Football writer Alex Keble analyses where the weekend fixtures could be won and lost, including:
- Will fast-breaking Chelsea hurt Man City as PSG did?
- Will Forest’s playing style negate high-pressing Bournemouth?
- Will Davis find joy against Alexander-Arnold?
- Can Martinelli’s new role take advantage of Wolves’ flaw?
- Will leaky Leicester give Postecoglou the reprieve he needs?
- How can Potter get West Ham scoring without a striker?
- How will Man Utd players react to Amorim's strong comment?
- Is trip to Southampton the perfect tonic for fatigued Newcastle?
- How quickly has Moyes turned Everton around?
- Will Palace and Brentford keep moving in opposite directions?
Will fast-breaking Chelsea hurt Man City as PSG did?
Hopes that a run of 10 points from four Premier League matches was the sign of a comeback - and not a mere quirk of the fixture computer - were dashed by the manner of Manchester City’s 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday.
They welcome Chelsea this weekend with renewed timidity and concern, not least because Enzo Maresca’s fast-breaking side will look to emulate how Bradley Barcola tore through Matheus Nunes to ignite the PSG comeback.
It’s an old story now, but it remains relevant - without Rodri in central midfield Man City have become passive when out of possession, allowing opponents to pick out the pass that launches the counter-attack.
Chelsea's 39 fast breaks rank second in the Premier League this season, with Noni Madueke, Pedro Neto and Jadon Sancho among the wingers capable of bursting beyond Man City’s high line.
The problem for Pep Guardiola is psychological as well as tactical. Man City have lost their last three Premier League matches played immediately after a UEFA Champions League outing, and with progress in both competitions stuttering it may be hard to lift the players for Saturday’s headline encounter.
All hope rests on Kevin De Bruyne, with four assists in his last three league outings, and Phil Foden, who’s scored five in his last three matches.
These two are back in form and ready to strike at a Chelsea midfield significantly weakened by injuries to Enzo Fernandez and Romeo Lavia. But will City’s playmakers have enough to counteract the damage Chelsea can do at the other end?
Will Forest’s unique playing style negate high-pressing Bournemouth?
A huge six weeks awaits Nottingham Forest, who over the next six Premier League matches exclusively play clubs in the top 10. Fortunately for them, the first might deceptively play right into their hands.
AFC Bournemouth have had a competition-high 45 shots from high turnovers this season, and as we saw in their impressive 4-1 win at Newcastle United last weekend, are at their best when able to press hard, force turnovers, and pour forward in attack.
Forest will not allow that to happen. Their deep-lying formation and willingness to go long from the back negates Bournemouth’s fashionable tactics, and is in fact the secret to Nuno Espirito Santo’s continued success.
Andoni Iraola’s side have a recent history of struggling for fluency in games like these, drawing 0-0 at home to Crystal Palace and 1-1 at home to West Ham United, as well as losing 1-0 at Leicester City.
If Forest can frustrate the hosts, cancel out their progressive football, and grab the three points, they can set themselves a template for the rest of the top-10 matches to follow.
Will Davis find joy against Alexander-Arnold?
Liverpool's form make them confident of extending their unbeaten Premier League run to 18 matches.
Away from home, the only points Ipswich Town have taken against a top-eight opponent was their 2-1 win at Tottenham Hotspur over two months ago.
But if they stand any chance of slowing Liverpool down, frustrating them like Brentford (almost) did last weekend, and picking them off at the other end, then it’s likely to come down to the battle between Trent Alexander-Arnold and Leif Davis.
Davis is the only player to have created 20+ chances from both open-play (21) and set-play (20) in the Premier League, while only one defender has created more chances overall (41) than him: Alexander-Arnold (42).
Alexander-Arnold continues to have his defensive work closely scrutinised, suggesting Ipswich breaks could see Davis sprinting into space down that side. It is the only potential weak spot that Liverpool ought to be concerned about.
Can Martinelli’s new role take advantage of Wolves’ flaw?
Arsenal haven’t made it easy for themselves in recent weeks, often labouring in attack without Bukayo Saka, but the 2-2 draw with Aston Villa last weekend contained the hint at a long-term solution.
Gabriel Martinelli excelled from the right wing, and by getting on the end of a Leandro Trossard cross to give Arsenal the lead showed the advantage of a winger willing to get into the box.
Martinelli's opener v Villa
Gabi ghosting in 💨 pic.twitter.com/YKpNkOcEJl
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) January 19, 2025
This combination could be fruitful at Wolverhampton Wanderers. Arsenal have scored more goals from crosses than any other side in the Premier League this season, with 11, while Wolves have conceded the most goals from crosses (10).
Martinelli’s presence at the right-hand post could make all the difference, especially given that Wolves have lost all three of their Premier League matches in 2025, conceding three goals in each defeat.
They are there for the taking, while Arsenal, despite more dropped points against Villa, have found a new route to goal.
Will leaky Leicester give Postecoglou the reprieve he needs?
Ange Postecoglou badly needs a simple win to ease the pressure and get his team’s confidence off the floor. He might be feeling grateful, then, that Spurs welcome Leicester to north London this weekend.
Since the start of December only Southampton, with eight, have lost more Premier League matches than Spurs' seven or conceded more goals (25) than Postecoglou’s side (22), yet even in these circumstances Leicester are in worse form.
Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side have lost their last consecutive seven Premier League matches. Going back further, since his first match in charge, only Brentford and Southampton, with 176 and 169 respectively, have faced more shots than the 154 of Leicester.
