Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Fulham find inspiration as they try to tame Liverpool
- Is Man Utd's only derby option to sit deep?
- In-form Vardy and Leicester plot more Newcastle misery
- Chelsea try to finally get the better of Brentford
- Saints could suffer from Spurs' aggressive high press
- Villa back to their best in time for Nottingham Forest test
- Will flagging Brighton be in for Palace punishment?
- Huge six-pointer between Wolves and Ipswich
- Can AFC Bournemouth add to their European belief?
- Could Arsenal v Everton be settled by set-pieces?
Will Fulham follow Girona and put Liverpool under pressure?
This is a deceptively difficult match for Liverpool, made worse by a performance at Girona on Tuesday night that left Arne Slot "far from pleased".
He was critical of his side's pressing, which allowed Liverpool's UEFA Champions League opponents to play their way through an open midfield and counter-attack repeatedly. That is not a good sign ahead of Fulham's visit to Anfield.
Adama Traore-led counter-attacks were a huge problem for a low-intensity Manchester City back in October, and Marco Silva’s side proved very hard to break down in last weekend's 1-1 draw with Arsenal.
Fulham formed a flat back five during sustained periods of Gunners possession, giving them an extra defender so that Antonee Robinson could follow Bukayo Saka and keep him quiet.
Silva will presumably try something similar against Mohamed Salah.
If the Fulham boss can combine the defensive aspects of the draw with Arsenal and the counter-attacking threat shown at Man City, then the Cottagers could pick up where Girona left off.
There’s a lurking concern that Liverpool, a little off-form in their 3-3 draw with Newcastle United last Wednesday, are beginning to slow down.
Slot could do with a high-energy performance to fend off that danger.
Can Man Utd find a way through Guardiola’s high line?
The Manchester derby is always a highlight in the Premier League calendar but this one is particularly loaded with narrative tension.
Man City’s 2-2 draw at Crystal Palace and subsequent 2-0 defeat at Juventus have left them mired in a mini-crisis and in desperate need of a statement win to lift their spirits.
Meanwhile, Ruben Amorim could do with something to get his tenure up and running; he has won only four points so far, fewer than any other Man Utd manager after four Premier League matches - including caretakers and interims.
His dramatic tactical changes have led to some hesitant performances, which is why, counter-intuitively, a trip to the Etihad Stadium could be just what he needs.
United will have to sit deep and counter-attack, meaning the players’ roles will be simplified and the muscle memory of the Erik ten Hag era will be relied upon.
In the FA Cup final last season, United repeatedly hit City on the break with long balls over the top, leading to both of their first-half goals.
Brighton & Hove Albion and Fulham have recently used a similar method to hurt Pep Guardiola’s side, but more significantly, Amorim’s Sporting beat Man City 4-1 in the UEFA Champions League only last month.
Sporting repeatedly scored on the counter-attack, playing against type by ceding possession and drawing City onto them.
Amorim needs to follow that blueprint again this weekend.
Will Leicester continue a trend to add to Newcastle's issues?
A home match against a relegation candidate surely presents Newcastle, winless in four Premier League outings, with an opportunity to get back on track.
But Eddie Howe’s side have consistently struggled against clubs of Leicester City’s stature and league position.
Excluding the opening weekend, Newcastle have won only one of their seven Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the bottom half of the table (D3 L3), averaging 0.86 points-per-game.
The Magpies seem to struggle when facing a low block and quick counter-attacks, which will give confidence to Leicester's explosive striker Jamie Vardy, who has been involved in seven goals in his last seven Premier League appearances, producing four goals and three assists.
Vardy inspires fightback v Brighton
Scenes! 🥳 pic.twitter.com/64IYZsc5JM
— Leicester City (@LCFC) December 8, 2024
Vardy will expect chances against a defence that has conceded seven goals in the last two matches, but there is a major caveat to this preview.
We have no idea yet how Ruud van Nistelrooy will deal with away games because, implausibly, all six of his matches managing Leicester and Man Utd this season have been at home.
Will in-form Chelsea finally end Brentford hoodoo?
Enzo Maresca’s side have won their last four Premier League matches, netting a total of 14 goals in the process.
Should Chelsea score three or more for the fourth consecutive match in the competition, they will emulate the club's top-flight run under Ted Drake in November/December 1954 (4-1, 4-3, 4-0, 3-1) when they went on to win the league title.
In theory, Brentford are the ideal opponent to achieve this against.
Thomas Frank’s side have picked up only one point on their travels this season and have conceded an average of two goals per away match.
But Brentford are Chelsea’s bogey team and, incredibly, remain undefeated in five matches against their West London neighbours, winning each of the last three at Stamford Bridge.
Indeed, Chelsea’s 2-2 draw at the Gtech Community Stadium in March, when Axel Disasi rescued a late point, was the first time the Blues had even scored a goal against the Bees in four matches.
Fans might be nervous, then, although it’s hard to believe that this fearless young Chelsea team, defined by the languid Cole Palmer, would let thoughts of a hoodoo get to them.
Will Spurs' furious high press bring out the worst in Saints?
There is a stark tactical mismatch set to take place at St Mary’s Stadium on Sunday evening.
As is well documented, Southampton’s desire to pass the ball out from the back in all circumstances means they are frequently caught out; they have made 26 errors leading to a shot or goal, at least 10 more than any other club and more than any team made in the whole of last season.
