Who are the best forwards to own in FPL?

The Scout looks at the form, fixtures and underlying data to determine the best options for managers’ forward lines in Fantasy Premier League.

Who has the best form in Fantasy?

It's fair to say that Erling Haaland’s (£15.2m) role as the go-to premium pick for managers this season has diminished in recent weeks.

The Manchester City star has scored just twice in the last six Gameweeks to collect 19 points – that less than HALF the 40 of Wolverhampton Wanderers’ Matheus Cunha (£6.8m).

Along with Cunha, AFC Bournemouth’s Evanilson (£5.9m), Nottingham Forest star Chris Wood (£6.6m), Ipswich Town’s Liam Delap (£5.6m) have each produced at least DOUBLE Haaland’s tally. 

That has contributed to Haaland being the most-sold forward ahead of Saturday's 11:00 GMT deadline, with over 254,000 managers parting company with the Norwegian.

Delap has been involved in six goals in that spell, more than any other forward in Fantasy. He matched Wood’s total of five goals and also supplied an assist.  

Newcastle United’s Alexander Isak (£8.5m) and Brentford’s Yoane Wissa (£6.1m) are also among the standout players in the table below.

Isak's average of 7.0 points per match is better than any of his rivals from Gameweek 6 onwards. He has 28 points in his four outings, scoring in each of the last three Gameweeks. 

Since returning to the Bees’ first XI in Gameweek 9, Wissa has outscored his highly-owned midfield team-mate Bryan Mbeumo (£7.9m) by 25 points to 23.

Top-scoring forwards GW6-11

Who is most likely to score a goal?

The underlying statistics clearly show that Haaland – despite his recent failings – has had the greatest goal threat of any forward.

His 29 shots, 25 shots in the box and nine big chances - or situations in which the player is expected to score - all place top here. Essentially, the Norwegian’s poor finishing has proved his undoing, with Haaland scoring a mere 6.7 per cent of his shots. 

Fulham’s Raul Jimenez (£5.8m) has been similarly culpable – the Mexican ranks second only to Haaland for both shots and shots in the box, with two goals from 20 shots giving him a lowly 10 per cent conversion rate.

There’s little to separate a host of other picks for both shots in the box and big chances, with Brighton & Hove Albion’s Danny Welbeck (£5.9m) Arsenal forward Kai Havertz (£8.0m), Tottenham Hotspur’s Dominic Solanke (£7.7m), Isak, Aston Villa star Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) and Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson (£7.9m) all near-identical. 

Wolves’ Cunha is something of an anomaly, though – although his 17 shots sits fourth in the assessment, none of those efforts were big chances.

Elsewhere, the numbers also indicate that Delap, Evanilson, Wood and Wissa will struggle to maintain their lofty output over the course of a campaign. 

Delap, Evanilson and Wood converted 40-50 per cent of their shots in this spell, while Wissa’s four goals have come from only six shots, an unsustainable 66.7 goal conversion rate. 

Goal threat GW6-11

Who is most likely to get an assist?

Cunha’s huge potential for assists is underlined by the statistics here. His 12 key passes and seven big chances created both rank top in his position.

Fulham’s Jimenez, meanwhile, has been the top all-round performer. He had four big chances of his own and created a further five, which gives him a combined total of nine big-chance involvements – joint-top with Haaland among forwards over the last six Gameweeks.

Isak and West Ham United’s Michail Antonio (£5.4m) also ran the Man City star close for this statistic, with eight big-chance involvements each. 

Creativity stats GW6-11

Who has the best fixtures?

Using the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR) in conjunction with the player data can help refine your targets.

By focussing on both four and six Gameweek periods, managers can also get a better idea of the forwards who are favoured more by either the short-term or mid-term schedules.

In the case of Ipswich’s Delap, as well as Brighton pair Welbeck and the fit-again Joao Pedro (£5.4m), along with Wolves duo Cunha and Jorgen Strand Larsen (£5.6m), the schedule looks very kind for many Gameweeks to come.

Both Ipswich and Wolves’ next four matches score a mere nine in total in the FDR, with three of their matches scoring only two. 

Indeed, as many as FIVE of Wolves’ next six matches score two in the FDR, which includes back-to-back encounters with promoted pair Ipswich and Leicester City in Gameweeks 16-17.

The FDR also indicates that Villa’s Watkins, Chelsea’s Jackson and Newcastle’s Isak can deliver big hauls across their upcoming runs of opponents.

All three clubs have four matches in the next six Gameweeks which score just two.

By contrast, both Haaland and Wood – who are the most-popular forwards in Fantasy, found in 63 and 24 per cent of squads respectively – have two of the toughest mid-term schedules.

Only one of Man City and Forest’s next six matches score two in the FDR, the joint-lowest total of any clubs. Along with Spurs' Solanke, their FDR totals of 21 in the next six Gameweeks are the worst on offer.  

Sides' schedules, next four/six Gameweeks

So, who are the best forwards to own?

The statistics only serve to highlight Haaland’s huge goal threat and if money is no object, then he is easily the best pick for your forward lines.

But his huge price tag – combined with the displays of premium midfielders – is becoming a significant factor for more managers as the season unfolds.

If you’re keen to own Mohamed Salah (£12.9m), Cole Palmer (£10.9m) and Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) in midfield, for example, then Haaland has to be the fall guy, simply due to his cost.

Cunha’s all-round potential and great schedule makes him one of the strongest options up front for many Gameweeks to come. Crucially, unlike Ipswich’s Delap ahead of his own fine run, the Brazilian’s goal conversion rate looks sustainable, while his creativity helps him hoover up the bonus points. Strand Larsen’s cost of just £5.6m also means he shouldn’t be overlooked as a cheaper alternative from Wolves.

Brighton’s schedule also looks encouraging for Welbeck and Joao Pedro, although with the latter only just back from injury, there’s more chance his minutes could be managed. 

Meanwhile, the upcoming schedules for Watkins, Jackson and Isak highlight why any No Haaland squad should still have a premium spot up front, as it allows you to take advantage of favourable fixtures.

Watkins, for example, has three home matches over the next four Gameweeks, against Crystal Palace, Brentford and Southampton. Jackson, meanwhile, faces two promoted clubs across the next three Gameweeks, visiting both Leicester City and Saints. 

Indeed, if you have no issues to deal with elsewhere in your squad, you could move from Jackson (Gameweeks 12-14) to Watkins (Gameweek 15) to Isak (Gameweeks 16-17) and face a promoted club in five of those six Gameweeks.