Their leaky defence is a huge opportunity for Spurs to start scoring freely again. A comfortable home win seems likely. Anything other than that doesn’t bear thinking about.
How can Potter get West Ham scoring without a striker?
Seeing the Villa strikers on display this Saturday might trigger a pang of jealousy in West Ham supporters.
In the last week Villa have reportedly turned down two offers from West Ham for Jhon Duran, who apparently almost joined the Hammers in the summer, and yet Duran isn’t even able to get into the Villa first XI.
If Ollie Watkins scores or assists in this game he will become the fastest player to 100 Premier League goal involvements (in 169 games) since De Bruyne (155) in July 2020, and the fastest Englishman since Harry Kane in November 2017 (128).
Graham Potter is desperate for a striker on the same level as either Villa’s first or second choice No 9s, a need that has only grown since Jarrod Bowen’s injury; since the start of last season West Ham have lost five of the seven matches in which Bowen has not featured.
Potter’s Brighton & Hove Albion and Chelsea teams always struggled for goals. West Ham, who drew a blank at Crystal Palace last time out and scored three against Fulham despite only taking four shots at goal, clearly need a goalscoring striker if Potter is to improve on his Premier League history.
Unai Emery again in midweek spoke about the difficulty finding space for both Watkins and Duran in his team. To West Ham and Potter, those words must sound mocking.
How will Man Utd players react to Amorim's strong comment?
Ruebn Amorim has sought to row back on his headline-grabbing comments last weekend, telling reporters that he “said things I shouldn't say,” referring back to his claim this might be “the worst team, maybe, in the history of Manchester United.”
“I was talking more for myself than for my players," he said, explaining those explosive comments. “But sometimes it is really hard to hide my frustration in that moment.
“The good thing is I said the same things in a different way in the dressing room five minutes before. The response was quite normal because I'm really blunt with my players.”
A home game against Rangers in the Europa League is arguably too straightforward to illuminate how the players will respond to Amorim’s initial comments and subsequent regret. The trip to Fulham is the real test.
Fulham are unbeaten in five matches at Craven Cottage, while Man Utd have lost six of their last nine contests. It is essential United do not lose any more ground on the top 10 - and essential that Amorim’s ideas begin bearing fruit.
“Sometimes you are a young guy and do mistakes,” he said during his press conference. It was a frank and honest take on events of the last week, but it might not have inspired confidence in a Man Utd fan base desperate for Amorim to turn things around.
Is trip to Southampton the perfect tonic for fatigued Newcastle?
Newcastle looked “fatigued” in the 4-1 defeat to Bournemouth, in the words of Eddie Howe, and after virtually the same XI won nine matches on the trot in all competitions it is perhaps unsurprising that tiredness would eventually creep in.
A trip to Southampton is just what the doctor ordered.
Southampton’s total of six points is the joint-second lowest ever recorded after 22 top-flight matches (level with Sheffield United in 1975/76), with only Bolton Wanderers in 1902/03 (three) ever having fewer at this stage (adjusting to three points for a win).
They’ve also lost each of their last five home matches, failed to score in each of the last three games, and have made 17 errors leading to a goal this season - only four short of Spurs' record of 21 in 2013/14.
Meanwhile, Newcastle have lost just one of their last 23 Premier League fixtures against promoted sides. They will be confident of getting back to winning ways on Saturday.
How quickly has Moyes turned Everton around?
Losing at Villa and then beating Spurs is a decent start for David Moyes, but given the respective form of their opponents it is, quite possibly, par for the course.
A better test of how much Moyes has changed comes this weekend at Brighton, whose 3-1 win at Man Utd suggested Fabian Hurzeler’s side are back on the up. After going eight league matches without a victory, the Seagulls have now won two in a row.
Key to that run has been Kaoru Mitoma’s return to form. He has scored two goals and assisted another in his last two matches, and with Yankuba Minteh flourishing on the other side, Everton’s main task will be shutting down the wings.
Moyes has made Everton more controlled in possession, as well as better at creating chances and defending, as the stats suggest.
Everton's improvement under Moyes 24/25
| Per 90 minutes | Everton pre-Moyes | Everton last two |
| Possession | 39.8% | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|
| Expected Goals | 0.97 | 1.55 |
| Expected Goals Against | 1.41 | 1.17 |
How that translates to a tough match against aggressive attacking wingers is difficult to predict, but by the final whistle at the Amex Stadium we will have a much better idea of whether Moyes has improved upon the tactical set-up of his predecessor.
Will Palace and Brentford keep moving in opposite directions?
It’s hard to believe that only one point separate Brentford and Palace, or that a win for the hosts on Sunday will send Oliver Glasner’s side above Thomas Frank’s in the Premier League table.
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These two teams have had a deeply contrasting December and January. Brentford have won only one of their last nine matches in all competitions while Palace have lost only two of their 11 encounters, a difference captured in the movement the two clubs have made since 1 December.
The league table at the beginning of December had Brentford three points off fourth and Palace outside the relegation zone on goal difference alone.
The 11-point gap between them has shrunk to just one. It might have vanished altogether by full-time at Selhurst Park.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 |
Fulham
FUL
|
22 | +4 | 33 |
| 11 |
Brentford
BRE
|
22 | +1 | 28 |
| 12 |
Crystal Palace
CRY
|
22 | -3 | 27 |
| 13 |
Man Utd
MUN
|
22 | -5 | 26 |
