Despite relentless Liverpool continuing to keep their composure as the title race intensifies, Alex Keble outlines why Arsenal's hopes of catching them are growing ever stronger.
For the first time this season, you could feel it in the atmosphere at Emirates Stadium last Sunday after Arsenal's 5-1 statement win Manchester City 5-1. A genuine belief from Arsenal supporters that a surge of good form is possible and, with it, a serious shot at a first Premier League title since 2003/04.
Liverpool have commanded the table for most of the season, so much so that many pundits believe it’s impossible to catch Arne Slot’s side. They are wrong.
Liverpool’s six-point gap is smaller than it looks – particularly with a showdown between the two sides to come.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
23 | +35 | 56 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
24 | +27 | 50 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
24 | +13 | 47 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
24 | +16 | 43 |
"You feel it will take a calamitous mistake from Liverpool for it to happen," said Ian Wright, after the win over Manchester City.
"But Arsenal just have to keep beating teams and if it does happen, then they have to be ready to take the chance."
Yes, Arsenal need to keep winning games. But it wouldn’t take anything "calamitous" for the leaders to slip.
Six points is a small gap, even with Liverpool having a game in hand. That happens to be a trip to Goodison Park - a tough prospect now that Everton have won three matches in a row under David Moyes.
If Liverpool drop any points there, it will give Arsenal a chance, not least because the two title rivals meet at Anfield in early May. Mikel Arteta’s side only need to get within three points of the current leaders to have the title - technically - in their own hands.
So, a couple of unexpected draws from Liverpool – a minor dip, nothing more – can put Arsenal back within touching distance.
Arsenal’s win over City could spark a surge
It was only one match, and Man City aren’t the force they once were this season, but the swagger in Arsenal’s performance last Sunday hints at something big coming.
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They attacked with verve and with purpose, thanks in no small part to the injection of energy from young players Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri.
There were no new signings for Arsenal in January, to Arteta's disappointment, but these two teenagers seem to have kicked the team into a whole new gear. Both of them were on the scoresheet against City.
See: Lewis-Skelly's goal v Man City
If they can play with such charisma - such free-flowing football, even without the injured Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, who, according to reports is out for a month - then perhaps Arteta’s side can repeat the form they showed in the second half of last season.
They won 12, drew one and only lost one of their final 14 matches in 2023/24. If they repeat that trick – and with a fully-fit defence, why not? Arsenal would end on 87 points.
That could be enough to win the title, assuming that Liverpool go through a tricky spell, which they could from 12 February when they play five Premier League matches in the space of 15 days. Arsenal, by contrast, only have three in that same period.
Liverpool and Arsenal's next five PL fixtures
Reliance on Salah hints at possible Liverpool slowdown
For Liverpool to get 87 points means them picking up 31 points from 15 games, not including a defeat by Arsenal - we’ll take it as read that needs to happen.
That translates to 10 wins, one draw and three defeats. It's a high number of losses but far from impossible, especially considering Liverpool still have to travel to the Etihad Stadium, Villa Park and Stamford Bridge in their remaining matches.
It looks unlikely now, but only because teams on winning streaks always have that air of invincibility. It’s an air that can disappear in a flash, just as confident players can suddenly look tired, dazed and confused as soon as results turn.
That could happen to Liverpool for one main reason: their dependence on Mohamed Salah.
The Egyptian has scored or assisted 34 of his team's 56 Premier League goals this season, the latest being his sublime finish to seal last Saturday's 2-0 win at in-form AFC Bournemouth.
See: Salah's second goal v Bournemouth
The Egyptian's tally of goal involvements amounts to 61 per cent of Liverpool's total, by far the highest proportion of any individual player in the Premier League. The second-highest is Alexander Isak, who has either scored or assisted 52 per cent of Newcastle United's league goals.
Highest share of goal involvements 24/25
| Player | Goals & assists | Team goals | % by player |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah | 34 | 56 | 61.0% |
| Alexander Isak | 22 | 42 | 52.0% |
| Liam Delap | 11 | 22 | 50.0% |
| Chris Wood | 19 | 40 | 48.0% |
| Cole Palmer | 20 | 45 | 44.4% |
| Ollie Watkins | 15 | 34 | 44.1% |
| Matheus Cunha | 15 | 34 | 44.1% |
| Erling Haaland | 21 | 48 | 43.8% |
An injury would obviously have enormous consequences, but so too would simple tiredness, of the sort that can happen through spring when a team is competing on four fronts. Arsenal, incidentally, are down to two competitions - Premier League and UEFA Champions League - after losing their EFL Cup semi-final to Newcastle on Wednesday night.
One wonders, too, if Salah’s contract situation will become more of an issue as the weeks go by, with the Egyptian's deal expiring this season.
There is every chance Salah’s form will continue, of course, but there is hope for Arsenal.
Arsenal's advantages motivate them more
"What a performance from Arsenal," said Gary Neville on his podcast, after the thrashing of Man City. "I have backed them to win the league at the start of the season and I've not changed my prediction."
He might be in the minority, but there are plenty of reasons to believe Arsenal can do it.
They will have fewer matches in all competitions than Liverpool, have already had their bad spell and look reinvigorated and ready to utilise their experience of previous run-ins under Arteta.
Liverpool, on the other hand, remain an unknown entity under Slot as they fight on multiple fronts.
We just don’t know how they will respond to adversity; to the very real prospect of a couple of disappointing results as tiredness sets in.
It is very rare for a Premier League team to go an entire season without a difficult period, and that is especially true for a new head coach working in England for the first time.
If they slip, Arsenal will hope to be there. Liverpool’s lead really isn’t as big as it looks.
