Alex Keble analyses the thrilling 1-1 draw between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool.
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The hosts might have clung on at the end, but if there was one lesson from a wild, frantic, blood-and-thunder Premier League classic, it was that Nottingham Forest have every right to believe they are here to stay.
The final half an hour was "like ping pong," in the words of a beaming Nuno Espirito Santo on TNT Sports, the result not of Liverpool’s perfectly reasonable desperation to grab a winner – but of Forest’s almost reckless indulgence in springing counter-attacks.
They refused to be beaten, in no small part thanks to inspired performances from Matz Sels and Murillo, and refused to hunker down and take the point.
In doing so, Forest showed they believe a miracle can happen; believe they can follow in the footsteps of Leicester City and provide the Premier League with one of its greatest ever stories.
Liverpool more than played their part, showing great character to haul themselves back into the game and almost stealing it at the death, but as the final whistle blew it was Forest celebrating the result – and, one would think, Arsenal too.
Forest are in the title race
By traditional metrics Liverpool dominated this game, holding 71 per cent possession, taking 23 shots to Forest’s six and producing an Expected Goals (xG) of 1.95 to Forest’s 0.39.
But that doesn’t reflect the way Forest were ruthless in their counter-attacks, steadfast in their defending and happy to sit back and close off the spaces in their own third.
It is why, in their unique way, Forest can claim to have matched Liverpool in this most dramatic clash of tactical styles.
Had Anthony Elanga’s low cross found a willing recipient in the dying minutes, nobody could have begrudged Forest the three points. Certainly they were well worth the one, which left them a mere six points behind a Liverpool side who have now drawn two league games in a row.
For the first time, Liverpool have slightly opened the door to their rivals. Forest are legitimately one of them.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
20 | +28 | 47 |
| 2 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
21 | +10 | 41 |
| 3 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
20 | +21 | 40 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
21 | +15 | 37 |
Leicester-like performance tells us City Ground crowd can keep this going
And it isn’t just that Nuno’s tactics are a counterpoint to the rest of the league, a difference that makes them difficult to read - and perfectly set up to expose the weaknesses of the systems in vogue everywhere else.
It’s that the tactics, and indeed the players themselves, look more and more like 2015/16 Leicester with each passing game.
Chris Wood’s first-half goal, ruthlessly converting a chance in transition after Elanga put him clean through, was so Jamie Vardy-like it sparked a shiver of deja vu.
Wood has now opened the scoring in nine Premier League matches this season, at least three more than any other player, while Elanga has assisted Wood eight times, more than any other partnership.
There is a sense here of the Vardy-Riyad Mahrez relationship, and how these two would combine to give Leicester an early lead upon which to build.
The comparisons don’t stop there.
Murillo was the standout player, imperious and seemingly omnipresent, making a stunning 18 clearances in a dominant performance reminiscent of Wes Morgan in his Leicester pomp.
Even Sels had a Leicester-like air, the pick of his five second-half saves a sprawling star jump that kept out Diogo Jota in the style of Kasper Schmeichel.
The players aren’t the only ones bringing that fairytale energy. The way the City Ground erupted, not just for the goal but every thunderous challenge and defiant hoofed clearance, evoked the King Power a decade ago.
It’s still very unlikely, with UEFA Champions League qualification a more realistic expectation, but Forest have most definitely earned the right to dream.
Slot's changes make a huge impact
From a Liverpool perspective, the game flipped in the second half after Arne Slot’s bold substitutions, and had Jota managed to seal the win, the visitors would understandably have felt it was richly deserved.
"If we can continue bringing these performances in like we did in the second half, then we will not always be that unlucky that it ends with a draw," Slot told TNT Sports.
That second-half display was largely down to him.
Kostas Tsimikas assisted Jota within 22 seconds of coming off the bench, but it was the ensuing tactical change that shifted the feel of the match.
After labouring through the first half, in which Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister failed to find space centrally, Slot switched things up by bringing on Jota for Ibrahima Konate and moving to a 3-2-2-3 formation.
Now with a box in midfield – Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch at the base, Szoboszlai and Luis Diaz in front of them – Liverpool had the numbers centrally to pull Forest around.
Liverpool's average first-half positions
Liverpool's average positions after Jota's goal
They got chances, but Mohamed Salah misfiring and Sels’ goalkeeping meant Liverpool couldn’t take advantage.
Still, Slot’s capacity to read a game and rewrite it with tactical changes was, once again, evidence Liverpool can hold onto their lead in the title race.
Liverpool have gained 14 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, more than any other side, and that is thanks almost entirely to Slot’s reactions from the dugout.
Nevertheless, Arsenal now have the chance to move within four points of Liverpool with victory in the north London derby on Wednesday.
But on Tuesday’s evidence, Mikel Arteta’s side might struggle to match the intensity, fight and self-belief of either of their title rivals.
Read tactical analysis from the Coaches' Voice on the 1-1 draw between Forest and Liverpool on Wednesday.
