although he averaged a respectable 5.0 points per match (ppm) in his six meetings with those clubs (Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Spurs, Chelsea and Newcastle), it has to be considered that 17 of those 30 points came in a single fixture, away to Newcastle.
Essentially, he earned a total of 13 points across five meetings with Arsenal, Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd and Spurs, with a solitary goal against the latter in those encounters.
Wood blanked in 66.7 per cent of his matches against top-eight sides last season, compared with only 40 per cent against the rest of the league.
Wood's output last season
| Statistic | Clubs 1-8 last season | Clubs 9-20 last season |
|---|---|---|
| Appearances | 6 | 10 |
| Blanks | 4 | 4 |
| Goals | 4 | 7 |
| Assists | 0 | 1 |
| Points | 30 | 65 |
| Points per match | 5.0 | 6.5 |
Is Forest's defence fixture-proof?
At the back, the numbers show Forest have one of the strongest defensive records in 2024/25 and their assets should be looked upon as long-term holds.
They have conceded a mere 13 big chances - situations where the player is expected to score - in the opening 10 Gameweeks, ranking joint-first with Fulham. They have also translated that resolve to Fantasy returns. Their total of four clean sheets is second overall, as is their seven goals against.
Forest's defensive stats this season
| Statistic | Total | League rank |
|---|---|---|
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2nd |
| Goals against | 7 | 2nd |
| Shots in box conceded | 72 | 4th |
| Big chances conceded | 13 | =1st |
Arguably, the idea of holding one of their defenders rather than a forward is mainly because you have five defenders in your squad compared with only three forwards, and it's therefore easier to bench and rotate a defender.
But goalkeeper Matz Sels (£4.6m) could be your set-and-forget option instead, with his multiple routes to returns allowing you to play him regardless of the fixture. In addition to his four clean sheets, he has earned a further 12 points from saves and bonus, which is the combined equivalent of another three clean sheets.
Who is the best Forest defender to own?
Nikola Milenkovic's (£4.5m) huge threat from free-kicks and corners is highlighted by the underlying statistics. The centre-back's six shots in the box are more than the rest of the back four combined, with Aina, Murillo (£4.5m) and Alex Moreno (£4.4m) managing five between them.
Milenkovic has also been involved in an impressive five big chances, more than twice the tally of any other Forest defender.
Murillo's all-round prospects are underlined by his seven shots and seven key passes. His total of 14 shot involvements leads the way among his backline rivals.
In spite of his weekend goal, Aina's real appeal is in his potential to collect bonus points when his side keep a clean sheet. He has produced eight bonus points across those four matches this season.
| Player | Shots | Shots in box | Key passes | Big-chance involvements |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milenkovic | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Moreno | 5 | 1 | 4 | 2 |
| Aina | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| Murillo | 7 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
*Rotate your mobile device to see the full table
So, is is too late to invest in Forest?
Wood's record against tougher opponents suggests he may struggle to maintain his recent momentum, and a short-term replacement should be considered. For managers who are also going without Erling Haaland (£15.3m) then you should have the funds to make Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) your No 1 target.
The Aston Villa forward plays at home against Palace, Brentford and Southampton in the Gameweeks when Wood visits Arsenal and the two Manchester clubs, and surely has far greater upside over those four rounds of fixtures.
In the similar price bracket to Wood, Brighton's Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) and Wolves' Matheus Cunha (£6.7m) or Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.6m) have great runs of opponents ahead.
In a season where clean sheets are hard to come by, Forest's defence are clearly worth investing in and keeping. The underlying numbers show their resilience has been no fluke, and Nuno's regulars look to be among the very best options in the sub-£5.0m bracket.
Milenkovic's goal threat gives him the edge as their best option, while Aina and Sels also merit consideration due to their own extra routes to returns.
Brighton’s Ferdi Kadioglu (£4.5m), Ipswich’s Leif Davis (£4.5m) and Wolves’ Rayan Ait-Nouri (£4.7m) are the best budget alternatives, with all three offering plenty of attacking potential and kind fixtures.
