Lewis-Skelly against Rogers can determine Arsenal v Villa

Football writer Adrian Clarke identifies the key players, team tactics and where matches could be won and lost in Matchweek 22.

Match analysis: Arsenal v Aston Villa

Now just four points behind Liverpool, albeit having played one game more than the leaders, a key week for Arsenal comes into an even sharper focus on Saturday evening.

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Injury-hit Arsenal require a home victory against Aston Villa to keep the pressure on Arne Slot’s side, as they look to back up their midweek north London derby success.  

Revenge will also be in the air as the Gunners look to make amends for a costly 0-2 defeat in this fixture last April.

Arteta v Emery 

Unai Emery has narrowly held the upper hand in his six meetings with the coach who replaced him as manager of Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta has beaten Emery twice at Villa Park, including a 2-0 win back in August, but in both head-to-heads at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal failed to score.  

Arteta and Emery's head-to-head

While in charge of Villarreal, Emery’s disciplined, defensive approach shut out Arsenal in a goalless draw in the UEFA Europa League semi-final in May 2021.

And famously last season, Villa beat them thanks to an outstanding second-half tactical display that played a part in Arsenal missing out on the title.  

What will be Villa’s tactical approach?

Arsenal just encountered Tottenham Hotspur, the league’s most fervent pressing side, and it was a potential problem they navigated with ease, consistently playing around Ange Postecoglou’s side.  

Villa will present them with different problems. In fact, Emery’s men rarely press with hostility inside the final third, making fewer turnovers in that area than anyone else in the league this season.  

Fewest pressures in final third resulting in a turnover

What they are likely to do instead is sit back in a compact mid-pitch 4-4-2 block with the intention of screening passes into Arsenal’s central midfielders.  

The striker and No 10 will drop in on the holding midfielder and inverted left-back Myles Lewis-Skelly. Villa’s double pivot will mark wider against Arsenal’s No 8s, while the narrow wingers will look after Jurrien Timber and Gabriel.  

This example from the August encounter illustrates their plan, which may lead to Arteta keeping Lewis-Skelly out wide rather than inverting.

Villa did commit to a rare press in this move. Once John McGinn triggered the press, three others followed, and after robbing Gabriel they almost scored via Ollie Watkins.

How will Villa handle Arsenal’s press? 

Arsenal closed Spurs down with ferocious intent on Wednesday night, causing their rivals a host of problems inside their own defensive third.

Arteta is likely to repeat this tactic against a Villa team who have had problems playing out from the back this season and been caught in possession on numerous occasions.

Arsenal and Nottingham Forest are the only sides yet to make an error that led to a goal, but Emery’s side have seen 10 concessions caused by individual mistakes.  

That is the second-highest tally behind Southampton, with 15.

As shown below, 22 of Arsenal’s 35 turnovers against Spurs resulted from pressures made inside the final third.  

Arsenal's pressures compared with Spurs'

Emery is pragmatic by nature though, so he will almost certainly counter Arsenal’s pressing game by playing the ball longer and more direct.  

This is a tactic he employed in the 2-0 win at Emirates Stadium last April.

At times he asked No 10 Morgan Rogers to play deeper so that they had a numerical advantage when passing out from the back.  

However, he also encouraged longer passes to the three or four players he regularly kept upfield, bypassing Arsenal's press.  

It is well explained by Coaches' Voice in this article here.

Can Arsenal tame Rogers? 

Arteta and his players will have to devise a plan to keep in-form Rogers quiet at Emirates Stadium.  

The 22-year-old has arguably been Villa’s best player this season, and was borderline unstoppable in the reverse fixture back in August.  

He comes into this match in great form too, scoring and assisting three goals apiece across his last seven Premier League appearances.

Injury issues have forced Emery to move Rogers away from his favoured No 10 position in recent matches – using Youri Tielemans there instead – but it has not diminished his influence.

Rogers had impressed as a narrow left-sided forward, but in midweek against Everton he starred on the right flank, driving infield to cause damage.  

Rogers’ powerful run and precise through-ball for Watkins' winner encapsulated his threat down that side.

Rogers' assist for Watkins v Everton

In their last meeting Rogers’ powerful runs, with and without the ball, were a constant thorn in Arsenal’s side.  

Thomas Partey and Declan Rice both struggled to handle his forcefulness and athleticism.  

Whether he starts on the left, right, or even down the centre, his ability to pierce them with runs from deep will be a concern.

He did so to brilliant effect in Villa’s 2-1 success against Manchester City, running on to Tielemans’ through-ball before squaring to Jhon Duran.  

Rogers' run and assist for Duran v Man City

Rogers has fast developed into one of the strongest ball carriers in the division.

Rogers' ball carries 24/25

And from those surging runs he often makes things happen.

Denying him space to surge into will be a priority for the Gunners.

Key Duel: Rogers v Lewis-Skelly

If Emery starts Rogers down Villa’s right for the second successive game, his individual battle with 18-year-old left-back Lewis-Skelly will be a terrific watch.

The Arsenal teenager was outstanding in the north London derby, winning three tackles, five duels, two interceptions and six ball recoveries.

No player in the league, with at least four starts, has had a better success rate in duels than Lewis-Skelly.

PL players highest duel success rate 24/25

*Min four starts and outfield players only

His strength in 50-50 challenges is remarkable given his age, using his body very cleverly to protect the ball and outmuscle opposition wingers.

When Lewis-Skelly gets tight to Rogers he will be effective, but once the Villa star gets into his stride and hits his top speed it will test the youngster’s pace.  

It could be a thrilling battle to watch.  

Keeping Watkins quiet

Arsenal have encountered difficulties handling Watkins in the past.  

The England striker has scored five time in nine outings against them, and he should have added two more to that tally in August when spurning a pair of golden opportunities.  

Walkins' goal v Arsenal last season

William Saliba and Gabriel have the pedigree to keep him at bay. 

Saliba certainly has the pace to match Watkins, and based on his movements this season, it is more likely the Villa forward takes up positions on the Frenchman’s side. 

Watkins, Saliba and Gabriel's top speed 24/25

Watkins regularly drifts left and loves to make channel runs on that side of the pitch.  

Jurrien Timber will want to get forward and join in with attacks from Arsenal’s right flank, but if possession is lost, Watkins will sprint into areas he has vacated.

Arsenal’s two central defenders must always be acutely aware of their own positioning.  

Arteta’s men dominated possession and territory against Spurs, with Saliba and Gabriel regularly stationed midway inside the opposition half.  

In those situations, Watkins will loiter with intent, and ready himself for breakaway runs.  

His goal in the 2-0 victory on their last visit - a counter-attack from an Arsenal corner - saw him stay onside by latching on to a through-ball from inside his own half.  

The Gunners cannot afford to allow lightning to strike twice.