Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Brighton punish Man City on the counter?
- Will Odegaard's return inspire Arsenal?
- Can Liverpool tighten grip on top spot?
- Van Nistelrooy to sign off in style v Leicester?
- Battle of the bottom two sides
- McNeil and Ndiaye to make the difference
- Does a fourth successive win beckon for Forest?
- Davis' duel with Porro could prove decisive
- Don't expect many goals at Selhurst Park
- Why Brentford can bounce back v AFC Bournemouth
Will Brighton hit Man City on the counter?
Manchester City’s three consecutive defeats in all competitions has left the team in a “dark place”, according to Bernardo Silva, and it’s pretty easy to work out why: Rodri’s injury has had exactly the impact we anticipated.
A trip to Brighton & Hove Albion is the last thing Pep Guardiola needs as he aims to re-steady the ship.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Last weekend AFC Bournemouth, predictably enough, snapped hard into a press in the middle third of the pitch to clamp down on a midfield pair of Mateo Kovacic and Ilkay Gundogan, before pouring forward in the transition through Antoine Semenyo and Marcus Tavernier.
On Tuesday Sporting Lisbon won 4-1, with both of their open-play goals resulting from issues around Kovacic (circled in yellow), who didn’t close down the through-ball for the first goal and then was turned too easily ahead of the second.
Sporting's first two goals v Man City
-
Kovacic (circled) was unable to get close to Quenda for Sporting's first goal
-
He was then beaten too easily in the build-up to Sporting's second
Kovacic (circled) was unable to get close to Quenda for Sporting's first goal
1 / 2
He was then beaten too easily in the build-up to Sporting's second
2 / 2
Fabian Hurzeler will attempt something similar, as the statistics show.
Brighton have made 79 tackles in the middle third this season, the third-most in the Premier League. They also rank second for attempted take-ons (216) and fourth for progressive carries, with 215.
Meanwhile, Man City have conceded 10 shots from "fast breaks", the fifth-most in the division. There is no doubt they look more vulnerable to counter-attacks this season - and Brighton are particularly skilled at exploiting this chink in the armour.
Can Odegaard galvanise Arsenal?
After making his return as a late substitute in the 1-0 defeat to Internazionale Milano in midweek, Martin Odegaard should play a significant role at Stamford Bridge. Arsenal have badly missed him, as we highlighted in our analysis this week.
Mikel Arteta’s side have recorded an Expected Goals (xG) below 1.0 in five Premier League matches this season and have had only six shots on target in total across their last three contests.
But beyond the obvious creative deficiencies in his absence, they have missed Odegaard’s passing in the middle.
Arsenal’s progressive passes per 90 have dropped from 55.4 in 2023/24 to 39.8 in 2024/25, a significant shift that, along with a somewhat boxy 4-4-2, has stunted Arsenal’s attempts to move the ball fluidly through the thirds.
Odegaard’s return should change all that - and not a moment too soon.
TV Info - Broadcasters
If the Gunners were to lose at Chelsea, they could drop as low as eighth and as many as 10 points off the top of the table.
It doesn’t bear thinking about.
But Chelsea have only won eight points from their five matches at the Bridge this season, putting them 11th for home form, and have conceded at least once in each of their last six on home soil.
A strong attack can get at them. Odegaard’s return could see Arsenal drastically improve.
Will Liverpool take huge stride forward in title race?
Results last weekend have suddenly put Liverpool in a brilliant position to take control of the title race.
They were the only team who started the weekend in the top six who won, leaving Arne Slot’s side two points clear at the summit and in a decent position to start pulling away.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Aston Villa have won only one of their last five Premier League matches and only once away from home since August, plus their midweek excursion to Club Brugge is likely to take its toll.
Unai Emery’s side have drawn their last two matches following a UEFA Champions League encounter.
Liverpool should be considered clear favourites at Anfield then - and if they do beat Villa, they only have to dispatch Southampton at St Mary’s after the international break before their home meeting with Man City, in which victory would take them at least five points clear of Guardiola’s side, and possibly seven or more.
Villa won’t be pushovers, of course. Emery is likely to sit his team in a deep 4-4-2, as he did at Tottenham Hotspur, and hope to draw Liverpool out before breaking behind their high line through Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins.
But Villa have lost each of their last nine Premier League away matches against sides starting the day top of the league. It isn’t Emery’s strong point.
With Arsenal struggling at the moment and City on a three-match losing streak, Liverpool’s grip on the top could tighten.
Can Van Nistelrooy sign off in style?
The 1-1 draw with Chelsea was encouraging in terms of commitment but the defensive stance wasn’t quite what Manchester United fans were looking for.
TV Info - Broadcasters
This is a club built on swashbuckling attacking football and on individual flair. That was the template for Sir Matt Busby’s successes in the 1950s and 1960s and it has been in Man Utd’s DNA ever since.
With that in mind, perhaps Ruud van Nistelrooy will loosen the reins and open up a bit for his final match as interim head coach.
Ruben Amorim will bring proactive football, that’s for sure, and it would be helpful if Van Nistelrooy could create a positive feeling around Old Trafford prior to Amorim’s arrival on Monday.
Man Utd’s total of 12 points from 10 top-flight matches is their fewest since 1986/87, incidentally the season Sir Alex Ferguson arrived, like Amorim, in early November. United’s nine goals scored is also their lowest at this stage since 1973/74.
A few more goals would be nice and Leicester City, whose reserve side conceded five against United in the EFL Cup last week, are certainly vulnerable to an all-out attack.
