Football writer Alex Keble assesses the 2024/25 title race and explains why the next week could be season-defining for Liverpool.
Liverpool are in control of the title race - but there is still every reason to believe their battle with Arsenal will go to the wire especially as Arne Slot’s side enter a seven-day period that could be season-defining.
The league leaders play Aston Villa, Manchester City and Newcastle United in the space of eight days, a run so tough it’s plausible their entire seven-point lead could slip away.
Liverpool's next three fixtures
As Arsenal know all too well from past disappointment, things can change very quickly at the top.
Indeed, this is Arsenal’s third title challenge in as many years. That experience alone makes it foolish to write them off.
Liverpool's recent draw with Everton, not to mention the defeat to Plymouth in the FA Cup and the hairy end to Sunday's 2-1 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers, suggests the Reds might be slowing down.
But meanwhile, injuries have significantly weakened Arsenal’s forward line and there is no guarantee they will close the gap to Liverpool even if Slot's side fade.
Here’s a look at the state of play in the title race.
| Position Pos | Club | Played Pl | GD | Points Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Liverpool
LIV
|
25 | +36 | 60 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
ARS
|
25 | +29 | 53 |
| 3 |
Nott'm Forest
NFO
|
25 | +12 | 47 |
| 4 |
Man City
MCI
|
25 | +17 | 44 |
What is the form guide?
Liverpool and Arsenal have each collected 13 points from their last five Premier League matches and, going further back, they have identical records over the previous 10 (W7 D3) and even previous 15 games (W10 D5).
But look a little closer, and it’s Arsenal who are the real form team.
Liverpool’s FA Cup defeat to Plymouth Argyle and 3-2 loss to PSV Eindhoven in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) means they have only won three of their last six matches in all competitions.
Liverpool's last six results
| Opponent | Result | Competition |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3-2 (L) | UCL |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Bournemouth | 2-0 (W) | PL |
| Spurs | 4-0 (W) | EFLC |
| Plymouth Argyle | 1-0 (L) | FAC |
| Everton | 2-2 (D) | PL |
| Wolves | 2-1 (W) | PL |
Fatigue appears to be creeping in, and at just the wrong moment, while failure to take full advantage of their match in hand at Everton meant the 2-2 draw felt like more than just two points dropped.
Arsenal have won five of their last six matches in all competitions, only falling to a 2-0 defeat to Newcastle in the EFL Cup.
What’s more, their wins have felt more convincing than Liverpool’s.
The Gunners have conceded only one goal in their last three matches in the Premier League, and over the last five games have beaten rivals Tottenham Hotspur and thumped Manchester City 5-1.
Arsenal's last six results
| Opponent | Result | Competition |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 3-0 (W) | UCL |
|---|---|---|
| Wolves | 1-0 (W) | PL |
| Girona | 2-1 (W) | UCL |
| Man City | 5-1 (W) | PL |
| Newcastle | 2-0 (L) | EFLC |
| Leicester | 2-0 (W) | PL |
What are Liverpool’s remaining fixtures?
After facing Villa, Man City and Newcastle, things get decidedly easier.
For a start, there is space to breathe. Liverpool play only one Premier League fixture in March.
Five of their six Premier League matches through March and April are against teams in the bottom half of the table, the only exception being Fulham away on 5 April.
They will still have to contend with Champions League football and an EFL Cup final on 16 March, but there is no doubt there is more room in the calendar this spring.
May, however, contains Chelsea, Arsenal and Brighton & Hove Albion before ending - more tamely - with Crystal Palace at Anfield.
Liverpool's remaining PL fixtures
| Date | Opp. | Date | Opp. |
| 19 Feb | Aston Villa (A) | 19 Apr | Leicester (A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Feb | Man City (A) | 26 Apr | Spurs (H) |
| 26 Feb | Newcastle (H) | 3 May | Chelsea (A) |
| 8 Mar | Southampton (H) | 10 May | Arsenal (H) |
| 2 Apr | Everton (H) | 18 May | Brighton (A) |
| 5 Apr | Fulham (A) | 25 May | Crystal Palace (H) |
| 12 Apr | West Ham (H) |
What are Arsenal’s remaining fixtures?
Arsenal also have tricky fixtures coming up.
This weekend the Gunners host West Ham United - a team they’ve slipped up against in past title run-ins - before a trip to high-flying Nottingham Forest.
That is followed by a trip to Manchester United, and then back-to-back London derbies against Chelsea and Fulham, followed by a trip to a rejuvenated Everton.
The good news is Arsenal only have two Premier League matches remaining in February and another two in March.
They too have a quieter fixture list ahead, which is just as well as the injuries pile up, although of course that will depend upon how far they go in the Champions League.
Their last-16 European ties will be played on 4/5 March and 11/12 March.
The difficulty only really relents towards the end of April, not long before the crunch match at Anfield.
Arsenal's remaining PL fixtures
| Date | Opp. | Date | Opp. |
| 22 Feb | West Ham (H) | 19 Apr | Ipswich (A) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb | Nott'm Forest (A) | 26 Apr | Crystal Palace (H) |
| 9 Mar | Man Utd (A) | 3 May | Bournemouth (H) |
| 16 Mar | Chelsea (H) | 10 May | Liverpool (A) |
| 1 Apr | Fulham (H) | 18 May | Newcastle (H) |
| 5 Apr | Everton (A) | 25 May | Southampton (A) |
| 12 Apr | Brentford (H) |
Who has the better fixtures?
The Fixture Difficulty Rating (FDR) is a tool used in Fantasy Premier League which ranks fixtures from one (easy) to five (hard).
It puts Arsenal and Liverpool almost neck and neck.
Arsenal’s total score is 39, or 3.0 per game, while Liverpool’s is just below on 38, or 2.92 per game.
Could it come down to Liverpool v Arsenal?
It’s a rare treat to get a title showdown so late in the campaign, but it looks as though the third-from-last match of the season will, indeed, act like a cup final.
Liverpool’s seven-point lead means they can afford to lose a game - and/or lose three points on Arsenal - before their meeting and still be crowned champions on the day with victory.
If both teams were to win all their matches up to that point, or at least remain seven points apart, then Liverpool would win the title on the day with a draw.
But of course if the gap is any smaller and Arsenal take the points, who knows? Liverpool could all of a sudden look vulnerable.
More than likely, one way or the other, it will all come down to a single showdown at Anfield.
