Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 21.
Team analysis: Arsenal
Arsenal have had better weeks.
Two cup losses, a string of missed chances and a serious knee injury for Gabriel Jesus have soured the mood in N5 ahead of a north London derby at home to Spurs.
They remain heavy favourites to beat Ange Postecoglou’s side on Wednesday evening, but there are issues for them to solve ahead of a potentially season-defining game.
Is poor finishing costing Arsenal?
Mikel Arteta’s side are dominating matches. In 11 of their last 12 Premier League matches, Arsenal have "won" the Expected Goals (xG) battle, averaging 1.77 xG per contest.
They have scored 24 times in that period, outperforming the metric by 2.76 extra goals.
While it has been a week to forget, those numbers do not ring any alarm bells.
In fact, over the course of 2024/25 the Gunners – who are joint-third top scorers with Chelsea on 39 – have scored four more goals than predicted.
A look at their season conversion rates compared to the current top six also confirms that finishing has not been a major issue.
What we have seen of late could be an anomaly.
PL top six chance and big chance conversion
| Team | Chance conversion (rank) | Team | Big chance conversion (rank) |
| Liverpool | 14.87% (2nd) | Liverpool | 41.18% (5th) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 14.13% (5th) | Arsenal | 40.30% (6th) |
| Chelsea | 12.38% (7th) | Man City | 40.00% (7th) |
| Newcastle | 12.10% (8th) | Newcastle | 37.04% (10th) |
| Nottingham Forest | 11.24% (10th) | Nottingham Forest | 31.91% (13th) |
| Man City | 10.53% (12th) | Chelsea | 31.43% (14th) |
Tottenham Hotspur, incidentally, have also been good finishers, despite sitting in the bottom half of the table.
They are currently ranked fourth for the best conversion rate on 14.14 per cent, and fourth for big chance conversion, with 43.94 per cent.
How will Arsenal adapt to latest injury setback?
Arteta is running out of players to start on the right flank.
Bukayo Saka is out until late March, Ethan Nwaneri is also sidelined, while Gabriel Jesus will undergo surgery after suffering an anterior cruciate ligament injury.
Those were the Spaniard’s first three options to occupy that spot, so now he must turn to Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard or Raheem Sterling.
Loanee Sterling is perhaps the most natural replacement, catching the eye in flashes against Manchester United in the FA Cup last Sunday.
While his decision making could have been better, he cannot be faulted for his drive and positivity.
Sterling made 11 dribbles after coming on as a 40th-minute substitute, running at his full-back almost every time he had the ball at his feet.
Spurs left-back Djed Spence, who has been in excellent form, would be asked to deal with that.
Sterling's attacking stats v Man Utd
| Statistic | Total |
| Minutes played | 80 |
|---|---|
| Shots | 1 |
| Key passes | 2 |
| Attempted dribbles | 11 |
| Successful dribbles | 5 |
| Touches in opp. box | 10 |
| Crosses | 4 |
Trossard and Martinelli are used far more often on the left, although the Brazilian did impress against Crystal Palace from the opposite side.
Dashing to the byline, his cross helped set up Kai Havertz’s goal at Selhurst Park.
Martinelli's assist for Havertz v Palace
Perfect position to prod it home 🤝 pic.twitter.com/MaEn12C2xn
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) December 22, 2024
These percentage per position graphics (below) for this season show Sterling's most played position has been down the right flank for Arsenal (58 per cent), while Martinelli (11 per cent) and Trossard (four per cent) have only had brief stints on the right, and have typically starred in the left-wing position.
In fact, this season Sterling has played 146 minutes on the right out of 506, which is greater than Trossard, with 64 minutes out of the Belgian's 1,611 minutes, but less than Martinelli, with 216 minutes on the right out of 1,961 in total, highlighting that if Sterling were to feature more, he would be the outstanding candidate for the vacant right-wing position.
Regression from Trossard and Odegaard
Arsenal need big performances from a pair of top-class attackers who have endured notable dips in their attacking output.
Belgium international Trossard is usually a reliable finisher, but he has scored just once over his last 14 Premier League appearances.
Netting at a rate of one goal every 370 minutes, Trossard is way down on the 137 minutes per goal he managed in 2023/24.
Trossard's attacking stats last three seasons
| Statistic | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 |
| Goals & assists/90 | 0.80 | 0.71 | 0.41 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mins per goal | 282 | 137 | 370 |
| Shots/90 | 2.20 | 3.28 | 2.19 |
| Conversion rate | 14.55% | 20.00% | 11.11% |
Odegaard's attacking stats last three seasons
| Statistic | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 |
| Goals & assists/90 | 0.63 | 0.52 | 0.26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mins per goal | 210 | 387 | 1,023 |
| Shots/90 | 2.66 | 2.24 | 1.67 |
| Conversion rate | 5.26% | 10.39% | 16.30% |
Martin Odegaard’s goal threat has also diminished since an outstanding 2022/23 campaign, when he scored 15 goals.
Netting just once this season, with a penalty, Arsenal’s captain is struggling to impact games with as much frequency.
Is Odegaard too restricted?
From a structural perspective, Odegaard has been more "right sided" this season, and it feels as if that has been detrimental to his game.
Perhaps too easy to mark, his movements and involvements are more predictable.
A look at where he has produced shots and key passes from across the last three seasons (below) paints the picture of a playmaker that does not roam as freely as he did before.
Odegaard's shot and assist map 22/23
Odegaard's shot and shot assist map 23/24
Odegaard's shot and shot assist map 24/25
In the continued absence of Saka, using Odegaard as a No 10 instead of as a right-sided No 8 could get the skipper into more advanced goalscoring or goal assisting positions.
Odegaard’s inclination to pull right, with Declan Rice or Mikel Merino mirroring it on the other side, can at times leave striker Havertz isolated.
As a consequence, he is less involved in the build-up phase than the German would like to be.
For attacking midfielders to make supporting runs down the spine, the most dangerous part of the pitch, Arsenal must feed more passes into Havertz.
His touch map from the FA Cup tie against Man Utd shows that he had no touches between the halfway line and penalty area in central areas in over 120 minutes of football.
Havertz's touch map v Man Utd
Too much passing was funnelled into the wide areas, where a stream of hopeful crosses were attempted.
A different type of test
From a tactical viewpoint, this north London derby looks a much better stylistic match-up for the Gunners compared to what they have faced in recent weeks.
Fulham, Everton, Ipswich Town, Brentford, Newcastle United and Man Utd all set up with low blocks in a bid to frustrate Arteta’s side.
A 3-1 win against the Bees was the only match where they scored more than once.
Under Postecoglou, Spurs always play in an attacking manner, committing players into forward areas and never shying away from their natural pressing game.
This approach should in theory allow Arsenal more opportunities to pass through the lines and to run in behind.
No matter which style Spurs adopt, it is important for the Gunners to show greater variety in their build-up play, more fluency in terms of player positioning and of course better finishing.
This is a hugely important match in the context of their season.