Who will win battle of the bottom clubs?
All matches at the bottom of the Premier League table are pressurised, but this one feels particularly poised to be a huge 90 minutes for both Wolverhampton Wanderers and Southampton.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Gary O’Neil’s men are playing better than the results suggest, but it won’t be long before heads drop.
Clearly a home match against Southampton is a huge chance to finally get three points and, looking at an inviting fixture list, begin a surge of good form.
Wolves' next seven PL fixtures
As for Southampton, Russell Martin will be delighted to face the Premier League’s bottom club one week after they finally won.
But unlike Wolves, Saints have a really tough set of fixtures after this one, facing home matches against Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs, along with trips to Brighton and Villa.
Will McNeil and Ndiaye take advantage of West Ham?
West Ham’ United's up and down form continued last weekend with a 3-0 defeat at Nottingham Forest that exposed problems with Julen Lopetegui’s back three - and not for the first time.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Lopetegui is oscillating between a back four and a back three at the moment with mixed results, a trial-and-error approach that is perhaps leading to some confusion. West Ham’s defence certainly had big holes in it against Forest and Chelsea.
Here, ahead of Forest’s opener, the gap between right wing-back Aaron Wan-Bissaka and right centre-back Konstantinos Mavropanos is far too big, as shown below, allowing Alex Moreno to get in behind and cross for Chris Wood.
Sean Dyche will target this area. Everton are in great form at the moment, collecting nine points from their last six matches and conceding only four goals, the fewest of any Premier League side across that time.
Their main orchestrator has been Dwight McNeil, moved into a new central attacking midfield position, with license to lean out to the left.
No player has played more balls into the penalty area this season than the 86 of McNeil, while only Cole Palmer and Bukayo Saka have created more chances, with 28 and 27 respectively.
Moving into the left half-space - exactly where we see that gap between Wan-Bissaka and Mavropanos - McNeil’s combinations with left winger Iliman Ndiaye, providing both recover from injuries to feature, could make the difference.
Are Newcastle ideal opponents for Forest?
Although victory over Arsenal last weekend ended Newcastle United’s five-match winless run in the Premier League, it does not necessarily have any bearing on what will happen at the City Ground.
TV Info - Broadcasters
That’s because Newcastle were able to sit back in a compressed 4-4-2 and pick Arsenal off on the break, whereas Forest will gift Eddie Howe’s side possession and invite them to push on.
If you rank Newcastle matches by possession share the findings are stark - they have won 10 points from four matches (an average of 2.5 per game) in which Newcastle have held less than 40 per cent possession.
In the four matches they have had more than 60 per cent possession, they have won two points, an average of 0.5 per game.
Newcastle’s top v bottom matches for possession
| Result | Most poss. | Result | Least poss. |
| EVE 0-0 NEW | 67% | NEW 1-0 SOU | 23% |
|---|---|---|---|
| BOU 1-1 NEW | 67% | NEW 2-1 TOT | 35% |
| FUL 1-3 NEW | 61% | NEW 1-0 ARS | 37% |
Howe wants his team to be able to use fast transitions, but those won’t be available very often against a Forest side drilled to sit back and counter-attack.
It’s reason enough to assume that despite appearances, Newcastle are perfect opponents for Nuno Espirito Santo's side - and that Forest can win four in a row for the first time since May 1995.
Will Davis versus Porro battle be key?
It isn’t exactly the headline fixture of the weekend, but there’s more riding on this than it seems.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Spurs' away form - only one win from five so far - suggests that they need to rack up points in home matches against bottom-half clubs.
After an excellent week for Ange Postecoglou it would be a major blow if Spurs were to lose momentum again by dropping points on Sunday, and yet they’ve been defeated in their last two matches following a Thursday night UEFA Europa League match, losing 3-2 to Brighton and 1-0 at Crystal Palace.
Ipswich Town, meanwhile, are in search of their first win of the campaign and might just fancy their chances against a Spurs side that do leave space down the wings.
Leif Davis has created more chances than any other defender in the Premier League this season, with 25, and this weekend his direct opponent is Pedro Porro, who has taken more shots than any defender.
How these two tussle for space, and who pins whom back, could go a long way to deciding the outcome.
Can Wilson inspire Fulham again?
Fulham’s five away matches have produced only 11 goals, the third-lowest number in the league, while Palace have produced the fewest "big chances", with 18.
TV Info - Broadcasters
Only two teams have scored fewer away goals than the five of Fulham, while Palace have netted a division-low three goals at home.
One goal might do it, then, and after Harry Wilson’s heroics on Monday night, scoring twice in stoppage time to snatch a 2-1 victory from the jaws of defeat at home to Brentford, the Wales international is the most likely candidate to score it.
Palace are desperate to put distance between themselves and the bottom three and Fulham are only three points off the top four. Any goal scored in this encounter could prove to be priceless.
Form guide favours Brentford
Brentford fans will be devastated by those late Wilson goals, which denied them going joint-seventh in the table, but all the indicators point to a revival on Saturday.
TV Info - Broadcasters
First of all Brentford are unbeaten in their last seven league meetings with Bournemouth, a record that stretches back to August 2014.
More importantly, the hosts have won four of their five league home matches this season, collecting 13 points, the joint-most along with Man City, while Bournemouth have won only once on the road.
Indeed, Bournemouth have scored only five away goals this season - and three of those came in their 3-2 comeback win at Everton. Brentford should be able to handle them.
