Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Can Aston Villa repeat last season win over Man City?
- Will Liverpool capitalise on Spurs' open approach?
- Jesus to punish Crystal Palace again?
- Will Man Utd build on derby success?
- Can Pereira give Wolves new-manager bounce?
- Top spot at Christmas in sight for Chelsea
- What will Rusk do with Saints' risky approach?
- Ipswich to earn first home victory?
- Will West Ham extend Brighton's winless run?
- Nottingham Forest to stop Brentford's home streak?
Will Emery repeat last season’s tactical victory?
Aston Villa dominated this exact fixture last season despite only winning 1-0 at Villa Park.
Erling Haaland's 11th-minute attempt on goal was Manchester City’s final one of the match, while City faced 22 shots, the joint-most ever against a Pep Guardiola team in a game within Europe’s top-five leagues.
In retrospect - on an evening when Rodri's absence was keenly felt - it foreshadowed what was to come.
Unai Emery won the tactical battle by pressing hard onto a passive Rodri-less midfield and, in possession, playing a narrow 4-2-2-2 that had John McGinn and Leon Bailey pop up in attacking midfield - where there was no Rodri.
In this typical example, Man City’s haphazard press left gaps for Villa’s wide midfielders to shuffle infield and get on the ball.
The champions are even more vulnerable now, of course, with new incredible statistics emerging each week.
They’ve lost five of their last seven Premier League matches (winning once and drawing the other), as many as they had in their previous 67 combined (W51 D11), and eight of their last 11 matches in all competitions (W1 D2), as many as they had in their previous 106 (W78 D20).
Villa aren’t in anything like the form of November 2023, when they were pushing for top spot, but they have won back-to-back matches at home, and indeed are unbeaten in seven league matches at Villa Park.
Emery and Villa should be able to repeat the tactical trick, then. Guardiola’s midfield could once again crumble.
Can Liverpool capitalise on a wide-open game?
Two battling draws in a row is far from a disaster for Liverpool.
If they go three Premier League matches without a victory, however, confidence could begin to wobble over Christmas, particularly if Chelsea win earlier in the day to knock them off top spot.
It would certainly be a big story if Liverpool were not top on Christmas Day given how far ahead they were just a few weeks ago. Arne Slot will know, then, that this is a must-win encounter.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
15 | +18 | 36 |
| 2 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
16 | +18 | 34 |
| 3 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
16 | +14 | 30 |
| 4 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
16 | +2 | 28 |
| 5 |
Man City
MCI
|
16 | +5 | 27 |
Fortunately for Liverpool - who were slowed down considerably by Fulham’s dogged approach - Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham Hotspur side consistently allow big matches to become stretched, as we saw in Chelsea’s wild 4-3 win at Spurs earlier this month.
Assuming it’s an end-to-end encounter, Liverpool should be favourites to win.
Destiny Udogie’s aggressive forward runs leave plenty of space to attack down Spurs’ left flank, meaning that in transitional moments Mohamed Salah can be set away down that side.
Salah has been involved in 22 of Liverpool’s 31 Premier League goals this season, or 71 per cent, by far the highest share of any Premier League player.
But Salah is by no means the only Liverpool attacker who comes to life when there’s space to run into, and with the Spurs defence still ravaged by injury, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they extend their winless Premier League home run to four.
Will Jesus see off Palace again?
It’s a sign of Arsenal’s decline in form since their 2023/24 peak that almost every Premier League fixture looks like a thorny one.
Mikel Arteta’s side have won just half of their 16 Premier League matches and have consistently struggled to get over the line against stubborn opponents, dropping points against teams including Brighton & Hove Albion, AFC Bournemouth and Fulham.
Crystal Palace, on a run of one defeat in eight (W3 D4), fall into that category - or at least it looked that way when a full-strength Palace side took the lead at Emirates Stadium in the EFL Cup on Wednesday.
But what followed changes the story.
To put the mid-tier teams to bed, Arsenal need a striker. That’s what the critics have been saying for a while now. What often gets overlooked is that a title-winning No 9 is already in their ranks.
Gabriel Jesus’s hat-trick against Palace in midweek was phenomenal: three ruthless finishes that evoked the best days of Thierry Henry or Robin van Persie.
He has surely earned a start on Saturday and the chance to prove to Arteta - and the Arsenal supporters - that he is the centre-forward they’ve been looking for.
Was Etihad victory just a one-off - or just the start?
In such a tight Premier League table, things change very quickly.
Unbelievably, Manchester United are only six points behind Nottingham Forest in fourth, and despite being seven places behind this weekend’s opponents, sixth-placed AFC Bournemouth, Ruben Amorim’s side can move above them in the table with a win on Sunday.
On that basis, if United’s 2-1 win at Man City last weekend triggers an upturn in form they could be in the running for a UEFA Champions League spot by January.
Or, fail to beat the Cherries and Man Utd will be in the bottom half of the table at Christmas for the first time since 1989/90.
The margins are remarkably fine, but over these next two weeks - when four Premier League rounds are played - the table should finally settle into a pattern. Now is the time to kick on.
Bournemouth’s rapid transitions make them particularly dangerous against a still-learning United back three, but at least in Amad United have a player in sensational form.
Amad’s battle with Milos Kerkez, arguably the standout left-back in the Premier League this season, is one to watch, because if Amad doesn’t come out on top, Man Utd might continue to languish in the wrong half of the league - and the optimism gained from the City win will dissipate.
