The Scout assesses whether managers in Fantasy Premier League should buy Bruno Fernandes (£8.6m) ahead of a tough run of opponents for Manchester United.
Fernandes is the most-bought player ahead of the Gameweek 30 deadline of 18:15 BST on Tuesday 1 April, earning over 187,000 new owners after his 17-point haul against Leicester City last time out.
That display extended the Portuguese’s most consistent run of form in 2024/25 Fantasy, with the Red Devils playmaker producing attacking returns (a goal or an assist) in four successive Gameweeks.
Indeed, Fernandes is the top-scoring player in Fantasy in that spell, totalling 46 points thanks to three goals and four assists.
What do the statistics show?
The underlying statistics offer mixed news for Fernandes’s owners in Fantasy.
The Man Utd captain has had just ONE shot in the box over the last four Gameweeks, scoring with three of his 10 shots.
While that suggests Fernandes has been somewhat fortunate, his potential for assists remains among the league’s very best.
The Man Utd star’s 13 chances created place joint-second among all players in that spell over the last four Gameweeks, three behind the leader, Chelsea’s Enzo Fernandez (£4.7m).
However, when it comes to big chances - situations where the player is expected to score - Fernandes’s numbers fail to convince.
He’s had one such opportunity and created a further two, which essentially means Fernandes has been involved in only three big chances over Gameweeks 26-29.
As many as 14 other midfielders in Fantasy have been involved in at least four big chances in that spell, again an indication that he is far from essential.
Has Fernandes's attacking potential improved?
Assessed against his previous displays in 2024/25, the statistics show the same correlation as beforehand – essentially, Fernandes is far exceeding his goal potential, while his prospects for assists are on the up.
His average of 27 minutes per shot in the last four Gameweeks is very similar to his previous average of 31 minutes across Gameweeks 1-25.
But whereas Fernandes had converted a mere 7.7 per cent of his shots beforehand, he has scored 30 per cent of his recent attempts.
His creative statistics, on the other hand, offer a lot more encouragement. Indeed, Fernandes has created a chance every 21 minutes over the last four Gameweeks, nearly twice as fast as his previous average of 37 minutes.
Fernandes's stats GW1-25 v GW26-29
| Statistic | GW1-25 | GW26-29 |
|---|---|---|
| Mins per shot | 31 | 27 |
| Goal conversion | 7.7% | 30.0% |
| Mins per chance created | 37 | 21 |
What are Man Utd’s fixtures like?
A quick glance at the upcoming schedule suggests Fernandes faces a tough task to maintain his improving output.
Man Utd face top-six sides in each of the next three Gameweeks, taking on Nottingham Forest, Manchester City and Newcastle United.
That is reflected in the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), with each of those matches scoring four.
Man Utd's next five matches
| GW | Opponent | FDR* |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Nott'm Forest (A) | 4 |
| 31 | Man City (H) | 4 |
| 32 | Newcastle (A) | 4 |
| 33 | Wolves (H) | 2 |
| 34 | Bournemouth (A) | 3 |
*1 = easiest, 5 = hardest
Furthermore, there are doubts over whether Man Utd will have a match in Blank Gameweek 34 (BGW34). If AFC Bournemouth beat Man City in the FA Cup quarter-finals then the Cherries' home encounter with Man Utd would be removed from that Gameweek.
So should managers buy Fernandes?
As shown by the underlying statistics, Fernandes is offering a minimal threat inside the opposition box and has clearly been overperforming in terms of scoring goals.
It is certainly worth saying that he is one of the most creative players in Fantasy, and his improving potential for assists suggests he is very likely to be involved in Man Utd’s goals.
But his downturn in fixtures comes at a point of the season where managers start to finalise their chip strategies to take advantage of clubs’ schedules over the run-in.
And that alone is likely to be enough for most to avoid Fernandes, focusing instead on players from Crystal Palace and Newcastle ahead of their Double Gameweek 32 (DGW32).
Crucially, unlike Man Utd, both those clubs have favourable fixtures over Gameweeks 30-31, which makes Alexander Isak (£9.3m) and Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.5m) the key targets for your forward lines.
With the strike duo costing almost £17.0m, Fernandes is likely to be the scapegoat for many managers as they seek out value in the Palace and Newcastle midfields instead.
Ismaila Sarr (£5.6m) and Jacob Murphy (£5.0m) are outstanding options in the sub-£6.0m price bracket, while Eberechi Eze (£6.7m) and Anthony Gordon (£7.4m) – who serves the last of a three-match ban in Gameweek 30 - can also help you better navigate the upcoming period in Fantasy.