As football writer Alex Keble explains, every Premier League club has something to play for in the exciting months ahead.
At just past the halfway point in the 2024/25 Premier League season, a brief pause for the FA Cup third round gives us the chance to take stock of a campaign that’s shaping up to be one of the most competitive in years.
The gap between teams in the top half of the table has widened slightly over the festive period but there are still as many as 14 clubs with at least an outside shot at qualifying for Europe.
Here, we look at what we learned in the first half of the season.
Liverpool have the perfect blend of Klopp and Slot football
For a time, Liverpool threatened to run away with the 2024/25 title, and although a slight decline - three wins in their last six - has brought other teams back into the mix, Arne Slot’s side remain firm favourites.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
19 | +28 | 46 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
20 | +21 | 40 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
20 | +10 | 40 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
20 | +15 | 36 |
Pundits are still scrambling to work out Slot’s secret, perhaps because the method is so unfashionable in modern football: flexibility, humility, and a feather-light touch are uncommon characteristics in a world of tactical idealists.
Slot has imposed calm control at Liverpool, who now regularly slow the game down or rest in possession. It is a new approach embodied best by Ryan Gravenberch, a revelation in the No 6 position under his fellow Dutchman.
Slot’s changes are subtle, tempering Jurgen Klopp’s tactical system while sticking closely to those principles, allowing the Liverpool players to rely upon the rhythms and relationships built over the preceding six years.
However, six points dropped in their last six league matches, coupled with the 1-0 defeat at Tottenham Hotspur in the EFL Cup on Wednesday, adds weight to the theory Liverpool have been fortunate to consistently face teams at their lowest ebb.
They still have to travel to top-half clubs Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Manchester City, Aston Villa, Fulham, Chelsea and Brighton & Hove Albion, as well as the team with the second-best home record this season, Brentford.
Liverpool's next four PL fixtures
Arsenal and Chelsea can still make a three-horse race
Although Liverpool still have a game in hand - at Everton, where they were defeated last season - their nearest rivals Arsenal are currently only six points behind them.
Six points is nothing, not when Slot is new to English football, and not when Liverpool haven’t won a title in front of their own fans for over 30 years.
What’s more, Arsenal are on 40 points from 20 matches, exactly the same number as they had at this stage last season, when they finished on 89 points, plus Chelsea are looking to be active again in the January transfer window.
Enzo Maresca has repeatedly said his young side are not in the title race, yet they will be let back in if Liverpool wobble slightly with a couple of defeats in a row - at Forest and at Brentford next week, perhaps.
Nuno and Forest show the benefits of an old-school approach
And maybe there’s a fourth contender.
Forest are rightly dreaming of a fairy-tale season, sitting on 40 points from 20 matches, the exact same record as Leicester City had at this stage when they won the title in 2015/16.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are a remarkable and poignant counter-point to the tactical trends of the day, because the head coach's commitment to the polar opposite of super-club tactics offers an alternative future for English football.
It’s not that Forest don’t prioritise possession and pressing. It’s that they flat-out reject it, ranking bottom of the Premier League for possession share (39.9 per cent), pass completion (75.1 per cent), and the best passes per defensive action (PPDA), which measures pressing intensity, of 16.1.
Leicester finished with 81 points in their historic year, a low tally for champions, so winning the title is probably beyond Forest given the strength of their rivals.
Nevertheless, UEFA Champions League qualification is definitely on the cards.
Only four of the 70 teams to have amassed at least 40 points after 20 matches have failed to finish inside the top four, while fifth spot this season could earn a Champions League place.
The two-time winners of the European Cup could be welcomed back to the competition in September.
Man City may not return to their "level" until next season
Forest might even beat the current Premier League champions to a place in Europe's elite competition.
Man City have won back-to-back league matches but both West Ham United and Leicester created chances through a still-porous midfield, hence Pep Guardiola’s continued pessimism about what’s ahead.
"Our performance was not good," Guardiola said after the 4-1 win against West Ham. "We saw in many years our level. We are not at our level.
"Of course there are an incredible lot of positives, but if you ask me if the team is playing like it has played years ago, no, absolutely not."
The problem remains Rodri’s absence, and even as their attacking fluency returns - thanks in part to Savinho finding form from the left wing - it is too easy to cut through Man City.
Since he first joined, City average 2.37 points with Rodri in the side and 1.69 without. That's the difference, over a 38-match season, between 90 points and 64 points.
The title race is over, as Bernardo Silva said recently, and their focus now is on displacing Forest in the top four. It won’t be easy - especially with Newcastle United to contend with.
Tonali and Isak put Newcastle in the driving seat for Champions League spot
A run of five consecutive Premier League victories has put Newcastle above Man City in the Premier League table and reignited hope of Champions League qualification.
At this rate it’s theirs to lose, thanks to Eddie Howe finding his best XI after 18 months of injuries and suspensions interrupted Newcastle’s flow.
Newcastle's last five PL results
Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimaraes have been superb, dovetailing between the No 6 and No 8 roles in central midfield, while Lewis Hall and Timo Livramento have emerged as top-drawer full-backs, and forward Alexander Isak is in the form of his life.
Isak, with 13 goals in 18 Premier League matches, is arguably the best No 9 in the division right now and with Anthony Gordon’s support, he is unlikely to slow down anytime soon.
Other than Man City, the most likely challengers for a possible fifth Champions League spot are Villa, who despite performing well below their best in the first half of the season are only three points behind Newcastle.
Unai Emery is expecting to strengthen in several areas in January, while Ian Maatsen and Leon Bailey are only just beginning to find form this season, suggesting Villa could have a better points return in the second half of the campaign.
