Football writer Ben Bloom says Liverpool's response to dramatic late equaliser at Goodison Park could determine the direction of the Premier League title race.
How much might one goal alter the course of a season?
That is the current conundrum after Everton defender James Tarkowski’s late Merseyside derby volley rocked Liverpool to secure their hosts a dramatic 2-2 draw earlier this week.
It denied Arne Slot’s side maximum points from a game they were expected to win. But, more than that, it was the post-match reaction that struck the biggest concern, with Slot and Curtis Jones shown red cards as tempers frayed and a so-far serene campaign threatened to come off the rails for the first time.
“Emotions got the better of me,” admitted Slot on Friday. “If I could do that differently, if I look back, I would love to do that differently, and I hope to do that differently next time.
“It’s an emotional sport and sometimes individuals, out of emotion, make the wrong decision. That’s definitely what I did.”
A win at Goodison Park would have extended the Premier League leaders’ advantage to nine points over the chasing pack. Instead, they are seven clear of Arsenal with 14 games to play.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
24 | +35 | 57 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
24 | +27 | 50 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
24 | +13 | 47 |
| 4 |
Chelsea
CHE
|
25 | +13 | 43 |
“When the gap becomes a bit smaller than you expected, it’s always really positive,” said Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta. “You need that, generating momentum, and the next few weeks are going to be critical.”
Last season, Liverpool entered April top of the league and in a strong position to fight for the title before winning just two of their next seven games as their challenge quickly fell away.
Could Wednesday’s draw – which means they can no longer match Manchester City’s record Premier League haul of 100 points – be the start of a similar downturn? Or will it prove nothing more than a blip in an ultimately successful campaign?
Buoyed by history
Despite Liverpool’s frustration, which contrasted so markedly with Everton delight, Slot’s side maintain a considerable seven-point lead over every other club. Crucially, all teams have now played the same number of games.
History tells us that the chances of letting that great an advantage slip at this late stage are slim.
Excluding teams who benefited from games in hand, only two sides have come back from deficits of more than five points to win the Premier League after 24 or more games: Manchester United in 1995/96 and Man City in 2011/12.
Biggest points gaps overturned after 24 games or more
| Club | Season | Matches | Points behind | Difference in matches |
| Arsenal | 1997/98 | 25 | 12 | 3 fewer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Man Utd | 1995/96 | 26 | 9 | 1 more |
| Man City | 2013/14 | 26 | 9 | 3 fewer |
| Man City | 2011/12 | 32 | 8 | Equal |
| Man Utd | 2002/03 | 28 | 8 | 1 fewer |
| Man City | 2022/23 | 28 | 8 | 1 fewer |
With third-placed Nottingham Forest already 10 points off the pace, it would take something extraordinary for any team other than Arsenal to mount a title challenge from here. And it looks difficult enough for Arteta’s side.
The upcoming fixtures
This is an incredibly busy Premier League period for Liverpool, who are in the process of tackling five top-flight games in just a fortnight.
Still fighting on three fronts, March is dominated by UEFA Champions League and EFL Cup final action, with only one league fixture, at home against Southampton.
The Reds' European endeavours will then determine how hectic their season end will be.
Liverpool’s remaining Premier League fixtures
| Home matches | Away matches | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 16 Feb | Aston Villa | 19 Feb |
| Newcastle | 26 Feb | Man City | 23 Feb |
| Southampton | 8 March | Fulham | 5 April |
| Everton | 2 April | Leicester | 19 April |
| West Ham | 12 April | Chelsea | 3 May |
| Spurs | 26 April | Brighton | 18 May |
| Arsenal | 10 May | ||
| Crystal Palace | 25 May | ||
The strength of their Premier League title hopes will be much clearer by the end of this month.
Sunday’s visit to Wolverhampton Wanderers looks an ideal opportunity to return to winning ways, with Vitor Pereira’s side losing four consecutive league games prior to a rare win last time out. Wolves have also conceded more away goals (28) than every team except Leicester City (32).
Liverpool then face three European-chasing sides – Aston Villa, Man City and Newcastle United – in quick succession.
One potentially useful quirk of the fixture list sees Slot’s side play seven of their last 11 league games at Anfield, a fact that might prove increasingly advantageous if they go deep in the UEFA Champions League.
Rival troubles
Arsenal, who appear to be the only genuine challengers to Liverpool’s title aspirations, are currently unbeaten in 14 Premier League matches – their longest ever run without a defeat under Arteta.
They thrashed Man City 5-1 in their last top-flight outing and qualified for the UEFA Champions League knockouts in third place.
But Arteta now has a major headache to overcome, with a paucity of solutions.
This week’s news that Kai Havertz is out for the season means Arsenal must fend without their leading goalscorer.
Troublingly, the next three men on that goalscoring list – Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Jesus and Gabriel Martinelli – are also currently injured, with no immediate return on the horizon for any of them.
That leaves 17-year-old Ethan Nwaneri as the only fit Arsenal player with more than five goals in all competitions this season.
Arteta spoke publicly of his desire to sign another forward in the winter transfer window, but was unsuccessful, leaving only Nwaneri, Leandro Trossard and Raheem Sterling as senior attacking options.
“It is a big blow,” said Arteta of Havertz’s absence. “That’s the challenge ahead. I love it and look forward.
“We’ve been through a lot and we have sustained the level of performance and results until this point, so we are more than capable of doing it.”
Arsenal's next PL fixtures
If they do struggle to fill the goalscoring void, Liverpool could potentially afford to drop points and still emerge triumphant.
Slot’s team have none of the same attacking constraints, with only Cody Gakpo a doubt among Sunday’s forward options, which include the Premier League’s most lethal goalscorer.
If Mohamed Salah stays fit until the end of the campaign, it is difficult to envisage any team overhauling them.
His goal and assist against Everton was a record ninth time he had registered both in a Premier League game this season, contributing to an overall league tally of 22 goals and 14 assists. He has now managed 27 goals and 19 assists in all competitions.
It is a remarkable haul that might yet yield the Premier League title, consigning that late Everton goal to history.