Football writer Ben Bloom analyses the key details as Manchester City travel to Real Madrid for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League playoff tie.
For the fourth successive season, either Manchester City or Real Madrid will end the other’s UEFA Champions League campaign when the two sides meet on Wednesday.
The Spanish side are in pole position to progress to the round of 16 after coming from behind to win the first leg 3-2 in a dramatic finale at the Etihad Stadium.
Can Pep Guardiola overturn that deficit and mastermind victory in Madrid? Or will 15-time European champions Real make City the first English side to depart this season’s competition?
What happened in the first leg?
The entire complexion of Wednesday’s second leg would look entirely different if their initial encounter at the Etihad had ended four minutes from normal time.
At that point, City were 2-1 up after Erling Haaland had put the hosts ahead early on and then restored their lead from the penalty spot following Kylian Mbappe’s equaliser.
Parity was restored after 86 minutes when former City man Brahim Diaz struck to make it 2-2. And Jude Bellingham then found a winner two minutes into stoppage time.
The result was indicative of much of the closing stages, when Real’s unwavering confidence saw them capitalise on what appeared to be a visible lack of self-belief in the City ranks.
Watch: First-leg highlights
The two late goals made it eight that City have conceded in the final 16 minutes of their past five Champions League matches.
As well as costing Guardiola’s side, that Real Madrid double might harm the Premier League as a whole, with City’s progress impacting the chance of England’s top flight receiving five Champions League spots next season. City currently sit fourth in the Premier League table.
What did we learn?
Shorn of his injured central-midfield lynchpin Rodri, Guardiola opted to use John Stones as the defensive screen in front of the back four.
Stones performed admirably, but was part of a City defence that found themselves under siege after he moved back into his usual centre-back role for the final half-hour.
Having gone off injured on his City debut against Leyton Orient, Nico Gonzalez did not come off the bench in the first leg against Real but starred in Saturday’s win over Newcastle United, with Guardiola describing him as a “mini Rodri”.
Expect to see the former Barcelona man – rather than Stones – tasked with shackling the abundant Real Madrid attacking threat at the Bernabeu.
It would also be a surprise if Guardiola did not also start Omar Marmoush. The Egyptian only came off the bench late in the first leg, but scored a brilliant hat-trick against Newcastle.
The other main feature of Real’s win was Ederson’s vulnerability. The Brazilian goalkeeper did not cover himself in glory for either of the two late goals, although is firmly expected to retain his manager’s backing for the trip to Spain.
What does history tell us?
To put it bluntly, it is going to be seriously tough for City to progress.
The Bernabeu is a formidable cauldron, with Real winning 37 of their 58 Champions League knockout ties at home. City have played six times at the ground, claiming victory just once.
Things get even tougher when Real’s lead is taken into account. On only six out of 30 occasions have the Spanish side not qualified after winning a Champions League first leg.
When the second leg takes place at their home ground – as it does on Wednesday – Real have failed to progress just once, against Ajax in 2019.
Conversely, this will be the fifth occasion City have trailed heading into a Champions League knockout tie second leg and they are yet to qualify from any of them.
While there are a wealth of statistics against Guardiola's side, City might at least be heartened somewhat by their overall record against Real. Of their 13 encounters, both teams have won four, with five draws (one of which, last season, then saw Carlo Ancelotti’s side triumph on penalties).
What is the team news?
Real Madrid overcame something of a defensive crisis to win the first leg, with Lucas Vazquez, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger and David Alaba all absent for the trip to Manchester.
That left midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni and the inexperienced Raul Asencio to fill in as centre-backs, but both Rudiger and Alaba have now returned to training and are in contention to play on Wednesday.
Man City have been given a significant boost with the news that Haaland, Ruben Dias, Nathan Ake and Jack Grealish have all travelled with the squad.
Haaland, appeared to jar his right knee late in Saturday’s win against Newcastle, while Dias and Ake missed out entirely.
Elsewhere, Kevin De Bruyne was rested at the weekend and Manuel Akanji is definitely out.
What have the managers said?
Carlo Ancelotti: “We weren’t going to decide the tie here [at the Etihad Stadium]. We’ve got a slight advantage, it was a good performance and we’re happy with the result.
“We created a lot of chances and they caused us problems from an attacking perspective.
“We have to prepare well for the return leg, but this game will give us confidence and strength for what lies ahead.”
Pep Guardiola: “The margin to win at the Bernabeu from that position, everybody knows the percentage to go through is one per cent, or I don’t know what, but it will be minimal.
“We will try, that’s for sure. We are going like we always have done but, this season, the reality is we have been miles away. We have been really, really poor in performances and results this season.
“For one game, Saturday [against Newcastle], we played really good, but it’s not going to change the opinion, the reality. But, of course, it’s better to travel to Madrid with this result.
“The chance is minor because the result was not good.
“Five minutes to go, with 2-1, it would have been different. But, as long as we have a chance, we are going to take it. We’ll see what happens.”