They will push Newcastle, Man City and Forest all the way. But six does not go into five.
Bournemouth and Fulham are shaking up the race for Europe
In an ordinary season, you would expect Manchester United, Spurs and possibly West Ham to be following up behind the Champions League places but at the moment it looks like we will have a few new faces in Europe.
AFC Bournemouth have never qualified for European competition, but with eighth place potentially earning a UEFA Europa Conference League spot, Andoni Iraola’s side have it firmly in their sights – or at least they did until Evanilson’s metatarsal injury. How the Cherries react to losing their No 9 will define their season.
Fulham, on an eight-match unbeaten run but currently drawing too many games after a fast start to 2024/25, could be let back in.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 |
Man City
MCI
|
20 | +9 | 34 |
| 7 |
Bournemouth
BOU
|
20 | +7 | 33 |
| 8 |
Aston Villa
AVL
|
20 | -2 | 32 |
| 9 |
Fulham
FUL
|
20 | +3 | 30 |
| 10 |
Brighton
BHA
|
20 | +1 | 28 |
| 11 |
Brentford
BRE
|
20 | +3 | 27 |
| 12 |
Spurs
TOT
|
20 | +12 | 24 |
Meanwhile Brighton are still in with a shot at Europe but look a little gung-ho under Fabian Hurzeler and require a goalscoring striker to overcome a leaky defence.
If Brentford's first away win of the season, 5-0 at Southampton last weekend, is a sign of things to come then Thomas Frank’s side can certainly make up the six-point gap to Bournemouth in seventh, especially if they also continue to add to their 22 home points - a tally bettered only by Liverpool's 23.
The race for Europe has never been tighter - and has never involved more clubs outside the traditional "big six".
Postecoglou's idealism being questioned despite injury crisis
Spurs' record of 24 points from 20 matches is their lowest at this stage since 2008/09, the year Juande Ramos was replaced as manager by Harry Redknapp in October.
Indeed, since their run of eight wins from 10 matches at the start of Ange Postecoglou's reign, Spurs have earned 64 points from 48 matches, a rate of 1.33 points per game that, over a 38-match season, would give them 50 points.
It has prompted some pundits and Spurs fans to wonder if Postecoglou’s idealistic football should be tempered for a more pragmatic approach, although that perspective somewhat ignores the injury crisis that has ravaged the team.
Spurs fans have got used to seeing a right-back and a central midfielder line up together as a centre-back pair, while Cristian Romero and Micky van de Ven - who have missed 19 Premier League matches between them - have been fit to start only six league fixtures together.
Long time until Man Utd's "storm" has passed
After Man Utd’s 4-0 victory over Everton at the start of December, Ruben Amorim predicted that a “storm will come” - and indeed it did.
His side lost six matches across December, their most in a single calendar month since 1932.
The 2-2 draw at Anfield last weekend provided plenty of green shoots, but if there’s one lesson United fans have learned this season it’s that recovery will take even longer than they imagined.
“The idea needs time,” Amorim said after the 2-0 defeat at Wolverhampton Wanderers on Boxing Day. “I have no idea [how long it will take]. No idea.
“Instead of me trying to understand how much time it will take, [I will work] day by day.”
Results under Amorim say as much, and there’s widespread understanding that a complete overhaul is needed despite the money spent under Erik ten Hag last summer.
There’s no getting around it. Amorim’s tactical blueprint will take time to implement - meaning more pain ahead before Man Utd can think about returning to the top table.
Battering-ram Delap makes Ipswich the best of promoted clubs
Throughout the 2024/25 Premier League season, pundits have praised Ipswich Town for being feisty and competitive, going close in matches without taking many points.
Finally, Kieran McKenna’s side have started winning. Seven points from their last five matches puts Ipswich level on points with Wolves in 17th spot and confirms that they are the best of the promoted clubs.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
CRY
|
20 | -7 | 21 |
| 16 |
Everton
EVE
|
19 | -10 | 17 |
| 17 |
Wolves
WOL
|
20 | -14 | 16 |
| 18 |
Ipswich
IPS
|
20 | -15 | 16 |
| 19 |
Leicester
LEI
|
20 | -21 | 14 |
| 20 |
Southampton
SOU
|
20 | -32 | 6 |
Liam Delap’s improving form has been the difference over the last few weeks, his battering-ram presence up top providing a focal point and a clinical edge in the penalty area, and with new signings expected this month, Ipswich will remain in the fight.
Leicester City, too, are still in it. They are only a couple of points further back, thanks to the brilliance of Facundo Buonanotte and the ageless Jamie Vardy.
Ruud van Nistelrooy started slowly but Leicester were impressive in unlucky defeats to Man City and Villa in their last two, suggesting an upturn could be just around the corner.
Southampton, however, have the joint-lowest points after 20 matches in Premier League history. It would take a miraculous escape from here.
Still so much to determine in relegation fight
Four other clubs look to be in the relegation battle, although West Ham - having just appointed Graham Potter - will understandably be looking up, not down, given the quality in their squad and the pedigree of the new head coach.
Crystal Palace are also on the up, claiming 18 points from their last 12 matches after a winless opening eight, and with Ismaila Sarr and Eberechi Eze in form behind Jean-Philippe Mateta, Eagles supporters' anxieties are melting away.
Everton, on the other hand cannot buy a goal, and after a five-match winless run, they are now only one point above the drop zone, a position made worse by Wolves’ small improvement following the appointment of Vitor Pereira.
But new-manager bounces will wear off, more changes could be afoot, and January signings will shake things up significantly.
There are plenty of twists and turns yet to come.