Fantasy Premier League

Capitalise on value among FPL forwards with 3-4-3 formation

By The Scout 26 Nov 2024
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The Scout assesses the statistics and explains why managers in Fantasy Premier League should consider using a 3-4-3 formation this season.

It’s fair to say that managers in Fantasy are being spoiled for choice when it comes to assembling their frontlines this season.

As many as SIX of the 12 top-scoring players in the game are listed as forwards, with Manchester City’s Erling Haaland (£15.1m) the leading player in this position. The Norwegian has scored 12 goals to sit third in the overall standings on 84 points.

Wolverhampton Wanderers star Matheus Cunha (£6.9m) and Chelsea's Nicolas Jackson (£7.9m) have been Haaland's nearest rivals. Both have scored seven goals while also supplying three and four assists respectively.

Meanwhile, Nottingham Forest's Chris Wood (£6.6m), Brighton & Hove Albion's Danny Welbeck (£6.0m) and Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) have each been involved in eight goals and are averaging in excess of 5.0 points per match (ppm). 

Top-scoring players GW 1-12
Player Position G A Pts
Salah (LIV) MID 10 6 120
Palmer (CHE) MID 7 5 86
Haaland (MCI) FWD 12 0 84
Saka (ARS) MID 4 8 80
Mbeumo (BRE) MID 8 1 79
Cunha (WOL) FWD 7 3 75
Jackson (CHE) FWD 7 4 72
Wood (NFO) FWD 8 0 69
Maddison (TOT) MID 5 4 68
Welbeck (BHA) FWD 6 2 66
Diaz (LIV) MID 5 2 65
Watkins (AVL) FWD 6 2 62

Crucially, their early success is in sharp contrast to the previous campaign.

Indeed, Watkins and Haaland were the only forwards among the 12 top-scoring players in 2023/24 Fantasy, which helps to explain why a 3-5-2 was the most popular formation last time around. 

Forwards lead the way for best value

In addition, forwards are also offering the best value in Fantasy, with a host of kindly-priced assets thriving early on. 

Brighton's Welbeck is the No 1 outfield player for value, in terms of points per million (ppm) returned. He has totalled 66 points, thanks to his six goals and two assists. At a price of only £6.0m, this means he has returned 11.0ppm spent. 

Wolves' Cunha and Nott'm Forest's Wood also rank among the top 10 midfielders or forwards for value, returning 10.9ppm and 10.5ppm spent respectively.

Meanwhile, Yoane Wissa's (£6.1m) place in the assessment is all the more impressive considering he has missed three of Brentford's matches through injury. His average of 6.2 points per match is identical to Cunha, who is the second top-scoring forward on 75 points. 

Top midfielders and forwards for value
Player Position Pts Price Value
Welbeck (BHA) FWD 66 £6.0m 11.0
Cunha (WOL) FWD 75 £6.9m 10.9
Wood (NFO) FWD 69 £6.6m 10.5
Mbeumo (BRE) MID 79 £7.9m 10.0
McNeil (EVE) MID 54 £5.6m 9.6
Iwobi (FUL) MID 54 £5.6m 9.6
Delap (IPS) FWD 53 £5.6m 9.5
Smith Rowe (FUL) MID 55 £5.8m 9.5
Salah (LIV) MID 120 £13.1m 9.2
Wissa (BRE) FWD 56 £6.1m 9.2

Mohamed Salah's outstanding start to the season is further highlighted in the table above. Despite his huge cost of £13.1m, the Liverpool star is still among the 10 best value midfielders or forwards, totalling 120 points and returning 9.2ppm spent.

His premium rival Haaland, on the other hand, has offered far worse value due to his £15.1m price tag. The Norwegian has returned 5.6ppm spent, the same as Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.2m) and Southampton's Cameron Archer (£5.0m).

Who has produced the most points per match?

Premium midfielders dominate the points per match (ppm) assessment, with Salah, Bukayo Saka (£10.2m) and Cole Palmer (£10.9m) occupying the top three spots. 

Salah is averaging an incredible 10.0ppm in the first 12 Gameweeks, while Saka and Palmer are the only other players to produce over seven points per appearance, with 7.3ppm and 7.2ppm respectively.

While that trio have a clear advantage over other midfielders, the same cannot be said for Haaland when comparing him with his fellow forwards.

Brighton's fit-again Joao Pedro (£5.6m) is a case in point. He has amassed 42 points over six appearances, which equates to 7.0ppm - joint-top with Haaland among forwards. Yet Pedro costs nearly £10.0m less than the Man City star.

Similarly, Wissa, Cunha and Jackson also feature among the nine players who have averaged at least 6.0ppm this season. The trio offer outstanding value and are why more managers are getting rid of Haaland and turning to them instead. 

Best outfield players for points per match
Player Position Pts Pts per match
Salah (LIV) MID 120 10.0
Saka (ARS) MID 80 7.3
Palmer (CHE) MID 86 7.2
Haaland (MCI) FWD 84 7.0
Pedro (BHA) FWD 42 7.0
Mbeumo (BRE) MID 79 6.6
Wissa (BRE) FWD 56 6.2
Cunha (WOL) FWD 75 6.2
Jackson (CHE) FWD 72 6.0

In terms of both quantity and quality, then, the wealth of options among forwards shows why a 3-4-3 formation can be the most productive in 2024/25 Fantasy.

Crucially, by overlooking Haaland and taking advantage of the form of his fellow forwards, managers can free up the budget to invest heavily in a four-man midfield instead, with Salah, Saka and Palmer the top priorities. 

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