Ahead of Sunday's match between Chelsea and Arsenal, Ben Bloom assesses whether Mikel Arteta's side must win to maintain their title hopes this season.
It would be incorrect to call it a full-blown crisis, but the complexion of Arsenal’s season has taken a worrying turn in recent weeks.
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From battling for top spot prior to the last international break in mid-October, Mikel Arteta’s side now prepare for the next one in fifth place, where they sit 10 points off first place after failing to beat AFC Bournemouth, Liverpool and Newcastle United in their last three Premier League matches.
The absence of captain and playmaker Martin Odegaard, who has now returned, has left a notable creative void, while defensive injuries and suspensions have seen Arteta field seven different back lines in their 10 league matches.
It all means Sunday’s short trip to Chelsea, has taken on even greater importance. But just how significant might it prove?
After finishing second in successive years, are Arsenal's hopes of ending a 21-year wait for the Premier League title in danger of disappearing long before Christmas? Not necessarily.
For all that some pundits are already writing off their title chances, history provides hope for the red half of north London.
Sides to win title after being behind by seven or more points
| Season | Team | Max pts behind leaders | Matches played | Final pts winning margin |
| 92/93 | Man Utd | 12 | 17 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 94/95 | Blackburn | 8 | 11 | 1 |
| 95/96 | Man Utd | 12 | 23 | 4 |
| 96/97 | Man Utd | 10 | 16 | 7 |
| 97/98 | Arsenal | 13 | 19 | 1 |
| 02/03 | Man Utd | 10 | 13 | 5 |
| 07/08 | Man Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| 08/09 | Man Utd | 10 | 17 | 4 |
| 10/11 | Man Utd | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 11/12 | Man City | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| 12/13 | Man Utd | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| 13/14 | Man City | 9 | 33 | 2 |
| 15/16 | Leicester | 7 | 4 | 10 |
| 16/17 | Chelsea | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 18/19 | Man City | 10 | 19 | 1 |
| 20/21 | Man City | 8 | 13 | 12 |
| 22/23 | Man City | 8 | 28 | 5 |
| 23/24 | Man City | 8 | 17 | 2 |
Of the 32 Premier League champions since the inaugural 1992/93 campaign, 13 had found themselves more than seven points behind the league leaders at some stage after 10 matches.
Indeed, it has occurred in each of the last two seasons, with Manchester City eight points behind the leaders after 28 matches in 2022/23 and 17 matches in 2023/24.
On both occasions, Pep Guardiola’s side went on to win the title.
The latest turnaround took place in 2013/14, when City overcame a nine-point deficit with just five matches remaining as Liverpool memorably let their advantage slip.
Past inspiration
Defeat at Stamford Bridge on Sunday would extend Arsenal's winless run in the Premier League to four matches, but Arteta's side would be able to look at their predecessors for inspiration.
By Boxing Day of 1997 - 19 matches into their league season - Arsene Wenger’s side were an enormous 13 points off Manchester United.
Arsenal did not lose another fixture until wrapping up the Premier League title in early May with two matches to spare.
League position is a more concerning consideration. Arsenal's defeat at St James’ Park last week combined with Brighton & Hove Albion's win over Man City on Saturday have pushed them down to sixth.
Only four teams have recovered from sitting fifth or lower after 10 Premier League matches to then win the title - Man Utd (1996/97), Man City (2013/14), Leicester City (2015/16) and Man City again in 2020/21.
Recent history suggests Arteta’s side are already skating close to the point of no return with their dropped points tally.
Over the past seven seasons - a period dominated by Man City - the Premier League champions have missed out on an average of 20 points.
Arsenal have dropped 12 points in their opening 10 matches in 2024/25, having surrendered exactly half that number by this time last year.
“After eight, nine or 10 games last year we didn’t [talk about points] and we won’t talk about it now,” insisted Arteta after last week’s Newcastle loss. “It’s about how you react to that.”
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
16 | +21 | 39 |
| 2 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
17 | +18 | 35 |
| 3 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
17 | +18 | 33 |
| 4 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
17 | +4 | 31 |
| 5 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
17 | +6 | 28 |
After Man City’s 32-match unbeaten league run was ended by AFC Bournemouth last week, Guardiola suggested the physical demands on players, caused by an increased number of fixtures across different competitions, means standards will drop and that it could require fewer points to win the Premier League.
Such a scenario might aid Arsenal’s cause, given their early-season struggles.
Participants in the UEFA Champions League will play eight, rather than six, group-stage ties this season, plus two additional matches for any team in the playoffs to reach the round of 16.
“It’s the reality we are living now,” said Guardiola, whose side will also contest an expanded 32-team FIFA Club World Cup next summer.
However, while it remains early days, Liverpool are firmly on track for 90+ points this Premier League season - only twice has a team achieved that haul and not won the title.
Traditional fast-finishers City are also having one of their best starts under Guardiola despite injuries and the loss at Brighton. So perhaps his prediction over a reduced points tally winning the title will not play out.
Either way, Arsenal’s hopes will be significantly boosted by victory against Chelsea.
Asked outright on Friday whether he deemed it a must-win match, Arteta replied: “Especially because we have missed certain points in the last few weeks.
“The margins are becoming smaller and smaller. That doesn’t mean the margin doesn’t exist anymore, but more perfection is going to be demanded in the future.
“For sure, we want to win, we have to prepare and we have to prepare to win it, and that’s the only thing that is in our heads.”
Arsenal may be aided by the potential absence of Chelsea star man Cole Palmer, who was on the receiving end of a heavy challenge from Man Utd's Lisandro Martinez last weekend.
Palmer tops the Premier League rankings for combined goals and assists since the start of the 2023/24 season and is Chelsea’s leading player for shots, chances created, through-balls and dribbles completed during that period.
“He’s getting better,” Chelsea head coach Enzo Maresca said of Palmer after his side’s 8-0 UEFA Conference League win over Noah on Thursday night.
“Hopefully we can have him for the session at least on Saturday and then we can take a decision.”
Chelsea head into the match level on points with Arsenal, with both sides knowing how important three points would be to their title aspirations. But failure to get them would not prove devastating - yet.
