The Scout assesses the best way to invest in Aston Villa in Fantasy Premier League for their Double Gameweek 25 (DGW25).
Villa are among only two clubs to have a DGW25 and play at home on both occasions, entertaining Ipswich Town on Saturday 15 February before facing Liverpool four days later.
However, both Villa and Liverpool also have a Blank Gameweek 29, along with Newcastle United and Crystal Palace.
DGW25 fixtures
| Club | Matches |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | IPS (H), LIV (H) |
| Liverpool | WOL (H), AVL (A) |
The more players you have for DGW25, then, the fewer you will have for BGW29, which highlights the need for careful planning with your transfers in the coming period.
Who are Villa's form players?
Ollie Watkins (£8.9m) is the form player for Unai Emery’s side, with two goals, an assist and 22 points in the last four Gameweeks.
Watkins was the only player to produce more than one attacking return in this period, with Morgan Rogers (£5.6m) disappointing his 24+ per cent backers.
Villa’s most-owned player in Fantasy, Rogers approaches DGW25 on the back of just nine points in his previous four matches, with a single assist to his name.
In defence, Lucas Digne (£4.6m) and Matty Cash (£4.4m), who is now injured for DGW25, showed their all-round potential with an assist and a clean sheet apiece.
Villa's top points-scorers, GW21-24
| Player | G + A | CS* | Bonus points | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watkins | 3 | N/A | 4 | 22 |
| Ramsey | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| Tielemans | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| Digne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| Cash | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 |
*Clean sheets: Goalkeepers and defenders in FPL earn four points for a clean sheet, while midfielders get one point and forwards get none
Who is more likely to score in Villa's home matches?
By assessing Villa’s players in home matches alone, you get a better idea of who is offering the most threat.
Watkins’ huge goal threat is obvious here and certainly indicates he’s the one most likely to profit from the pair of matches. His 42 shots in the box is over three times the 13 of Rogers, who is the best of the rest for Villa here.
When it comes to big chances (BC) – or situations where the player is expected to score – Watkins’ advantage over his team-mates is even more substantial.
The forward’s total of 17 such opportunities is 13 more than second-placed Rogers and highlights Emery’s tactics in matches at Villa Park.
Rogers' potential for goals and assists is highlighted here. In addition to his four big chances, the midfielder has also created five such opportunities - this means he has been involved in a total of nine big chances in home matches, second to Watkins.
Digne’s ability to supply his team-mates with goalscoring opportunities is also evident in the table below. His six big chances created are more than any other Villa player in home encounters.
Big-chance involvement, home matches
| Player | Shots in box | BC | BC created | BC involvement |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watkins | 42 | 17 | 3 | 20 |
| Rogers | 13 | 4 | 5 | 9 |
| Digne | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| McGinn | 6 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Tielemans | 6 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
So, who are the best Villa picks for DGW25?
Watkins has both the form and underlying home statistics to suggest he will continue to outscore his team-mates in the upcoming period.
While Rogers’ numbers also show he remains great value for managers' midfields, Digne’s starting role looks to be under threat from Ian Maatsen (£4.5m) and he seems an unnecessary risk.
The big issue with Villa, though, is just how much managers should invest in DGW25 due to the impact this will have on the number of players at your disposal for BGW29.
Bearing in mind that Liverpool and Newcastle assets are highly-owned and also have a BGW29, striking a balance with your transfers is essential.
Arguably, then playing the Assistant Manager chip on Unai Emery (£0.8m) could be a better option than transferring in a Villa player at this point.
The Assistant Manager chip allows you to pick a manager and earn points from their club's results for three Gameweeks in a row. So if you played it on Emery in DGW25, you would profit from four matches across three Gameweeks, as it would also include games against Chelsea and Crystal Palace.
Crucially, three of Villa’s four matches in the next three Gameweeks are at home, with Chelsea also visiting Villa Park in Gameweek 26 before Villa travel to Palace.
And it's in home matches where Villa have been far more reliable this season – they have lost just one such contest, compared with six defeats on the road.