Can Pereira get off to a winning start?
Vitor Pereira has signed an 18-month contract to become the new Wolverhampton Wanderers head coach and will take charge of his first Premier League match on Sunday.
It’s an appointment with many unknowns. Pereira has had mixed success, from titles at FC Porto to relegation at 1860 Munich, and is known for an intense but combative style of management.
As for Wolves, their true level is a mystery. Nine points from 16 matches leaves them in a perilous position, yet they have both dramatically over-scored against their Expected Goals (xG) (24 goals from 16.8 xG) and dramatically over-conceded against their opponents’ xG (40 goals from 27.6 xG).
If that wasn’t difficult enough to decipher, Pereira has taken very different tactical approaches in previous jobs, sometimes deploying counter-attacking football and sometimes going for a possession-based system.
We will find out plenty on Sunday, when they visit Leicester City in a crucial six-pointer that could be full of goals.
The Foxes have been defensively open since Ruud van Nistelrooy’s arrival, conceding an xG of 8.43 in three Premier League matches, close to three per match.
If Wolves get that new-manager bounce - if Matheus Cunha and Goncalo Guedes, feel unshackled by the new regime - then Leicester could be in trouble.
Can Chelsea break Everton and sit top at Christmas?
Chelsea are guaranteed to be in the top two on Christmas Day, but with victory they will heap pressure on Liverpool’s encounter at Spurs. That could prove important.
Chelsea have won the Premier League title on all five occasions they’ve been top on Christmas Day (2004/05, 2005/06, 2009/10, 2014/15 and 2016/17) and have never won the league title when second on Christmas Day (1998/99, 2002/03, 2006/07, 2008/09).
That might just be a statistical quirk, but nevertheless to sit on top of the pile on 25 December could have an important psychological effect on a young team that may not yet believe they can go all the way.
This time last year, Villa passed up the chance to be top at Christmas by drawing 1-1 against a stubborn Sheffield United side, and they never really recovered from it.
It could happen to Chelsea on Sunday. Everton have won five of their last six Premier League home meetings against the Blues, and are unbeaten in five matches at Goodison Park, keeping three clean sheets in the process.
Piercing Sean Dyche's defence won’t be easy. But just a single goal could be enough to set Chelsea on a path to the title.
What approach will Rusk take?
Southampton's caretaker manager Simon Rusk was encouraged by his side’s performance in a 2-1 defeat at home to Liverpool in the EFL Cup, but we cannot read too much into a tie against the league leaders.
He opted for a defensive 5-4-1 formation with the aim to stay in the match for as long as possible, but that doesn’t mean Rusk – whose only previous managerial experience was a brief stint at Stockport County in 2021 – will be so conservative at Fulham.
The big question is whether Rusk will attempt to tighten up the defence, drop the line deeper, and stop playing out from the back at every opportunity.
Certainly that’s what Saints fans would like to see; a more pragmatic tactical set-up, without ditching the progressive football altogether.
Can Ipswich build on Wolves win?
Newcastle United have won just three of their last 12 Premier League matches. They’ve picked up nine points from eight away fixtures this season, and not won on the road since 10 November.
This is an opportunity, albeit a small one, for Ipswich Town, who might not look forward to welcoming a side that just hit four past Leicester, but must jump on this chance.
On away form only, Newcastle are the lowest ranking team Ipswich face at Portman Road – where they are yet to win in the Premier League this season – until Southampton visit on 1 February.
It is by far their most winnable home match until then, with Chelsea, Brighton and Man City the three up next.
Taylor's late winner at Wolves
🍿#WOLIPS pic.twitter.com/WjWSM1OMbS
— IPSWICH TOWN (@IpswichTown) December 14, 2024
Only two teams have failed to win any of their first eight home matches in a Premier League campaign and managed to avoid relegation: Middlesbrough in 2000/01 (first eight) and Brighton in 2020/21 (first 10).
Ipswich have to get a victory at Portman Road soon.
Will West Ham continue Brighton’s winless run?
Slowly but surely, West Ham United are finding their feet under Julen Lopetegui.
Seven points from their last five matches is a strong return, especially considering one of their two defeats in that time was against Arsenal, and better still the Hammers have won 10 points from their last five encounters at the London Stadium.
Like Man Utd, the strangeness of this season’s table means West Ham really aren’t far off where they might expect to be: six points off sixth leaves plenty to play for, should Lopetegui’s ideas stick.
They’ll need a bit of luck for that to happen. Luck like facing Brighton at just the right time.
Fabian Hurzeler’s side are four matches without a win, on each occasion falling short against a bottom-half club.
Nottingham Forest to end Brentford’s home run?
Brentford have collected 22 points from a possible 24 at the Gtech Community Stadium this season, a run that includes five wins in a row with at least three goals netted in each one.
Eventually, that unbeaten sequence has to come to an end - and perhaps it’s this weekend, when the team with the third-best away record in the division visit.
The only away matches Forest have lost are at Arsenal and Man City, partly because Nuno Espirito Santo’s deep-lying, counter-attacking football is particularly suited to being on the road.
The home side is generally expected to take the impetus, playing right into Forest’s hands.
If that happens on Saturday, Forest will get their ninth win of the season, drawing level with their entire total for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons.
More significantly, they will go above Arsenal into third, temporarily at least.