Similarly well-documented is Tottenham Hotspur’s incessant high press, employed as dogmatically as Southampton’s own tactical hallmark.
Ange Postecoglou’s side top the Premier League charts for high turnovers (eight), possessions won in the final third (99), and passes per defensive action (PPDA) with 8.6.
Saints could certainly get chances against a Spurs defence that have conceded nine goals in their last six league games, but the energy in Postecoglou’s pressing seems highly likely to force another mistake at the back - and another soft concession by the hosts.
Forest’s counter-attacking can stump Villa
Nottingham Forest have won three of their last four home Premier League matches and kept a clean sheet in each of those victories.
They will not fear Aston Villa, even if Unai Emery’s side are resurgent after three consecutive wins in all competitions, including a superb display at RB Leipzig on Tuesday.
Villa were back to their best, in possession at least, although Leipzig looked dangerous on the break and capitalised on two errors by goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.
That gives further confidence to Forest. They will look to frustrate Villa by refusing to be baited into pressing onto them (Forest average 40 per cent possession, the lowest share in the division), and then spinning behind Villa’s high line.
Villa lost the corresponding fixture 2-0 last season in similar circumstances, and were particularly vulnerable to quick breaks in their 2-2 draws with Ipswich Town and Palace.
To make matters worse, Ollie Watkins is now an injury doubt, meaning Villa may have to rely upon an on-the-shoulder striker in Jhon Duran as they try to break down a stubborn defensive shell.
Whatever the final score, it will be a frustrating and awkward 90 minutes for Villa.
Can stubborn Palace capitalise on Brighton’s waning form?
One of the biggest games of the season for these two clubs has come at a good time for Palace, who have solidified over the last few weeks just as their rivals have begun to wilt.
The Eagles have not lost in four Premier League matches, are unbeaten in three away, and in all competitions have only lost one of their last eight. Oliver Glasner has found stability after a difficult period, with the addition of Trevoh Chalobah into his back three being the standout reason for their improvement.
In sharp contrast, Brighton & Hove Albion have only won two of their last eight matches in all competitions and have failed to win any of their last three in the Premier League, all against sides in the bottom half of the table.
That follows a pattern. Fabian Hurzeler’s side struggle when faced with opponents happy to sit deep and deny space - they have won one of their nine Premier League matches in which they have held more than 50 per cent possession, and five of the six in which they have held less than 50 per cent.
Brighton's PL possession record 24/25
| Brighton possession | Record | Points per game |
| 50% or more | W1 D5 L3 | 0.89 |
|---|---|---|
| 49% or less | W5 D1 L0 | 2.67 |
Palace will no doubt be happy for Brighton to hold the majority of possession and wait for chances to break, as they did in the impressive 2-2 draw with Man City last weekend.
Both the form guide and the tactical battle point in Palace’s favour.
Will McKenna use set-pieces to beat Wolves?
Wolverhampton Wanderers have conceded 15 goals from non-penalty set-pieces this season, which is not only the most in the division, but more than in all but two of their previous Premier League campaigns.
Only in 2003/04 (20) and 2011/12 (18) did Wolves concede more - and they were relegated in both seasons.
Ipswich have scored just two goals from set-pieces - only Fulham with zero have scored fewer - but Kieran McKenna’s side do create a lot of chances from corners and free-kicks.
They top the charts for their percentage of total chances coming from set-pieces, with 39.3 per cent, suggesting that Ipswich are reliant on dead balls even if they haven’t converted many yet.
Wolves’ difficulties tell us Ipswich's luck could change on Saturday. They certainly need it to.
The Tractor Boys' record this season of one win, six draws, and eight defeats is exactly the same record they had after 15 matches in their last Premier League season (2001/02), when they went on to finish 18th.
Can AFC Bournemouth move into European contention?
These are the crucial busy weeks when campaign arcs are formed - when good starts turn into good seasons - and AFC Bournemouth are on the precipice of something special.
Andoni Iraola’s side have won three consecutive Premier League matches to surge up the table, and if they can make it four in a row on Saturday they could move as high as fourth place.
The Cherries are fast becoming the league’s most entertaining team to watch this season. Their Expected Goals (xG) of 30.9 is second only to Chelsea's 32.6, and their fast-transition football is providing plenty of end-to-end contests.
The visit of West Ham United is the first of three home matches during the festive period that are against clubs currently in the bottom half, giving Bournemouth the chance to keep their momentum going and announce themselves as genuine contenders for a place in Europe.
Will set-pieces prove defining at both ends?
Arsenal have won 81 per cent of their home Premier League matches in 2024 (P16 W13 D2 L1) while Everton have collected just five points from seven on the road this season, so Mikel Arteta’s side will be confident.
But the 1-1 draw at Fulham last weekend has raised concerns over Arsenal’s reliance on corners, and indeed set-pieces - at both ends - could be the difference again on Saturday.
Since the beginning of last season, Arsenal have scored more goals via corners than any other side (23), while eight of Everton’s 14 Premier League goals this season, or 57 per cent, have been scored from set-pieces, the highest percentage by any team in a single season since West Brom in 2014/15 (61 per cent).
Both teams are good at attacking set-pieces, then, and neither is particularly strong at defending them.
Set-pieces have led to five of the 15 goals Arsenal have conceded this season (33 per cent) and four of the 21 goals Everton have let in (19 per cent).
