Marcus Rashford is the latest addition to Aston Villa's forward line, after parting company with Manchester United. In this article, Ryan Benson of Opta Analyst looks at how the striker's loan move could be beneficial for all parties.
There was an air of genuine positivity around Manchester United after the 2022/23 season, with Erik ten Hag’s first campaign in charge yielding a first trophy in six years and a return to the UEFA Champions League. Optimism was kindled as they looked to take another step forward in 2023/24.
Crucial to United building on those foundations would be the form of Marcus Rashford, fresh from the best season of his career and signing a new contract in July 2023.
Not long before Rashford signed his new deal, Ten Hag outlined what he felt was possible for the England international after netting 30 times in 2022/23.
"I'm sure he's capable of scoring 40 goals in the season and to make also for him the next step," Ten Hag said in late May 2023. "We supported him where we could with the way of play, but also in his mental mindset. So, we are happy with that, but yes, we have to push for more."
Since Ten Hag made that comment about 20 months ago, Rashford has scored just 15 times in 69 matches across all competitions for United, and his status at the club has nosedived to the extent he may never feature for them again, despite the player saying his exit is only for the "short term".
Can Rashford regain his form?
Aston Villa completed Rashford’s signing on Sunday, with the 27-year-old joining on an initial loan deal that is reported to include a £40 million option to buy.
It’s difficult to fathom how quickly Rashford’s career has turned on its head since that exceptional 2022/23 season seemed to suggest United – and more specifically Ten Hag – had finally found the secret to unlocking his potential.
But Ten Hag himself consistently alluded to how Rashford’s form – whether good or bad – could be linked to his life away from the pitch, saying as recently as September that he "has to set his life right, his training attitude right, his match attitude right".
Of course, internal concerns at Old Trafford seemingly weren’t allayed by a brief uptick in Rashford’s performances in the early part of this season, as made clear by Ruben Amorim.
United’s new head coach dropped Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho from his squad entirely for the Manchester derby win in December, and although the latter "changed right after that City game" to earn his place back in the team, Rashford hasn’t played since and been on the bench just once.
Considering Rashford’s status as a homegrown product of their academy and a childhood United fan who has gone on to play over 400 times for the club, it’s a sorry situation.
Reasons for optimism
But Rashford is by no means a lost cause, with Ten Hag’s first season proof of the dynamism and quality he can offer.
Similarly, Villa boss Unai Emery has an exceptional track record of developing players or getting the best out of those who’d previously threatened to squander their potential.
The level Emery will be attempting to get Rashford back to will obviously be that of two seasons ago when he managed 30 goals from 56 games in all competitions. His Opta Radar (below) gives an idea of his attacking output specifically in the Premier League that year.
Almost everything he touched turned to gold as Rashford played with purpose, bravery and, above all, decisiveness. Having been plagued by a hip injury for the entire prior campaign, he looked free of pain and, for the most part, sharper than ever.
But the next two Opta Radar images (below) provide a snapshot of how Rashford’s output – particularly in attack – has dwindled since.
Off-field issues have regularly been cited as potential causes for Rashford’s struggles, and it stands to reason that personal problems can impact performance, which might then lead to a decrease in confidence.
Certainly, if Rashford was to ultimately put his United struggles over the past 18 months or so down to a lack of confidence, few would be surprised.
After all, Rashford’s 3.4 shots per 90 in the Premier League in 2022/23 was the best shot frequency of his career and reflected an underlying conviction in his attacking play. You’d watch him and recognise he seemed to relish the responsibility of being the main goal threat.
But last season, despite his frequency of touches in the opposition’s box being very similar (a drop from 6.2 to 6.1 per 90), Rashford’s shot count reduced to 2.5 per 90. Unsurprisingly, then, his non-penalty Expected goals (xG) average dropped quite dramatically from 0.53 per 90 to 0.2.
His figures have fallen even further this term, with 1.46 shots per 90 seeing him rank only in the 16th percentile among forwards in the top five European leagues over the past 10 years.
Rashford’s strengths have never really related to creativity; more his pace, ball carrying and directness, with his end game usually being a shot – but in the past 18 months, his shooting frequency has decreased by more than a half.
It’s a similar story when analysing his ball-carrying habits. In 2022/23, he averaged 1.25 shot-ending carries in the Premier League, but that went down to 0.91 last term and then 0.64 this season.
