Big Question: Will Man City v Liverpool produce another twist in title race?

Football writer Ben Bloom feels a first Liverpool league win at the Etihad Stadium since Pep Guardiola took charge in 2016 would heap the pressure on Arsenal in the title race. 

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Manchester City and Liverpool: the only two teams to win the Premier League over the past seven years, and the biggest rivals of that era.

Late-season showdowns between the pair have often had a decisive feel about them, determining who might prevail in their chase for the title.

Of course, this season is rather different. When the two sides meet at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday, only one will have their mind on lifting the Premier League Trophy.

Languishing – by their lofty standards – down in fourth place, a huge 17 points off the pace, City are attempting to salvage something from the wreckage of a season that has unexpectedly seen a meek title defence, an early UEFA Champions League exit, and only the FA Cup as a remaining silverware option.

Their visitors are eight points clear at the top of the table, the dominant force in Europe and are already into the EFL Cup final.

Yet, Sunday’s match is far from a foregone conclusion. After dropping points in two of their past three league games – and clinging on to win the other – Liverpool would dearly love a confidence-boosting triumph to calm nerves that are starting to fray.

Make or break

Faced with a gruelling fixture list, February always appeared decisive for Arne Slot’s side. Sunday’s short trip to Manchester will be Liverpool’s fourth of five Premier League games crammed into a 15-day period.

They began the spell with a game in hand over their rivals and will end it having played one match more.

So far, things have not quite gone to plan. A 22-match unbeaten league streak remains intact, but, in contrast to their serene swatting aside of opposing sides earlier in the season, performances have been unconvincing.

There was the late James Tarkowski equaliser in a 2-2 draw at Everton – plus the multiple red cards that followed the final whistle – a nerve-jangling 2-1 win over struggling Wolverhampton Wanderers, and another 2-2 draw at Aston Villa earlier this week.

However, their points advantage at the top of the table has scarcely been stronger for almost three months. 

Second-placed Arsenal had the chance to close the gap to just five points on Saturday but lost at home for the first time this season in the Premier League, falling 1-0 to West Ham United.

It puts even greater significance on Man City v Liverpool, with Liverpool having the chance to go 11 points clear with a win on Sunday.

Title race

Position Pos	Club	Played Pl	GD	Points Pts
1	Liverpool LIV	33	+44	79
2	Arsenal ARS	34	+34	67
3	Man City MCI	34	+23	61
4	Nott'm Forest NFO	33	+14	60

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There is, of course, a sense of irony that the team Arsenal fans need a favour from is City, their vanquishers in each of the last two campaigns.

Unhappy memories

A telling statistic into City’s dominance over recent years is Liverpool’s record at the Etihad, where they have not won a Premier League game since Pep Guardiola took charge nine years ago.

That is eight successive league matches in which City are unbeaten against Liverpool at home, although they did lose a Champions League quarter-final second leg against Jurgen Klopp’s side in 2018.

It is a fixture that has provided some memorable moments, from John Stones’ goalline clearance (the ball halted 1.12cm from fully crossing the line) which helped City secure a crucial 2-1 triumph on their way to the title in 2019, to Liverpool twice coming from behind to grab a 2-2 draw as they fought to keep pace with City in the 2022 title race.

Despite their poor record at the Etihad Stadium, Liverpool have been a different prospect on their travels this season.

While every other team has lost at least twice, they are the only side unbeaten away from home, scoring nine more goals than anyone else.

No. of away points won this season

Guardiola said he will not know about Erling Haaland’s availability for Sunday until closer to kick-off, after the Norwegian missed the Champions League defeat at Real Madrid with a knee issue. Defender Stones has been ruled out for an extended period.

Asked what he anticipates from the weekend's game, Slot said: “What I always expect from City since Pep is there - a great football team that can play so well.

“They’ve had maybe one or two months in the seven or eight years he’s there now that weren’t the best, maybe partly because of injuries as well.

“Injuries come back, they’ve signed three or four players, I can see them coming back.

“You have to suffer as well and work really hard to keep them away from your goal because they are so, so good in ball possession.”

What next?

A morale-boosting Liverpool win on Sunday could prove significant in the title race, given Arsenal face Nottingham Forest, Manchester United and Chelsea in their following three matches.

Liverpool’s remaining PL fixtures

Once they have dealt with Newcastle next week, Slot’s side actually play just one Premier League game in the five weeks that follow – against bottom side Southampton.

Instead, March’s focus will be on cup action, taking on Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League last 16 and Newcastle in the EFL Cup final. Arsenal have been drawn against PSV Eindhoven.

Arsenal's remaining PL fixtures

When they return to Premier League duties, four of Liverpool’s five games in April are against teams in the bottom half of the table, before a potential title decider against Arsenal on 10 May.

Their Sunday trip to Man City will help to determine what is at stake.