Working closer to goal
One potential explanation for Rashford’s significantly decreased output in front of goal is that he hasn't received the ball into central areas as often.
His Premier League heat maps for 2022/23 and 2023/24 below show he played in broadly the same areas, but when you look at the red patches – where he had the highest concentration of touches – you can see how much closer to the box he generally operated in Ten Hag’s first season.
Rashford touches from 22/23 and 23/24
The difference might not look that significant, but together the maps illustrate how Rashford was influential over a bigger section of the pitch in 2022/23, with the red patch covering an area that is within the width of the 18-yard box or inside it.
We can get even more specific by looking at his touch-zone maps (below). While Rashford’s touches in the opposition’s box last season stayed comparable to the campaign before as already noted, they weren’t as concentrated to the left-most zone of the penalty area in 2022/23, and he saw more of the ball in the more central zones immediately outside the box.
Rashford touch-zone maps from 22/23 and 23/24
Furthermore, it's notable how few touches he managed in the six-yard box compared to 2022/23, which will have directly impacted how many goals he scored.
Essentially, Rashford generally played from deeper areas of the pitch in 2023/24, which is also reflected by his ball-carrying habits. Last season in the Premier League, he progressed the ball 93.1 metres upfield and carried the ball 152.5m in total on a per-90-minute basis.
In 2022/23, his respective figures for those metrics were 75.5m and 117.7m, highlighting how he didn’t need to carry the ball so far because he worked closer to the goal.
Perhaps the arrival of Rasmus Hojlund contributed to the change in Rashford’s on-pitch habits, forcing him to think differently about the positions he should take the ball into.
Or, the prolonged absence of the overlapping Luke Shaw, with whom he shared a fine understanding on the left in 2022/23, might have played a part.
It’s also fair to say that he was in a United team last term that underwhelmed for much of the season, which isn’t exactly conducive to thriving individually.
Linking up with new team-mates
How Rashford operates with Ollie Watkins at Villa will be intriguing to watch, though there are reasons to feel a move to Villa Park could be a shrewd decision by both parties.
Villa were so effective last season because they frequently tore through opponents in transition. They could get the ball through the lines quickly and also possessed the physical abilities to counter-attack in devastating fashion.
For instance, their 39 fast breaks was the fourth most in the Premier League, they ranked sixth for shot-ending fast breaks (33), and only three teams bettered their seven goals from fast breaks.
Aston Villa fast breaks 2023/24
This term, however, they’ve been far less fruitful. Their 21 fast breaks is bettered by 12 teams and those situations have yielded only one goal – only Everton and Leicester City have fewer.
Aston Villa fast breaks 2024/25
It could be that their opponents have become wise to such threats and therefore try to ensure matches are tighter, or perhaps the departure of Moussa Diaby and Leon Bailey’s reduced effectiveness have impacted Villa.
Rashford might help them bridge the gap in that respect, and it could also be a plus that Emery has previously worked with Kylian Mbappe, someone with a not-too-dissimilar profile to the England international, albeit considerably more productive and consistent.
It’s also worth bearing in mind that during Rashford’s best season, United led the way for shots in transition (241), fast breaks (36) and goals from fast breaks (nine).
Restoring confidence
How Villa play will be irrelevant if Emery can’t find a way to restore Rashford’s confidence and happiness, however. He’s played the best football of his career when he’s been brave and taken responsibility. The key, as he said in July 2023, is "freedom".
"I think that gives you the baseline to try and showcase your abilities," said Rashford. "I enjoy scoring goals, I enjoy making assists, playing in the forward areas and trying to cause a threat to the other team.
"We were just a little bit rigid in the past. Sometimes you’re not enjoying your football and that was the case with me, I wasn’t enjoying my football as much as I should be, as much I was used to enjoying it. Because of that, it influenced my performance and ultimately that’s how I am as a person, if I’m not happy then it’s difficult for me to play my best football."
Rashford’s strengths do fit in well with how many of Emery’s teams have played, and the fact it’s a fresh start somewhere different could give him a new lease of life, especially considering the atmosphere around the club isn’t as volatile as it is at United.
The constant questioning of his training performances by Amorim over the past six weeks might concern some, and Rashford ought to be aware that Emery doesn’t suffer the work-shy.
But there’s the potential for Rashford and Villa to be a match made in heaven.
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